1. Seoul Development Institute Building a TDM Impact Analysis System for the Introduction of a Short-Term Congestion Management Program in Seoul Jin-Ki Eom, Kee-Yeon Hwang, Ikki Kim Researcher of Seoul Development Institute (SDI) San4-5, Yejang-dong, Jung-ku, Seoul 100-250, Korea E-mail : eom@sdi.re.kr

2. Seoul Development Institute SCMP(Sort-term Congestion Management Program) SECOMM(Seoul Congestion Management Model) SECOMM Case Study Conclusion Outline

3. Seoul Development Institute Seoul has been known for the notoriety of its severe traffic congestion. In order to mitigate the congestion problems, the transportation policy of Seoul Metropolitan Government had been mainly focused on the supply of transportation systems until the early 1990’s. The sharp decrease of investment on transportation infrastructures followed by recent economic recession. The massive implementation of subway system does not reduce auto rider-ship as much as we expected. Why Seoul needs SCMP ? Short-term Congestion Management Program

4. Seoul Development Institute 1. Setting up Short-term Target of Traffic Management 2. Selecting TDM Programs to Reduce the Excessive Auto Demand 3. Building a Methodology for Forecasting the Expected Impacts of Programs(ex. SECOMM) 4. Monitoring Traffic Conditions Regularly 2. SCMP (Short-term Congestion Management Program)

5. Seoul Development Institute Assumption Structure of the SECOMM Mode Split Model Assignment Model Link Travel Speed Adjustment Function 3. SECOMM (SEoul COngestion Management Model)

6. Seoul Development Institute Assumption The assumptions of SECOMM are as follows Mode split and route choice are variable while trip generation and trip distribution are not in short-run Investment is fixed in the short-run

7. Seoul Development Institute Structure of the SECOMM

8. Seoul Development Institute Data Requirements

9. Seoul Development Institute Process of Building Mode Split Model

10. Seoul Development Institute Nested Tree for Each Alternative Logit Model (1)

11. Seoul Development Institute The Parameter Values and T-Values of Nested-Logit Models Logit Model (2)

12. Seoul Development Institute Assignment Process

13. Seoul Development Institute Using the adjustment factor, We can predict link travel speed Process of Predicting Link Travel Speed

14. Seoul Development Institute Study Process Structure of Emme/2 Macro Study Results 4. SECOMM Case Study Study Title : Impact Analysis of Gasoline Tax Increase

15. Seoul Development Institute Study Process

16. Seoul Development Institute Structure of Emme/2 Macro

17. Seoul Development Institute The Speed Changes by Gasoline Tax Increase Case Study Results (1)

18. Seoul Development Institute Auto-Mode Split Ratio Changes Resulting from Gasoline Tax Increase Case Study Results (2)

19. Seoul Development Institute Monitoring Data Response to Oil Price Increased

20. Seoul Development Institute Peak Hour Auto Volume Changes Resulted by Gasoline Tax Increase Case Study Results (3)

21. Seoul Development Institute SECOMM is a TDM impacts analysis system integrating mode choice model and trip assignment model in a module and iterating the interactions between them until the stop conditions are accomplished. Using SECOMM, we can quickly forecast the impacts of TDM therefore, we can implement SCMP in Seoul. To enhance the usefulness of SECOMM, there are several things to be done: checking the estimated results of SECOMM through continuous monitoring on traffic situation in Seoul updating the O-D data at least every 5 years updating the network and travel behavior data 5. Conclusions