2. Cal y Mayor y Asociados, S.C.www.calymayor.com.mx Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 22-24 October 2003 17th International EMME/2 UGM Calgary, Alberta, Canada Sergio A. Lugo Serrato

3. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 2 Corridor Characteristics LRT Line Length: 12 km Population in Corridor: 815,000 Existing Transit Routes in Corridor: 50+ Corridor Transit Demand: 392,000 daily passengers Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

4. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 3 Study Overview Objectives Estimate data to determine sizing and route of LRT Estimate social benefits and fee income Methodology Results Transit Corridor Analysis Demand Characterization LRT Demand Social benefits estimation Revenue estimation Demand Analysis Supply Primary Information Secondary Information Demand VOT: Mode Selection Model Corridor Analysis Ridership Estimation Social Benefits Estimation Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

5. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 4 Mexico City Overview Population 20 Million Annual Growth Rate 1.6% Registered Vehicles 3.9 Million 4% are transit vehicles Trips 29 Million daily 5.5 Million in 2hr peak period 81.7% use transit Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

6. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 5 Transit in Mexico City Mode Share 58% Low capacity transit 18% Private transportation 14% Metro (subway) and LRT 7% Buses 3% Suburban Metro Statistics 4.2 Million daily passengers 175 Stations, 11 Lines 3 Lines account for 65% of all passengers Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

7. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 6 Corridor Characteristics Population 815,000 inhabitants in direct LRT access area Nicolas Romero and Atizapán are low – medium income residential areas. Annual growth rates are between 0.50 and 2.80%. Employment 125,000 employments in direct LRT access area Tlalnepantla is one of the most industrial areas in MCMA M A P K E Y Zones, Project Area Municipalities Project Area Metro Stations Main highways LRT Route Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

8. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 7 Population and Employment Density M A P K E Y Population/km2 0 to 2,500 2,501 to 5,000 5,001 to 10,000 10,001 to 15,000 15,001 to 20,000 20,001 to 30,000 30,001 to 60,000 No data inhabitants Population M A P K E Y Employments/km2 0 a 100 101 a 200 201 a 400 401 a 600 601 a 1,000 1,001 a 5,000 5,000 a 10,000 10,001 a 15,000 W/o data Inhabitants Employment Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

9. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 8. Corridor Traffic Characteristics Private Transportation Only one main road gives access to corridor Blvd. Lopez Mateos has 3 lanes each direction, while feeder roads are one lane each direction 30,000 vehicles use corridor daily 50% are transit vehicles Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

10. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 9 Corridor Transit Characteristics Transit Vehicles Peak periods are identified at 7-8 AM and 7-8 PM with (AM 1,385 transit vehicles; PM 1,260 vehicles) 39% of these are microbuses (24 seated, 16 standing capacity) 32% Buses (40 seating, 40 standing) 29% Combis/Vans (12 seated, no standing) Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

11. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 10 Corridor Transit Characteristics Transit Observed Demand Demand peak periods are identified between 7-9 AM and 7-8 PM 62% of these trips are HB work related, 27% are shopping or school related, and 11% are non-HB work related 58% of these passengers have a low income, 38% average and, 4% high Most of the day, demand is below capacity offered by transit operators Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

12. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 11 OD Trip Distribution Trip Patterns Most the trips in the morning exit the project area for jobs in Mexico City, PM passengers return home at night Major Generation Points Progreso San Pedro Atizapán Major Attraction Points Tlalnepantla Satelite Naucalpan Atizapán Trip Generation Trip Attraction Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

13. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 12 Stated Preference Survey Utility Function Parameters IVTT in minutes on board a bus, microbus or combi/van IVTT in minutes on board new LRT IVTT in minutes on board Metro (subway) system Fare in pesos from true OD Boardings number of boardings made from O-D Findings Passengers value more time on bus than in Metro LRT is seen as a better mode than bus and Metro All demand segments are very sensible to the number of boardings made during their trip These functions were used in a transit mode choice logit model U = A  (tbus) + B  (tLRT) + C  (tmetro) + D  (fare) + E  (boardings) Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

14. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 13 LRT ridership (Route Ixtacala) No Integration Scenario 12,660 pax/hour 161,000 pax/day US$0.50 fee Existing routes competing with new LRT Total Integration Scenario 26,580 pax/hour 356,200 pax/day US$0.50 fee No existing routes competing with new LRT Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

15. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 14 LRT ridership (Route Juarez) No Integration Scenario 13,960 pax/hour 178,000 pax/day US$0.50 fee Existing routes competing with new LRT Total Integration Scenario 30,417 pax/hour 392,800 pax/day US$0.50 fee No existing routes competing with new LRT 10% increase from other route Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

16. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 15 LRT boarding and alighting Findings Most of the LRT are part of longer trip. Initial boardings are made at Progreso and San Pedro, XX miles away from initial LRT Station. Alightings are made at Tlalnepantla, either for jobs there or for connections with other transit routes. Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

17. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 16 Sensitivity Analysis and Time Savings Sensitivity Analysis Fare of US$0.50 maximizes revenue for LRT operator. Price Elasticity of Demand is 0.85 at a fare of US$0.50. Time Savings Time savings for the no-integration scenario are 8,311 man-hours during the AM peak hour. These savings represent US$ 16.5 Million a year. For the total integration scenario, savings sum up to US$ 29.9 Million a year. Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

18. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 17 Demand Forecast Forecast 2 scenarios were developed, population growth rates and population growth rates plus increase in VOT. From 177,000 daily passengers estimated for 2002, in 2013 are expected 201,000 and in 2028 230,000. Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions

19. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 18 Conclusions Existing Conditions Frequencies offered by transit operators exceed demand requirements, causing delays to other traffic that share corridor. Existing transit demand for the corridor equals 392,000 daily passengers. Lack of route structure and organization increases congestion and travel time unreliability. LRT Results Estimated ridership for new LRT is 177,000 daily passengers (45% of total potential demand). If transit route integration is achieved, demand would increase 353,000. Expected annual revenue for the no-integration is US$ 30 Million. Project Status Project is on funding stage Corridor Analysis Transit in Mexico City Introduction LRT Demand Conclusions