1. Presented to Time of Day Subcommittee May 9, 2011 Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS

2. Background ► Currently not a part of FSUTMS ► Identified as a top priority by Model Task Force in 2008 ► Essential in supporting MTF’s high-priority activities  New Starts  Air Quality Analysis  Pricing studies  Transit Forecasting 2

3. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Background ► TOD research project divided into two phases  Phase I: Fixed TOD Factoring and Procedure Development  Phase II: Development and implementation of TOD peak spreading model. 3

4. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Why Consider TOD Modeling in FSUTMS ► Characteristics of travel vary by time of day and location ► Knowledge of temporal distribution of travel demand provides useful insights for planning and operations ► Daily models not sensitive to time dependent travel behavior Source: FHWA, Our Nation’s Highway, 2010 4

5. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Why Consider TOD Modeling in FSUTMS ► Required by FTA for New Starts Alternatives Analysis ► Required by FHWA and EPA for Vehicle Emissions Analysis ► Required for analysis of transportation policies that have temporal sensitivity (e.g. Managed Lanes, Pricing, Alternative Work Schedules) 5

6. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Static Time of Day Model ► Fixed TOD factors derived from local travel patterns. (The common practice)  Relatively easy to implement  Assumes travel patterns will remain the same in the future  Not sensitive to LOS changes ► Adequate for regions where congestion growth is limited or negligible ► Essential for transit modeling to reflect changes in transit service and fares from peak to off-peak periods 6

7. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Time of Day Choice Feedback Model ► Dynamic model, predicts shifts in time of travel ► Can model “peak spreading” over time. ► Sensitive to trip purposes and changes in LOS on specific routes. ► Useful in regions where peak period is greater than two hours and growing. 7

8. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Approach for FSUTMS TOD Modeling ► Implement TOD model after Trip Generation ► Static TOD model for base year scenario  Fixed TOD factors developed from observed local data. ► TOD Choice feedback model for future year scenarios  Incremental logit model form  Feedback of TOD choice to Trip Distribution  Fixed TOD factors for initial TOD stratification ► TOD periods of 1 hour to several hours duration 8

9. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS The Existing Model Structure Trip Generation (Daily) Trip Distribution (Daily) Mode Choice (Daily) Trip Assignment: (Highway – Daily; Transit – PK/OP) Any Scenario Year 9

10. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Apply TOD Choice (Peak Spreading) Model by Trip Purpose Trip Generation Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors Trip Distribution by TOD Mode Choice by TOD Highway Assignment by TOD Skim Base Year LOS by TOD Trip Generation Factor P’s & A’s by Fixed TOD Factors Trip Distribution by TOD Mode Choice by TOD Assignment by TOD Skim Future Year LOS by TOD Base YearFuture Year Convergence? No Yes END Transit Assignment The Revised Model Structure (Draft) Adjusted TOD Trips and Updated TOD LOS 10

11. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS TOD Choice (Peak Spreading) Model ► Incremental logit model ► Driven by difference in travel impedance ► Apply in future year where significant congestion growth is expected ► Requires all TOD periods to be modeled explicitly ► Model applied for each trip purpose independently ► Creates adjusted trip tables for iterative feedback through trip distribution, mode choice and assignment 11

12. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Conclusion ► TOD choice modeling in FSUTMS will provide:  Improved understanding of temporal travel behavior  Improved forecast of highway LOS by TOD  Improved estimation of highway speeds for modeling transit, resulting in improved transit forecasts ► Logical stepping stone to implementation in an activity-based FSUTMS  TOD choice more robust when implemented with additional explanatory variables, such as family structure, joint travel, income and mode constraints 12

13. Time of Day Modeling in FSUTMS Questions? Thank You! 13