1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologico Bologna Italy Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Contents  Description of Northern Italy Network for Forecast Aerosol pollution  Winter test case (February 2004)  Open questions and further developments

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Why NINFA Starting from 2006: daily runs, providing hourly air quality analysis and forecasts  Air quality forecast in the Po Valley  Air quality evaluation scenarios for regional and local reduction Action Plan  Background fields for urban models (i.e. ISC, ADMS- Urban) used by ARPA local departments.

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen METEO: LAMI (7*7 km) CHIMERE (10*10 km) EMISSIONS: CTN_ACE (5*5 km) BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Prev'air (0.5*0.5 degree) OUTPUT: O3, NO2, SO2, PM NINFA

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA (ER-Chimere-regional) 10*10km Prev’air (Chimere-continental) 0.5*0.5 degree Urban Models (ADMS-Urban)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Emission Inventory CTN-ACE(National Topic Center on Air Climate and Emissions) Input data:  Italian National Inventory 2000 and EMEP 2000 (NOx,NH3,SO2,PM10,CO,VOC) Output data:  Gridded emissions for two national domains Northern (BPA) and Southern Italy (MED)  Time profiles (EPA AP-42, EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook v3.0, Lombardia regional inventory)  Chemical VOC speciation (UK NAEI)  Chemical speciation profiles and PM granulometric classes distribution (EPA, Speciate v3.2)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen PM10 Annual Emission

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Winter test case: february 2004  Model:Chimere regional 10*10 km (release V200410A)  Boundary Conditions: “re-analysis” Chimere continental (0.5*0.5 degree)  Meteo: Lama “re-analysis” Lokal Model (7*7 km)  Emissions: Data set CTN-ACE (5*5 km)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Average PM10 concentration feb NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level General under estimation of PM10 Some ‘hot-spot’ close to energy power plan

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Emission Pm10 (sector 1)/ Pm10 tot

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level Emissions sector 1 at 4 th level NINFA4: Emissions sector 3 at 2 nd level Other emissions at 1 st level

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Winter test case: february 2004 Left panel: Continental CHIMERE driven by MM5 (labelled CONT) Right panel :Regional CHIMERE driven by LM (labelled NINFA4)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA4 better reproduces spatial structures although aerosol modelling results are under estimated

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Rural Background stations Good agreement at Ghegardi and Montecuccolino (TEOM station)!!

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (1)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (2) PM10 simulated concentrations are generally three or four times lower than the observed ones. NINFA4 gives better results

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Granulometric classes distributions and aerosol species (spatial average) Secondary organic aerosol very low!!! phno3>ppm!!!

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA4 reproduces patterns in urban areas (Milan, Turin, Venice) as well as along major roads Average NO2 concentration feb. 2004

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Rural Background stations

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (1)

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (2) NINFA4 seems fairly reproduce NO 2 concentrations over the major part of stations

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Discussion and conclusions  NINFA has been implemented at ARPA-SIM. This model provides simulation results for PM and gas species.  Compared to continental model NINFA improve substantially NO 2 simulation probably due to more accuracy of anthropogenic emission; comparisons with available data at background and suburban stations give acceptable results on PM10 only in few stations although NINFA gives better results. Some open questions:  The introduction of Point source emission scheme could improve substantially model skill especially over Po Valley?  Secondary organic matter vs. resuspension

1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Further works  Implementation of latest version of Chimere  Test with increasing the model secondary organic matter and/or resuspension  Long-term simulations (summer and winter seasons)