1 Developing a programme for the implementation of the 2008 SNA & supporting Statistics Oliver Chinganya Oliver Chinganya Statistical Capacity Building Statistical Capacity Building Stats Dept. African Dev. Bank Stats Dept. African Dev. Bank Seminar on the Implementation of 2008 SNA Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013

Outline Introduction Key findings GDP revisions Base years Bank Program to support countries Way Forward 2

3 Concerns were raised in the international press about the quality of statistics in Africa – particularly GDP estimates The impression left by this bad publicity was that African statistics are inherently unreliable and that foreign investors are in danger of being seriously misled about the true size and growth of African economies. Introduction

4 The concerns needs to be addressed to put the record straight. Especially at the critical time when Africa is witnessing a renaissance of its economic benefits. Introduction

5  But are Africa’s statistics as bad as they are being portrayed by some critics? In attempting to answer this question, the African Development Bank in March 2013 decided to undertake a survey to assess the reliability of GDP data, including the availability of survey data, price indices, and base years for constant price GDP. Introduction

6 Upward revisions due to adoption of new SNA version Improved coverage and classification Rebasing of base years due to revised population figures, and good use of recent survey data (agric., industrial or households) Better coverage of informal sector activities seem to be responsible for most of the upward revisions, (except in Ghana) Most countries publish GDP estimates with a lag of one to two years – this is a significant improvement compared to 10 years ago Richer countries are not guaranteed to have good statistics Some poor countries appear to give high priority to their national accounts statistics e.g. Niger, Ethiopia and Mozambique Poor quality scores in statistics – Cong Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria Key findings

7 African GDPs in both size and direction are commensurate with those of ASIA and OECD ◦ Thus, African countries do not in general make larger revisions compared to countries in other regions Overall, GDP estimates in Africa are NOT nearly as bad as recently suggested However, the survey points out some weakness which needs to be addressed, such as ◦ Stricter adherence to SNA guidelines ◦ Adoption of a regular program of surveys of household, enterprises, & agriculture ◦ Etc. Need for enhanced and coordinated support for investment in data gathering for economic statistics and make data available to the public Key findings

8 Asia GDP revisions GDP revisions

9 OECD GDP revisions GDP revisions

10 AFRICA GDP revisions GDP revisions

11 Africa GDP Base Years GDP Base Years

12 GDP Base Years Base years used:  9 - Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Guinea, Malawi, Sao Tome & Principe, Togo and Zimbabwe – 2007 or later  19 – at least 10 but less than 20 years  8 – Benin, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo Republic, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria and Sudan- more than 20 years

13 Bank program to support countries  Ultimate objective - assist countries produce timely, reliable & comparable economics statistics  Source data  Promote the introduction of “economic census” so that countries can re-base economic indicators around the same period  Household and Establishment survey program  Encourage countries to establish Statistical Business Registers as a basis for improving economic statistics  Assist countries immigrate to SNA 2008 within the SHaSA framework  Encourage peer review process of economic statistics

14 Way Forward Countries to complete the diagnostic framework questionnaires Scoping workshops comprising the major regional & sub- regional organizations & selected African countries. Two sub-regional workshops consisting of Anglophone countries (SADC, COMESA & the 5 Anglophone ECOWAS countries) & Francophone countries (consisting of the 4 UMA countries & the Francophone countries in West Africa) ◦ Assessment of the completed Diagnostic Framework for National Accounts and Supporting Economic Statistics (DF-NA&ES) by the countries

15 Way Forward Finalization of a Regional Implementation Plan Development of phased national implementation plans - based on national specificities

16 Thank you