GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence.

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Presentation transcript:

GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence

Why the Dog Didn’t Bite (and the Cold War Stayed Cold) Balance of power? Or “balance of terror?”

A Puzzle for Realists Classical realism: Superpower Behavior Ideological moderation Fear of escalation Neo-realism: Structure of the System The stability of bipolarity Communication to overcome PD

Balance of Terror

Deterrence Defined: The threat to punish another actor if it takes a particular negative action (such as attacking one’s own state or one’s allies) One conditon: The threat must be credible.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)

Nuclear Technology Atomic bomb (1945): Fission Hydrogen bomb (1952): Fusion Technological “advances”

Delivery Systems (I)

Delivery Systems (II)

Delivery Systems (III)

Scared Straight

U.S.– Soviet Arms Control Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) ABM Treaty (1972) SALT (1972 and 1979) START (1991)

Star Wars

Here we go again?

Global Arms Control

Proliferation NPT (1968) By then, France, UK and China also had joined nuclear club. In spite of NPT, the technology spread India and Pakistan never signed. Declared nuclear powers in 1970s. Israel never signed. It is undeclared nuclear power, but probably has a hundred warheads Iraq’s nuclear program was dismantled in 1990s.

North Korea Near war in ’94 over plutonium production Left NPT in ‘03 over uranium enrichment 6-8 nukes Diplomatic breakthrough?

Iran Signed NPT But enriching uranium For civilian or military purposes? Israel should be “wiped off the map…”

India’s Special Status 100 nukes? US cooperation Why not Pakistan?

Proliferation for Profit Pakistan –> Iran, Libya, North Korea China –> Iran Dr. A. Q. Khan

Testing CTBT (1996) Won’t take effect until signed and ratified by 44 states India and Pakistan refused to sign; conducted their own tests in late 1990s An attempt to divide world into “nuclear haves” and “nuclear have-nots?” U.S. Senate voted in 1999 against ratification Bush administration opposes it

Nuclear Hypocrisy

US Response We’re taking action … Real threat: Rogue states Non-state actors

Chemical and Biological Weapons