“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” NCEP CONDUIT UPDATE Brent A Gordon NCEP Central Operations January 31, 2006

2 Topics Current Status of NCEP Model Production –See Handout 2006 Changes 2006 New Data Availability Let Us Hear From You

3 Current Status of NCEP Model Production Please see handout Highlights –GFS T382/T190 – 64 levels –NAM – Eta Frozen –RUC 13 km –Ocean Forecast System – Atlantic Ocean (25S to 76N) –Global SST analysis – 1/12 degree resolution –CFS – Two runs per day to 10 months –SREF – 6 new WRF members – 21 total per cycle

Changes GFS –Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3rd Qtr FY2006 T382/T levels –Grid point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –0.5 degree global grids available to 180 hours NAM –Eta model replaced by WRF/NMM – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –BUFR Soundings extend to 84 hours (20-30 minute delay) – 14 February 2006 –06 & 18 UTC start time delayed 25 minutes – 7 March 2006

Changes North American Ensemble Forecast System (Global Ensembles) – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –Increase membership from 10 to15 members per cycle 60 members per day –Bias correction and climate anomaly forecasts –Implement ensemble transform method –Major product overhaul ENSPOST, ENSSTAT, ENSEMBLE product files to be removed Will be replaced by higher resolution individual ensemble members Will allow for more data to be posted to public servers Ensemble mean, spread, and probability data to become available

Changes Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –RTMA is First Component of Analysis of Record –5 km Analysis in Support of NDFD requirements SREF – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –Increase from two to four runs per day –Add bias corrected precipitation Air Quality – 4 th Qtr FY2006 –Expanded domain to cover entire CONUS Wave model –10 member ensemble wave model – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 –Great Lakes wave model – 4 th Qtr FY2006

New Products Following the end of the NWS moratorium the following data sets will be added to their servers –GFS 0.5 degree GRIB2 grids to 180 hours (currently 84 hours) GFS regional grids added to NOAAPORT –13 km RUC to 9 or 12 hours (GRIB2) –Begin conversion of GRIB1 datasets to GRIB2 Web site for upcoming changes: –

8 Talk to Us! Let UNIDATA staff know your needs throughout the year! NCEP dataflow and product team are subscribed to the CONDUIT and CRAFT lists. Web site for upcoming changes: –