1. The Collaborative Effort Between Stony Brook University and the National Weather Service Part 3 – Integration of Mesoscale Models in Operational Weather Forecasting Jeffrey S. Tongue NOAA/NWS Upton, NY Matt Jones, Brian Colle and Michael Charles Stony Brook University

2. 2003 What NWP Models are available to the Operational Forecaster ???

3. NCEP: –NGM (*) –Eta (12km Operational (*), 8km HIRES (NMM)) –GFS (*) –8km WRF Experimental –RUC (*) 40/20 km and 10 km –SREF (15 members >> 20) Eta RSM Eta KF RUC (Grell) –GFS Ensemble (*) (11 Members)

4. Others: Environment Canada –GEM –GSM –Ensemble GSM (16 Member) NOGAPS ECMWF(*) –Ensembles (50 Members) UKMET (*) Various Workstation Eta (*) Numerous MM5 (*)

5. What’s a Forecaster to do???

6. Maintain Situational Awareness ! Formulate Synoptic Scale Conceptual Model Identify Potential Mesoscale Processes Utilizes Climatology Maintain knowledge of Model Details/ Parameterizations

7. MOST IMPORTANTLY !! OBSERVATIONS –Surface –Satellite –Radar –Others

8. Case 1 – October 27th Heavy Rain Over the Northeast

9. Valid: 12 UTC 27 OCT 03

10. Surface: Temps/Isobars

11. 850 hPa: Heights/RH

12. 24 HR Model QPF

13. 00 UTC 27 Oct 03

14. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 737 PM EST SUN OCT 26 2003.DISCUSSION...WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE RAIN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY WEST AND NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THEN INCREASE PROBABILITY TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALSO IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...WITH AREAS OF FOG ADDED THIS TO ALL THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS TO GO WITH THE 100 PERCENT COVERAGE. &&

15. 11:15 PM 6.7 um

18. How does NWS Improve its Coordination and Collaboration ?????????

20. 12 Hr POP Ending: 12 UTC 27 Nov 03

21. Sky Cover Valid: 12 UTC 27 Nov 03

22. Dew Point Valid: 12 UTC 27 Nov 03

23. Temp/Wind Valid: 12 UTC 27 Nov 03

24. 6 Hr QPF Ending: 12 UTC 27 Oct 03

25. 6 Hr QPF Ending: 18 UTC 27 Oct 03

26. 6 Hr QPF Ending: 00 UTC 28 Oct 03

27. Sky Cover (36 Hr Fcst) Valid: 12 UTC 28 Nov 03

28. How do we SOLVE This Problem?

33. High Resolution Deterministic Models Result in … “ Highly Detailed INACCURATE forecasts ”

34. Can Ensembles Provide a better starting point????

37. Oct 29 th Event More Heavy Rain !!! MM5 Ensemble Members Provide Different Results

49. Something Needs to Change!

57. Summary Move away from Deterministic Models to Populate the GFE… The Model of the Day! Higher Resolution – Better Model! The XYZ Model “looks” more realistic The XYZ Model “appears” better initialized “Populated the Grids” with the XYZ model NO MORE !

58. Summary (cont) Move towards Ensemble populated forecasts. –Means/deviations/category/extremes –Will it capture the atmosphere? QPF Wind Temperature Discover the benefits and weaknesses of ensembles. Continue to “Add Value” where possible.

59. Plans… Improve NWS bandwidth Issues. Integrate Ensemble Data in AWIPS. Integrate Ensemble Data into GFE. Develop Smart Tools. Expand Initial Conditions Ensemble (Canadian/NoGAPS) Training Staff –PBL, Parameterizations, etc Learn Refine