1. Better Forecasting Bureau
An Introduction to Forecasting
By: Joe Finlon & Steve Travis

2. Current Conditions Always check current conditions first Look outside!
Check out satellite and RADAR (weathertap.com)
Check current obs, METAR
Atmospheric Soundings (SPC)

3. Look Back! Check what’s been going on the last couple of hours
This can help forecast what may happen in the next couple hours

4. Look at Models (the computer type)
NAM (Forecast hours 0-60)
GFS (0-240)
ECMWF
WRF (0-48)
RUC (0-12)
SREF

5. NAM Good for some larger mesoscale features
Good for basic temperatures and precip
Time resolution every 6 hours
Larger scale 80km grid
North American domain

6. GFS Long time scale (as much as 16 days)
Only actually good out to ~7 days
Spectral model
Global scale
Covers the same phenomena as NAM

7. ECMWF European model Like the NAM, but better
Most accurate model overall
Costs money, so we don’t have it

8. WRF Smaller time scale than NAM and GFS Higher resolution
Good for mesoscale processes
Handles lake-effect well
Good for winds

9. RUC Short range forecasts Updates every hour
Good for initial analysis and nowcasting

10. SREF Combination of many different models
Good for general weather trends
Not good for precise forecasts
Currently last in forecast game rankings

11. What to look for Upper level heights (300, 500)
This gives you an idea of troughs and ridges
Look at winds for jet streams and divergence
Must look at upper levels to get an idea of what’s happening in lower levels

12. Lower Levels Mean sea level pressure and winds Temperatures
Look for surface highs and lows
Temperatures
Precipitation
10m winds

13. Temperature forecasting
Look at winds (10m)
Cloud cover (RH mb)
Mixing from higher levels
Precipitation
Dew points

14. Precipitation Precipitable water
Amount of water in the atmosphere
Plot precipitation (compare different models)

15. Prepare a forecast Make a forecast for 6z tonight and 18z tomorrow
Temperatures at each time
Precip amount at each time (6 hour precip)
Winds