1. 1 Aviation Forecasting – Works in Progress NCVF – Ceiling & Visibility CoSPA – Storm Prediction A Joint Effort Among: MIT Lincoln Laboratory NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division Funded by FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program Paul Herzegh, NCAR 26 Feb 2009

2. 2 NCVF CONUS C&V Probabilistic Forecast Early steps toward a D3 (experimental) decision in FY11.

3. 3 NCVF – The CONUS C&V Probabilistic Forecast Status ▪ FY09 first year for probabilistic development ▪ FY11 D3 ‘Experimental’ evaluation / decision ▪ FY13 D4 ‘Operational’ evaluation / decision Features ▪ 1-12 hr forecasts initially; Later extended toward 24-30 hours. ▪ Consolidates NWP, MOS, & observations-based methods. ▪ Rapid updating; Major refresh hourly; Minor refresh 15-min. ▪ 0-hr ‘current diagnosis’ - probabilistic C&V in observation gap areas. - Will use previous 1-hr Prob Forecast info in gap areas. - Will be constrained to match obs at observing points. - Will be future replacement to today’s Analysis product (NCVA).

4. 4 Area Forecasts – a foundation product NAM MOS (6-84 hr) GFS MOS (6-84 hr) GFS LAMP (1-25 hr) GFS Global Ens MOS (Future) NAM (3 hr res) RUC (1 hr res) SREF (Experimental) WRF-NMM 4 km WRF-ARW 4 km WRF- NMM 12 km MOS > Op’l NWP > WFO Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > AWC > TAFs CONUS TAFs Operational C&V Forecasting Tools Today WFO Forecaster

5. 5 NCVF V1 Concept Tests GFS LAMP PDF DevRUC Time-Lag Trials MOS > Op’l NWP > FY09 Area Forecasts – a foundation product NAM MOS (6-84 hr) GFS MOS (In LAMP) GFS Global Ens MOS (Exp’l) NAM (In SREF) SREF (Experimental) AWC > WRF-NMM 4 km WRF-ARW 4 km WRF- NMM 12 km Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRR Time-Lag Trials Time-Lagged Ensembles (TLE) - What is the C&V predictive skill of the TLE? - Factors:Fewer members; Variable # of members; Less diversity than conventional ensemble Merging TLE with LAMP PDF - Can we achieve an increase in skill? FY09 – Two key concept tests

6. 6 NCVF V2 Tests NCVF V1 Concept Tests HRRR Time-Lag Trials GFS LAMP PDF DevRUC > RR Time-Lag Trials SREF – Trials If Operational MOS > Op’l NWP > FY10 Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > FY10 – Trials and internal evaluations

7. 7 NCVF V2 Tests NCVF V1 D3 in Qtr 4 FY11 HRRR Time-Lag Trials GFS LAMP PDF FY11 – V1 Freeze for D3 Evaluation & Decision V2 Further Component Development DevRUC > RR Time-Lag Trials SREF – Trials If Operational MOS > Op’l NWP > Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > NCV Ruleset 1-5 hr Trials Obs-Based Site Fcst > Consolidated Product > ? CoSPA Trials Freeze

8. 8 NCVF V2 Tests NCVF V1 Experimental FY12 GFS LAMP PDF FY12 – V1 runs as Experimental Product V2 Explore HRRR, Ruleset & CoSPA Rapid Refresh Time-Lag Ensemble SREF Operational MOS > Op’l NWP > Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRR Time-Lag Trials Consolidated Product > Obs-Based Site Fcst > NCV Ruleset 1-5 hr Trials CoSPA Trials C&V SKILL CONSOLIDATED

9. 9 NCVF V2 Tests NCVF V1 D4 in Qtr 4 FY13 GFS LAMP PDF Rapid Refresh Time-Lag Ensemble SREF Operational MOS > Op’l NWP > Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRR Time-Lag Ensemble Consolidated Product > Obs-Based Site Fcst > NCV Ruleset 1-5 hr Trials CoSPA Trials C&V SKILL CONSOLIDATED FY13 Qtr 4 – NCVF V1 Reaches D4 Decision HRRR Time-Lag Ensemble ? Freeze

10. 10 Comments? Next Topic – Storm Forecasting

11. 11 Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Sponsor & Funding: FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) Goal: Consolidation of a plethora of different convective & winter weather forecast products into a single prediction system for aviation that builds upon best available techniques & algorithms Collaborative effort between MIT/LL (lead), NCAR/RAL, & NOAA/GSD Major Focus Areas: Blending of extrapolation & NWP forecasts Numerical modeling & data assimilation Forecast uncertainty User interaction Monitoring past 6 hours (CONUS) Forecasting 0-2 hours (CONUS) Forecasting 2-6 hours (HRRR, red box)

12. 12 Strategy: Multiple Forecast Methods 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Little Perfect Forecast Skill warm start Numerical Models cold start NWP – NOAA/ESRL Extrapolation Extrapolation – MIT/LL Blending - NCAR Blending Forecast Lead Time (hours) Extrapolation (full CONUS) Blend of Extrapolation & HRRR (HRRR domain)

13. 13 Time Series View 25 Feb 09 Radar Obs of VIL – Vertically integrated liquid water equivalent. Frames 1-3 -2h to present Frames 4-5 1h extrap fcsts Frames 6-9 1h blended fcsts

14. 14 Time Series View 25 Feb 09 Radar Obs of VIL – Vertically integrated liquid water equivalent. Frames 1-3 -2h to present Frames 4-5 1h extrap fcsts Frames 6-9 1h blended fcsts Other Capabilities - Overlay Radar Validation - Highlight 15 min growth/decay trends - Echo tops - Lightning - Satellite imagery - Archive mode

15. 15 FY08 Special 15 min output freq 3 hour latency Did not have dedicated resources Small domain hindered simulation particularly S&W NWP Support for CoSPA High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Current RUC-13 CONUS domain HRRR HRRR FY09 FY09 Dedicated resources Improved reliability 15 min echo tops Expanded domain should improve performance and eliminate edge effects.

16. 16 Demonstration Plans 2009 For Summer 2009 - Add blended forecasts of Echo Tops - Extend VIL and Echo Tops to 8 hrs (across HRRR domain) - Feed to FAA Operations (Command Center) for evaluation. - Updates every 15 mins - Coverage: 0-2 Hour CONUS 2-8 Hour HRRR Domain Contacts - Dr. Matthias Steiner (NCAR) msteiner@ucar.edu - Dr. Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL) wolfson@ll.mit.edu - Dr. Stan Benjamin (NOAA/ESRL) stan.benjamin@noaa.gov

17. 17 Have a good lunch, folks.