October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public.

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Presentation transcript:

October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University

Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >

L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Sep 2010 RECESSION > > >

MFG NON-MFG ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 454

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2007 – December 2009 (000s) Total - 8,363,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2009 – September 2010 (000s)Total 613,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.6 % GI Fcst

The Washington Area Economy

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Sep 09 – Sep 10 (000s) Washington + 56,100 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Sep 2009 – Sep 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 56,100 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Dec 2007 – Dec 2009 Northern Virginia (000s) Total - 30,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Sep 2009 – Sep 2010 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 15,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

% Unemployment Rate Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted) U.S. MSA NVA

15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate August 2010 % US 9.5 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.2

Housing Market Trends

Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September Month Moving Average

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Sep = + 2.1%

Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year LDN PG FFX ARL DCMONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month

Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month

Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

% Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP Washington U.S.

Policy-cra.gmu.edu