Making Sense of the Jewish VoteMaking Sense of the Jewish Vote March 2012

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972 Year% of Jewish Vote DemocratRepublicanIndependent Source: Exit poll data

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote 2010 Mid-Term Election Results2010 Mid-Term Election Results % Democrat / % Republican Jewish66 / 31 Unmarried women61 / 38 Hispanics60 / 38 Voters under 30 years-old55 / 42 Catholics44 / 54 Protestants38 / 59 White Evangelicals19 / 77 Other (religion)74 / 24 None (religion)68 / 30 Source: 2010 exit polls, Democracy Corps election night poll, J Street election night poll 2

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Impact of the Jewish VoteImpact of the Jewish Vote Jewish Population % 2008 Vote Results (Obama/McCain) New Jersey7 57 / 42 Florida4 51 / 48 Pennsylvania4 55 / 44 New York3 63 / 36 Nevada3 55 / 43 Ohio2 52 / 47 3 Source: 2008 exit polls

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Impact of the Jewish Vote: Florida Case Study Florida Election Results Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters) Total Vote Results Obama McCain How Jewish Vote Could Change Florida Result Non-Jewish Voters (96% of FL voters) Jewish Voters (4% of FL voters)“Result” Obama Republican Source: 2008 exit polls show Jews were 4 percent of FL vote; there was no Jewish result reported in FL, result cited here is the national Jewish result in the 2008 exit polls = =

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Understanding Recent Data and Trends: Jewish Party Identification 5 Source: Pew Research Center

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote Head-to-Head Match-Ups: Base Constituencies Underperform Months Before Elections 2008 Presidential Election ObamaMcCain Jewish Voters Gallup May Gallup September Gallup October Exit Poll7822 Hispanic Voters Gallup June Exit Polls Source: J Street poll July 2008, Gallup poll May 2008-October 2008, Exit polls

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Shared Values Gallup Poll: Ideology by Religion January 2010 % Liberal / % Conservative Jews43 / 20 Catholics19 / 39 Protestants/other Christians16 / 46 No religion/atheist/agnostic39 / 19 Gallup Poll: American Jews Oppose War February 2007 % War a mistake / % War not a mistake All Americans52 / 44 Jews77 / 21 Catholics53 / 46 Protestants48 / 49 Mormons27 / 72 No religion66 / 33 7

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Intense Jewish Opposition toward Republicans We would like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling; zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote What Drives the Jewish Vote: Vote Priorities Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which two of these issues are the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress in November. Top 2 Issues The economy62 Health care31 The deficit and govt spending18 Social Security and Medicare16 Taxes14 Terrorism and national security13 Education12 Israel7 The environment7 Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan6 Illegal immigration6 Energy4 9 Source: J Street National Election Night Survey of American Jews November 2010

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote High and Comparable Level of Return Donors for Obama and Republicans Thinking about the 2012 Presidential election, will you make a financial contribution to… Barack Obama's campaign? (Among those who contributed to Obama’s campaign) a Republican candidate's campaign? (Among those who contributed to McCain’s campaign) 10

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