1. American Public Opinion Toward Israel Dr. Amnon Cavari IDC Herzliya

2. American Special Relationship with Israel Mutual Strategic Interest Dominant Jewish population (politically and economically) Strong Israeli Lobby Shared values and beliefs – democracy, Judeo-Christian values Guilt (Holocaust) Gilboa (1987) Special relationship would be untenable were it not for highly favorable American public opinion Strong public support Support transcends conventional social and political cleavages

3. American are Uniquely Favorable of Israel (Cavari 2012)

4. Israel an Ally

5. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II FY2000: Wye. FY2003: Iraq In 2012: Israel’s Defense Budget was about $15 Billion. More than 20% comes from the US

6. … And Americans have been supportive of military aid for Israel

8. Understanding Support and Change Three major points: 1.Party polarization 2.Polarization lead by elite polarization 3.Cohort change (with Shlomo Egoz)

10. Modeling the Relative Effect of Partisanship (Cavari 2013) Dependent variable: – Sympathies with Israel (binary; 1 Israel, 0 otherwise, DK dropped) Independent variables: – Party (Republican, Democrat) – Religion (Protestants, Catholics) – Education (4 categorical groups) – Age (4 categorical groups) – Gender (male) – Race (white) – Controlling for time

13. Polarization initiated by Republican Support

14. Three periods: Cold War, Post Cold War, Post 9/11

15. Elite Driven Process

17. 101 89’ 102 91’ 103 93’ 104 95’ 105 97’ 106 99’ 107 01’ 108 03’ 109 05’ 110 07’ 111 09’ Polarization in Congress? (Cavari & Nyer)

18. 101 89’ 102 91’ 103 93’ 104 95’ 105 97’ 106 99’ 107 01’ 108 03’ 109 05’ 110 07’ 111 09’ Polarization in Congress? Oldmixon, Rosenson and Wald (2005) Trice 1977 Fereurergeson 1979

19. Data Examine all Congressional resolutions referring to Israel Criteria for inclusion 1.Resolutions specifically referring to the state of Israel 2.Israel is a dominant issue in the resolution. 3.Expressed support—declaratory, monetary or military— for Israel or condemned its foes

20. Israel Related Resolutions

21. 101 89’ 102 91’ 103 93’ 104 95’ 105 97’ 106 99’ 107 01’ 108 03’ 109 05’ 110 07’ 111 09’ Focus on 109 th Congress

22. Dependent Variable: Israel Score 1.Level of Support (Oldmixon et. al) No, No Vote, Present, Yes = 0 Cosponsor & Sponsor = 1 2.Intensity Measure No = -1 No Vote & Present = 0 Yes = 1 Cosponsor & Sponsor = 2

23. Level of Support

24. Intensity Measure

25. Determinants of Support for Israel PersonalDistrict Israel Score

26. Independent Variables Personal Level Religion – Jewish, Catholic, and Evangelical or Christian fundamentalist Partisanship Ideology – DW Nominate scores (Poole and Rosenthal) Race

27. Independent Variables District Level Religion Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA), 2000 Census Race Percentage of Black population in district based on 2000 Census Partisanship Measured as percent vote given to Republican presidential candidate in 2004 presidential election

28. Determinants of Support, 109 th Congress VariablesLevel of SupportIntensity Measure Jewish++ Evangelical++ Catholic+ Republican+ Black- Ideology++ % Evangelical- % Jewish++ % Catholic- % Republican

29. Is support for Israel affected by Events, Life Cycle Attitudes or Cohort Change? (with Shlomo Egoz) Support for Israel is influenced by systematic secular transformations of public support which are based on the experiences each person is exposed to while she is establishing her long-term views of Israel and the Arab- Israeli conflict

30. Cohort Analysis Birth cohort – An aggregate of the individuals born in a certain years- span, 17-25 (Evan 1959; Ryder 1965) – Share similar events and environmental effects that shape how they view the world. Europeans coming of age during WWI (Fussell 1975) Algerians, who came of age during Boumedienne's regime between 1965 and 1978 (Tessler, Konold & Reiff 2004) Cohort analysis used for assessment of age, cohort and period effects.

31. Cohort Analysis: three hypothetical patterns Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 1969 1979 1989 1998 2009

32. Cohort Analysis: Age Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 1969 1979 1989 1998 2009

33. Cohort Analysis: Period Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 1969 1979 1989 1998 2009

34. Cohort Analysis: Cohort Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 1969 1979 1989 1998 2009

35. Data Survey data from 1967 to 2009 (45 surveys) “In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with Israel or more with Arab nations / Palestinians?” (ABC, CBS, Gallup, LA-Times, NY-Times, Pew, Roper) – Total of 69,771 respondents 91% response rate

36. Sympathies for Israel and Arab Nations / Palestinians by Age and Year of Survey (note: Percentage difference, Israel – Arab Nations/ Palestinians) Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 44.935.131.939.646.145.71969 16.916.319.132.624.933.0 1979 31.838.541.839.739.234.31989 65.851.669.152.247.241.21998 44.346.840.336.235.330.3 2009

37. Sympathies for Israel and Arab Nations / Palestinians by Age and Year of Survey (note: Percentage difference, Israel – Arab Nations/ Palestinians) Age group +6656-6546-5536-4526-35 25- Year of Survey 44.935.131.939.646.145.71969 16.916.319.132.624.933.0 1979 31.838.541.839.739.234.31989 65.851.669.152.247.241.21998 44.346.840.336.235.330.3 2009

38. Hypothesis We expect that two perspectives of Israel have affected people’s attitudes toward the country:  Strategic Partnership 1960-1990; 2001+  Underdog Image1945-1982

39. Birth cohorts and their environmental experiences at maturation Underdog image (1945-1982) Strategic Partnership (1960-1990; 2001+) Years of Political Maturation (age 17-25) Year of birth Cohort --1917-19341900-19091 --1927-19441910-19192 +/--1937-19541920-19293 ++/-1947-19641930-19394 ++1957-19741940-19495 ++1967-19841950-19596 - + / - 1977-19941960-19697 -+/-1987-20041970-19798

40. Cohort groups and their environmental experiences at maturation Underdog image (1945-1982) Strategic Partnership (1960-1990; 2001+) Years of Political Maturation (age 17-25) Year of birth Cohort --1917-19341900-19091 --1927-19441910-19192 +/--1937-19541920-19293 ++/-1947-19641930-19394 ++1957-19741940-19495 ++1967-19841950-19596 - + / - 1977-19941960-19697 -+/-1987-20041970-19798

41. Cohort groups and their environmental experiences at maturation Underdog image (1945-1982) Strategic Partnership (1960-1990; 2001+) Years of Political Maturation (age 17-25) Year of birth Cohort --1917-19341900-19091 --1927-19441910-19192 +/--1937-19541920-19293 ++/-1947-19641930-19394 ++1957-19741940-19495 ++1967-19841950-19596 - + / - 1977-19941960-19697 -+/-1987-20041970-19798

44. Estimating the Cohort Effect Dependent Variable – Sympathies with Israel (1 – Israel; 0 - Arab Nations/Palestinians, DK) Independent Variable – Cohort indicators (cohorts 1-8. Two models: 1-6, 3-8. 3 is reference) – Demographic variables: religion, education, party identification, gender, race – Controlling for survey differences

45. The effect of cohorts on Israel Sympathies 1967-19901980-2009 CoefficientOdds RatioCoefficientOdds Ratio Cohort 1: 1900-19090.0712 (0.0881) Cohort 2: 1910-1919-0.115 ^.89 (0.0689) Cohort 4: 1930-19390.331 *** 1.390.176 * 1.19 (0.0687)(0.0757) Cohort 5: 1940-19490.465 *** 1.590.323 *** 1.38 (0.0655)(0.0709) Cohort 6: 1950-19590.267 *** 1.310.176 ** 1.19 (0.0636)(0.0672) Cohort 7: 1960-19690.0726 (0.0715) Cohort 8: 1970-19790.0817 (0.0915)

46. The effect of cohorts on Israel Sympathies 1967-19901980-2009 CoefficientOdds RatioCoefficientOdds Ratio Cohort 1: 1900-19090.0712 (0.0881) Cohort 2: 1910-1919-0.115 ^.89 (0.0689) Cohort 4: 1930-19390.331 *** 1.390.176 * 1.19 (0.0687)(0.0757) Cohort 5: 1940-19490.465 *** 1.590.323 *** 1.38 (0.0655)(0.0709) Cohort 6: 1950-19590.267 *** 1.310.176 ** 1.19 (0.0636)(0.0672) Cohort 7: 1960-19690.0726 (0.0715) Cohort 8: 1970-19790.0817 (0.0915)

47. Summary American attitudes toward Israel have polarized in the last decade – Mostly due to change in views of Republicans – Lead by elite change Attitudes toward Israel are cohort-based – As older cohorts are exiting the electorate, support for Israel will drop