SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece The starting point The SAFER plan Achievements Future tasks What next? The agenda

Seconds before the earthquake hits! Early Warning Aussprache: shear shear = thank you Seconds before the earthquake hits!

The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component! Process Understanding Scientists Hazard Assessment Scientists Risk Assessment Scientists, Engineers Safe Building Engineers Early Warning Decision Makers, Local Author. Various Groups Knowledge Transfer Rapid Earthquake Information Scientists, Engineers Rapid Impact Assessment Scientists, Engineers

SAFER Where did we start? Seismic Early Warning In seismic early warning Europe was far behind the US, Japan, Taiwan and Mexico! Bucharest Istanbul Only Istanbul and Bucharest had started to develop EW-capabilities for their cities! In particular, the shake map technology had not been implemented in Europe!

What Did We Have in Mind? Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for Europe Implement and test new methods in European test areas and -cities Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece

Regional Early Warning Seismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER) a. d. b. However: The problem of large magnitudes (from the first seconds)! Achievements: A New Concept for Regional Early Warning c. e. a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA (at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.

CNRS/SAFER- Achievements: Rapid Source Parameters Within Minutes Earthquake origin time Earthquake detection and localisation "Early P-wave magnitude" A few seconds Early warning Earthquake detection and localisation „Early P-wave magnitude“ Moment magnitude Mw 2 minutes Rapid source parameters Step 1 Focal mechanism 15 minutes Step 2 40 minutes Slip distribution Step 3 Global CMT solutions: > 1 hour TIME

More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008). Achievements (GFZ): Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me The case of the great Sumatra earthquake The red star represent the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake location, the black triangles the broadband stations used to compute Me(GFZ), and the blue circles represent the S-wave arrival times. On the right the number of stations NS used to compute Me(GFZ) at different times after OT is also shown. Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a stable Me determination. More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008). D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang

Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response “Decentralized” versus “centralized” systems “People centered“ versus „one voice“ A new technology for seismic early warning! Basic Features self-organizing! decentralized! low-cost! dense! Client station

Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR): More rapid and more precise Actual (Magnitude 6.3) after D. Wald, USGS 6/4/09 7/4/09 8/4/09 9/4/09 10/4/09 11/4/09 BBC dpa 300 250 200 150 100 50 Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009 More rapid and more precise impact assessment is needed! First 12 hours: Death Toll < 50!

Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity Rapid Impact Assessment Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity Can be Overlayed on Infrastructure! The shake-map-technology has now been implemented through SAFER in many places in Europe! and real-time damage assessment is feasible, but needs more testing (GEM?) Ground Shaking Intensity Shake-Maps within a few minutes! (The Northridge Scenario)

Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting Combining Non-Stationary Statistics with Physics of Earthquakes Achievements (GFZ/ETH): New Application of Time-Dependent Hazard Assessment: Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting 12

Achievements (NGI): Early Warning for Earthquake Induced Landslides 13

Major Contributions to International Meetings Achievements: Visibility Dissemination Public Relation Major Contributions to International Meetings American Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007 European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008 European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008 European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2009 2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009

Achievements: Publications International Journals: More than 30 Presentations: More than 100 Book on Early Warning (Springer) Second Book (Springer) in Preparation Special Volume in Geophys. Research Letters Special Issue of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (SDEE, in Preparation))

Further Achievements Contracting many young scientists Forming a European Science Community in the field of Seismic Early Warning Contributing to the networking between large European projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,…..

SAFER Final Deadlines and Proposed Schedule FINAL DEADLINES SAFER FINAL MEETING JUNE 3th-5th END OF THE PROJECT JUNE 14th DEADLINE FOR SUBMITING THE FINAL ACTIVITY REPORT AND FINANCIAL REPORT (INCLUDING AUDIT CERTIFICATES) JULY 30th PROPOSED SCHEDULE REPORTS FROM WP LEADERS AND TEST SITE LEADERS JUNE 15th FINANCIAL REPORTS AND AUDIT CERTIFICATES JULY 15th SUBMISSION OF THE FINAL REPORT

SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision Partner D Total Delivered Missing Percentage GFZ 18 10 8 55,56% AMRA 13 3 76,92% UNIKARL* 7 100,00% KOERI 4 1 25,00% UBER 6 50,00% INGV 5 83,33% NOA 57,14% NKUA 9 44,44% CNRS** 0,00% EMSC 2 ETHZ NIEP NORSAR 85,71% NGI IMOR 40,00% WAPMER SELEX 66,67% NRIAG KNMI   CEDIM Berkeley TOTAL 116 75 41 64,66% SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision * del 2.17 and del.4.18 are identical ** CNRS has delivered its contribution to del.2,5 but the deliverable has not been completed yet