1. WORKPACKAGE-2 “REAL-TIME ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS” SAFER PROJECT Coordinator: Aldo Zollo, Università di Napoli Federico II - AMRA scarl

2. IDPartnerCountry 1GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ)Germany 2AMRA Scarl (AMRA)Italy 3Universität Karlsruhe (TH) (UNIKARL)Germany 4Bogazici Universitesi (KOERI)Turkey 6Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)Italy 8National & Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA)Greece 9Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DR20 (CNRS - DR20)France 10Centre Sismologique Euro-Mediterranéen (CSEM/EMSC)France 11Eidgenoessische TechnischeHochschule Zuerich (ETHZ)Switzerland 12Insitutul National De Cercetare-Dezvoltare Pentru F izica Pamantului-INCDFP Bucaresti (NIEP) Romania 13Stiftelsen Norsar (NORSAR)Norway 15Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMOR)Iceland 17University of California Berkeley (UC Berkeley)USA 18National Taiwan University (NTU)Taiwan 21National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Japan 22Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)Netherland

3. Development, optimization and testing of algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation adopting an evolutionary approach. General Objective

4. Task 2.1 “Real-time methodologies for event detection and location” Task 2.2 “Real-time methodologies for magnitude/ moment estimates” Task 2.3 “Near real-time processing of seismic arrays for earthquake rapid alert” Task 2.4 “Implementation and testing of virtual seismologist expert system” Task 2.5 “Application of developed techniques to selected European test sites” WP2 - Tasks

5. Methodologies vs time from the eqk origin time Earthquake seconds minutes hours  E-larms Virt Seism PRESTo Tnow Array Teleseismic moment magnitude Fault Mapping Rapid Spectral Analysis Earthquake location Earthquake magnitude E-larms Virt Seism PRESTo PreSeis

6. ElarmSVirttSeis Tnow (Horiuc hi) ArrayPreSeisPRESToTele-seismic Fault mapping RSP UCB KA INGV-MEDNET INGV UCB ETH INGV KA TurkeyKACNRS Iceland IMO UCB ETH IMO Romania NIEP UCB NIEP NORSAR Greece NKUA UCB NKUA NIED NKUA NORSAR CNRS Switzerland ETH UCB ETH ESMDBAMRACNRS ISNetETHAMRA VEBSN ORFEUS EMSC GFZCNRS K-Net / Kik-NetKAAMRACNRS Synth. Acceler. (KA, AMRA) KAAMRA Methods Data Providers Matrix Methods/Data/Partners

7. Eqk detection and location : Summary Approaches: Real-Time (few seconds): - Station barycenter (E-larms) - Tnow (Horiuchi) - RTLOC (Satriano et al.) - 3-station triggering (NIEP) Near-Real time (tens of secs  minutes): - Earthquake Information Distribution System (EMSC-ORFEUS) - Relative micro-eqk location for fault mapping (IMO) - Array location (NORSAR) Italy GreeceEuropeIceland Conclusions: -Accurate eqk location a few secs after the P-waves (<4 stations) - problem: events outside the network - speed depends critically on the robustness of data transmission and distribution Data sets and regions

8. Magnitude estimation: Summary Approaches: Real-Time (few seconds): - P & S initial amplitude(PRESTo, Taiwan) - P-wave dominant period (E-larms, Taiwan) - CAV (Cumulative Absolute velocity) (KARL, Koeri) Near-Real time (tens of secs  minutes): - Spectral amplitudes (GeoAzur, GFZ) Italy GreeceEuropeIceland Conclusions: -A few secs after the P-waves : ±0.7 - After about 10 sec : ± 0.5 - Problems: P-peak displacement saturates above M ~ 6.5, dominant period  large uncertainty - need of near source data: accelerograms! Data sets and regions

9. Bucharest: National seismic network Regional seismic network Strong motion Arrays Istanbul: EW + RapidResponse network Onsite, based on thresholds Strong motion + broadband EW online, RR offline Athens: Accelerometric network Regional network 2 arrays Naples: Regional network Strong-motion & Short period Cairo: Regional strong motion/sismometric networks SAFER test sites

10. DataMethod(s)Partners Italy, Naples Regional Network data (ISNet), synthetic waveforms, DISS (fault) catalogue E-larms, PRESTo, RSP AMRA, INGV, UC Berkeley, CNRS Romania, Bucharest All available data recorded since 1996. Bukovina Array data Magnitude P wave vertical acceleration. Array monitoring of Romania seismicity NIEP, NORSAR, Turkey, Istanbul Synthetic set of eqk scenario events PreSeis -NeuralNetwork, Optimization of seismic network for EEW, KOERI, UNIKARL Greece, Athens Strong and week motion network 2 arrays Tnow, on-site approach,Array based processing approach NKUA, NORSAR, NIED Egypt, Cairo Microtremor data collected at a dense network. Borehole data. Site amplification effects. Shake-map implementation NRIAG, GFZ WP2 research activities in SAFER test sites

11. Presentations PRESTo: the PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem in southern Italy (15 min) Satriano C., Zollo A., Iannaccone G., Elia L., Martino C., Lancieri M. and Festa G. (AMRA, Naples) Implementing the Virtual Seismologist Expert System (15 min) G. Cua, M.Fischer, T. Heaton, and S.Wiemer (ETH, Switzerland)  Moved to the afternoon Rapid magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system and the April 25, 2009 Mw= 5.3 event (15min) A.Marmureanu,C.Ionescu,Gh.Marmureanu (NIEP, Romania) Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me (10 min) D. Di Giacomo1, S. Parolai1, H. Grosser (GFZ, Germany)