2. The JRC Tsunami Model A. Annunziato Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen Support to External Security DG-INFSO Info Day – Paris 31 Jan 2006

3. Summary The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System The JRC Tsunami model Application of the model Future developments

4. European Union is a large donor for humanitarian aid Humanitarian aid 2004 Member states: € 867 million European Commission € 570m European Union 53% of official dev. Aid (ODA)

5. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System GDACS funded by ECHO, who is also supporting UN-OCHA GDACS provides –Predictable information of –Predictable quality at –Predictable time Natural Disasters –Earthquakes –Tropical Storms –Volcanoes Through –A network of computer systems and Internet technology; Computer modeling Mainly task of JRC –A network of disaster managers 24/7 duty; connected to authorities Mainly task of OCHA Media analysis Remote Sensing damage analysis Field Missions (Search & Rescue) Alert Model results time How many people?? time What is needed now??

6. Monitoring and alerting

7. High Tsunami Risk in Sumatra Orange Alert: Earthquake of magn 7.2 occ Monitoring and alerting

8. Earthquakes: is it of humanitarian concern ?  Population density model connected with magnitude of the disaster  The objective is to distinguish between large earthquake in unpopulated regions and smaller earthquake in higher populated areas. M 6.7 M 6.0 Early Warning

9. Why a Tsunami model During the event of 26 th dec. the earthquake alert tool of GDACS detected the event after 25 min and alerted ECHO and OCHA with automatic SMS messages (in addition to email messages). However no tsunami model was present at that time in the GDACS Therefore the first month after the event it was decided to develop a Tsunami wave propagation model to be integrated in the GDACS system The objective was to develop a model with the following characteristics: –fast running (less than 1 minute calculation time !) –reliable unbreakable –automatically activated 24h 7/7 on request –on any location of the world –Integrated in the GDACS

10. Tsunamis : There will be a wave ? When the wave will arrive ? In case the conditions for a Tsunami are identified the time of arrival of the wave is calculated automatically. JRC developed a fast running Tsunami model which is used to predict the time of arrival of the Tsunami wave The model is valid in all the world It is used since March 2005

11. Details about the JRC model The model is based on the propagation speed evaluated as And then integrating it in all directions to find the arrival position In order to account diffraction each point represents a new source The model is independent on the earthquake magnitude. It calculates only the propagation time

12. Calculation logic The calculation starts from the epicenter along all directions and evaluate the position after defined intervals The connection of the positions after 1h gives the wave position at that time From 1h all the points on that line becomes new sources for the wave which is then evaluated at the following hour. 1h 2h

13. Calculation of 26 th December Tsunami The simulation on the side has been obtained with the JRC Tsunami model and respects accurately the time of arrival of the wave. Calculation time 49 s.

14. Comparison of MIST calculation with the JRC Tsunami Model

15. Tsunami Papua New Guinea 1998 Tsunami occurred in 1998 with 2500 deads Caused by a 7.1 earthquake far from Aitape Village, 590 km from the capital Port Moresby The calculation has been compared with existing literature 3d calculations of this earthquake

16. Example of a Tsunami in Mediterranean 0:18 Calabrian coasts 0:20 Greece 1:06 Napoli 1:12 Roma 2:30 Genova 2:50 Marseille 3:00 Barcelona 3:30 Tunis

17. Web implementation of the Tsunami model The tsunami model has been implemented in a web procedure which allow: –Any user to perform on-line calculations from any location in the world –To be reached by Tsunami alert systems which can reach the model perform a calculation and get back a propagation image

18. Application of the JRC Tsunami Alert Tool The application of the model since March 2005 revealed: –No false alert until now –1 high probability event (Sumatra 28 march), really occurred –5 medium probability event Probabilitylowmediumhigh March11 April2 May4 June21 July31 August11 September11 October1 November1 December2 Japan, 14 nov Sumatra, 28 mar. Logic adopted for the model: -Epicenter in a location above the water: No tsunami is possible -Epicenter in a location below the water: M< 6.5: no tsunami possible 6.5<M<7: low probability tsunami 7<M< 7.5:medium probability tsunami M>7.5:: high probability of tsunami

19. An example of the application of the JRC Tsunami model 7.2 Richter earthquake off shore of Japan 14 Nov. 2005: Time of the event 21:39 GMT Time of alert: +34 minutes after the event –Low Tsunami predicted to arrive to Japan coasts 22:20 GMT, +49 min, thus 15 minutes before the arrival of the Tsunami wave (small wave in this case) Earthquake USGS 33 0 GDACS SMS+email 34 49 Wave arrival Minutes 15

20. JRC Tsunami Alert Tool The JRC Tsunami model has been requested by –University College London for integration in their GIS tool for Tsunami coastal vulnerability –The Alfred-Wegener Institute of Polar and Ocean Research (AWI) which is part of the German Consortium for the Indian Ocean Early Warning System –The 3M Future company in Germany which has a system for massive people alerting by SMSs.

21. Future developments Estimation of the wave height Identify the possible run-up heights and flooded areas Geo identify the locations and the critical infrastructures which may be involved Initiate a detailed calculation with a more detailed model just after the quick calculation

22. Conclusions JRC developed a fast running Tsunami model to serve as supporting analytical tool to early warning system The model, implemented since March 05 in the GDACS, allowed to identify all major (and minor) earthquake which could cause a Tsunami and give alerts (email+SMSs) to registered users: –28 March 05, Sumatra –14 November, Japan Improvement to the model are currently being performed to be able to give an estimate of the wave height.

23. http://www.gdacs.org

24. http://asa2.jrc.it/tsunami/model

25. GDACS partners Virtual Osocc – UN OCHA DG ECHO