Big Data Stupid Decisions The Importance Of Measuring What We Should Be Measuring Stern School of Business, New York University “A Computer.

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Presentation transcript:

Big Data Stupid Decisions The Importance Of Measuring What We Should Be Measuring Stern School of Business, New York University “A Computer Scientist in a Business School”

Shopping for a camera

Multiple merchants sell the same camera

Consumers do not always buy the cheapest

Willoughby’s enjoys a 7.5% price premium (= $140)

Price Premium Percentages, Amazon.com Transaction price compared to competition +100% -100% 0%

Customers care about reputation!

The price of Willoughby’s reputation (*) : $140 (*) vs 17 th street photo

What is reputation? Factors affecting pricing power  Number of stars  Number of past transactions  …  Text! My reputation, Iago, my reputation! -Shakespeare, Othello

How text affects reputation?

The value of text

Misspellings…

good packaging -0.56% Positive? Negative ?

Recommendation Letters: “He is a good student” “He works hard” Decision: Reject

AAA++++ seller -2.93% Positive? Negative ?

People interpret things differently, according to the context

Lesson #1 Adapt to the environment One size does not fit all!

Same idea, different focus: How reviews (text) affect product sales?

Best camera! -0.20% Positive? Negative ?

Tell me something specific, you shill!

Positive Negative ? ?

“If this is the worst that can happen…”

What product features do customers want?

Point-and-Shoot: Lenses, zoom, …

Lesson #2 Not sufficient to know what people say Measure what people DO

Reviews, Grammar, and Hotel Bookings

Bad Grammar → Bad Sales

Zappos takes action!  Examined and fixed grammar for millions of reviews on Zappos.com!  Used Amazon Mechanical Turk, paying ~$0.10 per review  Improved product sales!

But… is it ethical? “Would you correct a friend’s tweet or Facebook post? … Nitpick a colleague for using shorthand in s sent from his iPhone? … This level of social intrusion is almost unthinkable.”

Experiment: Fixed 1000 reviews  ed authors: “Do you approve of the changes?”  Gift card for replying  Result: 978 replies, not a single negative evaluation! “Thank you! I almost feel that I am ‘stoopid’ when I leave such reviews!” “Hey, the review is not updated online! When will it be fixed?”

Experiment: Fixed 1000 reviews  ed readers: “Do you approve of the changes?”  Version 1: Only new version posted  Version 2: Disclaimer (“Review has been edited…”)  Version 3: Disclaimer + mouseover to see old review  Result: For version 3, unanimously positive replies!

“Can you do the same for YouTube comments? My eyes hurt every time that I read them”

Lesson #3 Check your gut instinct at the entrance Measure and then talk!

Lessons 1.Measure in context: one size does not fit all 2.Measure what people do, not what they say 3.Measure! Thank you!