Demographic Trends Affecting Cities Aging

Outline  Trends  Implications for cities  Checklist for cities  Information resources

Trends  Aging is dominant demographic trend  Number of Minnesotans over 65 will double in next 25 years to 1.3 million  By 2020, there will be more individuals over 65 than school age  Significant service impacts

Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Trends Source: Census counts & State Demographer projection More 65+ than school age by 2020: budget priorities likely to change

Trends  All regions will see growth in population over 65  Over 65 will concentrate in central lakes region and metro corridor  Over 65 will grow fastest in corridor between St. Cloud and Rochester  In south and southwest regions, the only population growth will be among over 65

Trends  Aging today:  Better overall health, longer life expectancies  More chronic illness (e.g. diabetes)  Trend of aging in place (only 10% of older Minnesotans plan to move)  Working longer

Implications for Cities  New service needs can include:  Transit  Easy-to-read signage, more parking  Sidewalks and ramps, better lighting  Public safety; crime prevention  Different housing

Implications for Cities More empty nesters and single elderly households In the future — Will housing change? Source: Office of State Demographer

Implications for Cities Young families with children  Good Schools  Good neighborhood  Access to outdoors  Kids rooms  Closets and storage  Convenient to job Older couples or singles  Secure  Accessible  Little maintenance  Convenient to friends and relatives  Quality construction  Transit/pedestrian friendly Different stages = different housing characteristics sought

Implications for Cities Minnesota labor force growth will slow down Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Implications for Cities 2004 American Community Survey Minnesota government has fewer young workers and more old workers than the private sector

Implications for Cities  Minnesota cities’ workforce  Almost 37% of city employees are over age 50 (excluding police and firefighters).  Almost half of the cities in Minnesota have at least 25% of their employees over age 50.  In 150 cities, at least half of the employees are over age 50. Source: PERA

Implications for Cities  Choices employers have when faced with a tightening labor market  Encourage retention or hiring of non- traditional workers such as older workers  Increase per worker productivity  Export jobs  Import workers--means more residents

Implications for Cities  The sense of community is changing with changing population  Differences between cities and suburb/exurb areas increasing  Differences between metro area and rest of the state increasing  Many new residents  New cultures, languages and other characteristics

Checklist for Cities  What is age make up of current residents  What will service needs be for: over 65, over 85, mobile/less mobile residents, active/less active residents  Do we have plan to develop new services  Will finances allow new services; how will we pay  How will we keep aging citizens engaged  Have we done workforce analysis  How will we capture knowledge of retiring workers

Checklist for Cities  What changes in job structure and work rules might be needed to retain older workers  What are less labor-intensive ways to deliver services  How do ethnic groups view city employment  What training do supervisors/employees need to deal with diverse workforce  What has county done already to address aging needs

Checklist for Cities  What types and ages of people are likely to stay in or move to our community  Do we have good understanding of future age makeup  Are there steps we can take to change future age makeup  Is housing stock consistent with needs of projected population

Resources  Minnesota Board on Aging   Area Agencies on Aging   League of Minnesota Cities 