Critical Skills Shortages Related to Meteorology Marine Meteorology Mr. Rich Jeffries Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. OFCM Mini-Workshop, Apr 23, 2009

Outline Current Foundation Knowledge and Skills Future Fundamental Knowledge Shortages and Gaps Current Activities and Solutions Recommendations

Foundation Knowledge Air/Sea Interface and Boundary Layer Dynamics –Geostrophic Wind Theory –Principles of the Thermal Kenetic Energy Equation –Wind/Wave Generation –Littoral Wind/Wave/Surface Synoptic and Mesoscale Effects. Dynamics and Thermodynamics* –Processes contributing to and physical sources of atmospheric features Deterministic Modeling Principles –Parameterizations –Resolutions –Strengths and Weaknesses of Medium Range Prediction

LBFS&I -New Sensors -Gliders -UUVs Products -Performance Surface Production -New models -GI&S Decision support Master Engagement C-1 School A School Master Journeyman Apprentice MPN CIV CIV/MPN Actions: 1.Re-scope the work (where it lies, phased approach). Possible point to redefine and push work down. 2. Assess what we do along formal training venues (NPS, Universities, A-school, C-1 school, SWIFT)

Future Functional Skill Sets Identify Future Needs –Arctic Meteorology –Ensembles/Stochastic Modeling –Decision Science/Support –GI&S Product Support –Performance Surfaces – decision support calculations. Determine when it is appropriate to use deterministic predictions and/or stochastic predictions. Relate environmental impact to the decisions they support. Publish products in the format used by the customer.

Addressing the Navy Skills GAPS Funding innovative approaches –AOTSR –UUV/AUV/UAV Observations –Stochastic and Decision Science Seminars –Stochastic Product Demonstrations. –COMET Distance Learning Dynamics Modules –COMET Modules – Arctic Forecasting, Wave Series, New Ensemble Models Module –Replacing some enlisted AGs with meteorologists and moving military into decision support positions.

Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR) FNMOC (NAVO) Route Parameters Ship/Tactical Limits “ Acceptable Risk” Fuel Consumption SOE Events WEAX MOVREP Ensembles Quantify Risk NMFC Ocean Weather Parameters Navigation Data Winds/Seas/Vis High Res Currents Scheduled for TCC 29 April Ship Routing MOVREP Parser SA Tool Reachback

Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR) Future… Route Builder Ocean Weather Parameters Navigation Data Winds/Seas/Vis High Res Currents Route Parameters Ship/Tactical Limits “ Acceptable Risk” Fuel Consumption SOE Events Parameters adjustable based on meeting mission needs Maritime Ship Router Final Route Issued Initial Route Request Ensembles Quantify Risk

Actions with Academia Establishing Distance Learning Degrees Thesis Topic List Updated Educational Skills Requirements at NPS RTP funding support for Thesis Topics Primary focus of efforts –Enlisted Marine Science Bachelor’s Degrees – University of Southern Mississippi. –Mississippi State University – Online Degree in Meteorology –Naval Postgraduate School – Ensembles and Decision Support –Naval Research Laboratory/Fleet Numerical – Ensembles and AOTSR –UW APL – Gliders and Arctic Prediction –COMET – Dynamics and Training Modules

Recommendations Agencies must recognize the importance of shifting numerical prediction into the Arctic as climate change continues and the Arctic becomes navigatible during part of the year. Meteorological academia and Federal agencies must increase emphasis toward development of stochastic modeling and forecasting skills. Embrace advanced understanding of decision science as a delivery process for Marine Meteorology Results.

Questions?