1. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D. Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change October 15, 2009 This Presentation is Unclassified Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs Consortium for Ocean Leadership

2. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Overview Task Force Climate Change Navy Arctic Roadmap What We Know Adapting to Climate Change Science & Technology Needs Way Ahead

3. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Task Force Climate Change Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) –To identify Navy action regarding climate change –Near-term focus: Arctic Charter –Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action –Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach Service, interagency, & scientific community support –Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab –NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security –National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI), Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change

4. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Task Force Climate Change Focus Areas U.S. Navy Photo Readiness & Capability Assessment & Prediction Policy, Strategy, Plans Investments Operations & TrainingComms & Outreach 5 Focus Areas TFCC Objectives Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas

5. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Navy Arctic Roadmap Key Themes U.S. Navy Photo Improved understanding Regarding the current & predicted environment Cooperative partnerships With interagency and international stakeholders Increased experience Through exercises & operations UNCLOS advocacy Providing a governance framework that supports security & stability Informed investments Providing the right capability at the right time & cost Navy POM Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic

6. N84 UNCLASSIFIED What We Know Warming Earth is causing: –Sea level rise –Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns, hydrological & ecological systems –Decreasing snow & ice extent Climate change projections are uncertain & variable –Global temperature & precipitation patterns well-modeled to 100 yrs –Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, & ocean acidity NOT well-modeled Climate change will impact the Navy –Infrastructure, missions, operating areas IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure & installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years

7. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Adapting to Climate Change Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies

8. N84 UNCLASSIFIED Science & Technology Needs Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs Improve Model Physics Increase Model Resolution –Adaptive, higher-density observation net –Regional scale spatial resolution –Decadal scale temporal resolution Address Uncertainties –Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels –Provide probability distribution functions in output –Represent variability across multiple temporal & spatial scales –Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise, water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms –Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise –Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems –Feedback processes & geo-engineering –Factors causing abrupt climate change

9. N84 UNCLASSIFIED National Climate Consortium Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs Identified by the National Academy of Science and the Office of Science & Technology Policy Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped Multiple agencies working on the same problem Observation systems, climate models, & decision support A way ahead Synchronize efforts across the US agencies Leverage prior investments of each Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy