1. Decision Support System Development: Engaging End Users Bill Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)

2. Outline NCAR/RAL background Why is this topic important?
Defining a Decision Support System (DSS)
Assessing user needs
Trends and opportunities
DSS example – Road Weather

3. Research Applications Laboratory
RAL
About 200 people, approximately half are atmospheric scientists, and half are engineers
Mission
Develop Solutions: Work closely with customers to develop applications designed to solve specific problems
Technology Transfer: Transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments

4. Decision Support Systems
What is a decision support system?
An automated tool that makes decisions?
A semi-automated tool?
A handbook of recommended practices?
Local newspaper or news program?
Student assistant?
Answer: All the above!

5. Why is this topic important?
The importance of connecting science to society has risen in the last decade.
Most new research funding is targeted or directed to support a societal need.
Researchers have traditionally not been well connected to end users making it difficult for society to take advantage of results.
Learning how to engage end users is critical for advancing science and technology.

6. Decision Support Systems
Before one can consider developing or implementing a DSS, some important questions need to be asked.

7. Decision Support Systems
First Question:
1) What problem(s) are you trying to solve?
This must be asked several different ways before a potential solution may emerge.

8. Decision Support Systems
2) What is the culture of your organization?
- Would a DSS be seen as threatening?
- Does automation pose problems?
- Are general support tools viewed positively?
3) What actual decisions could be supported?
4) What job categories would benefit most?

9. Decision Support Systems
5) What technical capabilities exist?
- Is there an in-house framework for a DSS?
> Network system (external & internal)
> Desktop computers
> Remote communications
> Data base of pertinent data
Remote Systems

10. Decision Support Systems
6) What are the potential benefits?
- Safety
- Productivity
7) Who will champion the technology?
- Management vs. staff
- Technology push or pull?

11. Decision Support Systems
Application Categories:
Strategic Planning (condition prediction)
Tactical Planning (alert functions)
Operations Management (productivity)
Incident Management (notification function)
Risk Management
Evaluation of “What if?” scenarios
Training Tool (off line assessments)

12. DSS Development Issues
There are no off-the-shelf plug and play weather and climate capabilities that can fully address the needs of all user communities. No “one-size-fits-all” solutions.
A “bottoms-up” rather than a “tops-down” approach should be used for DSS system development.
Stakeholders need to determine the level of sophistication that is required for their specific DSS application.

13. NCAR/RAL Development Process

14. Technical Risks & Challenges For Weather Related DSSs

15. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts
The weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized.
The weather research community has not traditionally been focused on the individual needs of specific user communities.

16. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts
What is usually required?
- High resolution information
(misoscale = 40 m to 4 km)
- Rapid updates
(minutes to hours)
Both short term and long lead time (seasonal) forecasts
Diverse set of input data

17. Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts
Users are now seeking:
- Probability metrics (or confidence)
for key meteorological parameters
Example:
“What is the probability of the high temperature
Reaching 95F between 4 and 6 pm tomorrow?”

18. Winter Road Maintenance DSS

19. MDSS User Needs Acquisition Process
Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support System Requirements (STWDSR)
Identified Stakeholder Group
Discussed overall goals and objectives with stakeholders
Created focus group from stakeholder group
Assessed current practice
Developed concept of operations
Developed prototype design
Developed prototype – first step that code was written!
Demonstrated prototype
Iterated
Kept stakeholders in the loop throughout process

20. Current Capabilities and Practice
The highway maintenance managers currently use
newspapers, Weather Channel, USA Today, NWS, and private meteorologists to make decisions.
Road weather information systems are not integrated with road management systems. The winter road maintenance decision process is generally reactive in nature.

21. Expressed Stakeholder Needs
On a plow route by plow route basis, users want:
Treatment Type (chemical, plow, sand, etc.)
Treatment Amount (lbs per lane mile, etc.)
Treatment Location (plow routes)
Treatment Timing (start/end)

22. 2000-2005 State DOT MDSS Stakeholders
35 State Participants
Includes the District of Columbia

23. MDSS Products Weather parameters Air temperature Relative humidity
Wind speed and direction
Precipitation type, rate, accumulation
Road Parameters
Road temperature
Bridge temperature
Bridge frost potential
Blowing snow potential
Road contamination & chemical concentration
Treatment Recommendations
Treatment type
Treatment amount
Treatment location

24. MDSS Display Application
State view for general awareness and weather & road alerts
Route view for viewing specific routes covered by system
Treatment selector for inputting selected treatments and doing “what ifs”
Table view of weather and road condition prediction data
Time series of weather and road condition predictions
MDSS Display Application

25. Field Demonstrations 2003 - 2005
Iowa
DOT
Verify results and be honest with stakeholders
Don’t come across as a typical salesperson!

26. Summary There are numerous challenges associated with
the DSS development; however, scientific
and engineering technologies are coming to fruition
that, are likely to produce significant benefits new user communities.
Engaging the end users early and often results in better products and user acceptance!