Climate Change: Production Variability and Diversity Alok K. Sikka Deputy Director General (NRM) Indian Council of Agricultural Research New Delhi

Climate Change and Indian Agriculture- Challenges Indian agriculture has to feed 17.5% of the global population with only 2.4% of land and 4% of water resources at its disposal. Large country with diverse climate Sixty percent of net sown area rainfed High monsoon dependency Increase in frequency of extreme weather events Diverse seasons, crops and farming systems Close link - climate and water resources Small holdings, poor coping mechanisms and low penetration of risk management products 2 2

Trends in temperature, atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2014) Atmospheric CO2 concentration has crossed 400 ppm. Methane concentration increased from 800 to 1800 ppb. Nitrous oxide concentration increased from 270 to 320 ppb. Heat stress on agriculture would intensify in coming years. Climatic variability will also increase causing more uncertainties with agricultural production.

Emission of greenhouse gases from various sub-sectors of agriculture in India in 2010 Currently N2O from soil and fertilizer is the 2nd largest source

Climate at district level (Post 1970) Climate at district level (Pre 1970) Moist sub-humid districts in eastern region turned dry sub-humid

Delay in onset of monsoon projected in Western and peninsular region Increase in Total rainfall in western India hints at possibility of extreme events

Increase in Max and Min Temperatures across India

Probability of increase in heat wave

Area prone to floods (%GA) Drought Incidence Area prone to floods (%GA) Cyclone-proneness Cyclone proneness: Composite index based on five attributes: No. of cyclones crossing the district, no. of severe cyclones crossing the district, probable maximum precipitation for a day, probable maximum winds in knot, probable maximum storm surge

Drought in 2009-10 and its impact on Foodgrains production 2009 -Third worst monsoon since 1901 (1918-25%, 1972- 24%) Source of data: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation

Extreme events becoming matter of concern Year SWM Rainfall Departure (%) 2001 -15 2002 -19 2003 +2 2004 -13 2005 -1 2006 2007 +5 2008 -2 2009 -23 2010 2011 +1 2012 -8 2013 +6 2014 -12 2002 drought 20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh Extreme cold winter in the year 2002-03 Drought like situation in India in July 2004 Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and flood in 2005 Floods in 2005 Cold wave 2005 - 06 Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006 Abnormal temperatures during 3rd week of Jan to 1st week of Feb 2007 All India Severe drought 2009 2010 – One of warmest years 2011 – Failure of September rains in AP 2012 – Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat & Karnataka. Cyclone, AP floods 2013- Uttarakhand Flood, Phalin cyclone, and hailstorms 2014- J & K Flood, cyclone ‘Hudhud’ 11 11

Hail frequency in India (1978-2011) Hail Storms Impact on crops

Vulnerability Atlas District level vulnerability assessment completed More vulnerable districts identified

Impacts of climate change in 2020 scenario on various crops Rice Wheat Mustard Irrigated rice, wheat and mustard productions may be reduced by 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively. Adaptation strategies can compensate the reductions. Rice

Impacts of climate change in 2020, 2050, 2080 scenario on various crops Climate Change Impact Rice Projected reduction in rice productivity (2020 to 2080): 4-10% in irrigated rice & 2.5 to 6% in rainfed rice Pollen sterility and poor germination of pollen due to high temperatures, adverse effect on basmati rice Wheat Projected reduction in wheat yield (Global - MIROC3.2.HI, Regional - PRECIS): 6-23% by 2050; 15-25% by 2080 High thermal stress during post flowering period reduced wheat yield by 18% Mustard 60% reduction (projected) Potato 12% reduction (projected) Apple 1°C increase in the Himalayan region is adversely affecting apple yield Sorghum 2-14% reduction in Kharif sorghum yield by 2020 Worsening impact by 2050 and 2080 Maize 18% reduction at regional level in irrigated kharif maize by 2050 due to warming which can be partly off-set by increased rain Milk Annual loss (production) of 1.8 mt by 2020 based on ambient THI with maximum impact in U P, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and West Bengal

Sensitivity of rice yields to change in minimum temperatures Rising trends in minimum temperature -negative impact on rice yields. About 268 districts exhibited a negative impact of rising temperature and 49 of them showed statistical significance. Negative impacts mostly in the on the eastern parts, Madhya Pradesh and Indo-Gangetic Plains. Correlation between district level minimum temperature rice yields

THI map(s) to Identify Different Strategic Locations for assessing Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production April Baseline April 2030

Impact of Thermal Stress Both increase in T max (> 4oC above normal) during summer and decline in T min (>3oC than normal) during winter, negatively impact milk production The northern India is likely to experience more negative impact of climate change on milk production The decline in milk production will be higher in crossbred (0.63%) than buffalo (0.5%) and indigenous cattle (0.4%) Frequency and incidence of mastitis, FMD, tick born diseases affecting crossbred cows and other high producing animals may increase due to increase number of stressful days Rise of 1-2˚C will marginally affect Milk production but rise of more than 2˚C will increase incidence of silent estrus, short estrus and decline in reproduction efficiency

Recent Government Initiatives on Climate Change in Agriculture Timeline Initiative Objective 2004 ICAR - Network Project on Climate Change To quantify sensitivities of food production systems to climate change scenarios Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agro-ecosystems Policy support for international negotiations on global climate change 2010 (approval) PM’s Council - National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) Evolve National Policy on climate change Initiate eight National Missions 2013 MoA – National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) Enhance agricultural productivity and sustainability through adaptation measures on 10 key dimensions of Indian agriculture Judicious utilization of resources of commons via community based approach

National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) Objective To enhance resilience of Indian agriculture (including crops, livestock and fisheries) to climatic variability and climate change To demonstrate site specific technology packages on farmers’ fields to cope with current climatic variability To enhance the capacity of scientists and other stakeholders in climate resilient agricultural research and awareness of impacts Programme Area Rainfed crop production systems Soil, water and nutrient management Irrigated crop production systems Monitoring of GHGs Horticultural production systems Energy efficiency in agriculture Improved machinery for adaptation and mitigation Livestock and Dairy sector Fisheries including Aquaculture All aspects covering the production systems in NE NICRA Project Components Strategic Research Technology Demonstrations Capacity Building Sponsored / Competitive research grants

Major Achievements Extensive field phenotyping of germplasm of target crops (rice, wheat, maize, pigeonpea, tomato) to multiple abiotic stresses District level vulnerability mapping – Atlas prepared Technology development for climate resilient horticulture Role of NRM in adaptation – Biochar, CA, water foot prints and emission reduction through efficient energy management, quantification of carbon sequestration by agroforestry Unique traits for thermal tolerance in livestock mapped, heat care mixture for poultry ready for commercialization Relationship established between increase in SST and catch and spawning in major marine fish species. Three years of on-farm technology demonstrations came up with several models for upscaling under NMSA

Coping with current climate variability: Demonstrating climate resilient technologies on farmers fields in vulnerable districts

Technology Demonstration Modules (4 modules) Implemented through KVKs In-situ Ex-situ RWHS TDC NICRA NRM Livestock & Fisheries Institutional Interventions Crop Prod. Tolerant Breeds Tolerant cultivars Shelter Mngmt Contingency interventions Health Planting time Feed/ Fodder Crop diversification CHC Seed/ Fodder bank

In-situ Rain Water Harvesting Structures Demonstrated on 67 ha involving 229 farmers Value of convergence Rs 800000 Convergence with MGNREGA Umarani village, Nandurbar

Staggered Community nursery technique Coping with delayed onset of monsoon Staggered Community nursery technique To avoid transplanting of over-aged seedlings (medium to long duration varieties in lowlands) Nursery sowings on 15th June, 28th June and 12th July Technique adopted by the State Dept. of Agriculture, Bihar in 2013 (Rs 16500 /acre nursery)

Direct Seeded Rice: Coping with monsoon delay Punjab, UP, Bihar & Jharkhand Technology Input cost (Rs/ha) Av. Yield (q/ha) BC Ratio Direct Seeding Seed @ 30 kg/ha 14100/- 45.0 2.19 Conventional method (60-80 kg/ha) 18900/- 47.0 1.85 Timely sowing Water saving (25%) Diesel saving for pumping (27%) Labor saving (35-40 mandays) Early maturity (7-10 days) for timely rabi cropping Low methane emissions / less GWP (33% reduction compared to Tp) Scope for upscaling North-west IGP, Biahr, Jharkhand, Odisha, AP, Chattisgarh

Advancing Planting date to escape from terminal heat / drought – Satna, MP Crop Normal Intervention Mustard Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov 1-15 Oct. Wheat 05-20 Dec. 15-30 Nov. Chick pea 10-25 Oct. Nov,4,2011 Oct,13,2011 Dec,17,2011 Nov,19,2011

Demonstration of Tolerant Paddy varieties in Flood prone areas TDC Demonstration of Tolerant Paddy varieties in Flood prone areas Flood tolerant paddy varieties demonstrated in Assam, AP, Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat Identified performing varieties in low, medium and high inundation areas Submergence tolerance from 7-10 days Increased yield due to reduced extent of lodging Prevented loss in grain and straw yield Swarna sub-1 Tolerant paddy cultivars Yield (q/ha) % increase in yield B: C ratio Demo Local Swarna Sub-1 41.25 33.75 18.9 2.09 MTU-1061 45.28 28.1 23.1 1.84 MTU-1140 55.1 31.8 73.2 2.01 MTU-1061 MTU-1140

Change of cultivars and potassium spray helped farmers save paddy crop from floods post Neelam cyclone timm Swarna (MTU-7029) Indra (MTU-1061) 4.1 t/ha 5.6 t/ha Sirsiwada village could save Rs.45 lakhs worth paddy in one season

Conservation Agriculture and Carbon Sequestration in Rainfed Agriculture (Maize - horsegram system (2012-13) Residue retention of kharif maize and ZT improved soil profile storage capacity and C sequestration which helped grow post rainy- horsegram, in rainfed Alfisols: Otherwise monocropped region

Improved planting methods to increase rainwater use efficiency & crop productivity Soybean at Datia, MP BC ratio: 3.51 vs 2.41 Making of BBFs Drainage in furrows Crop stand in BBF Onion atTumkur Additional gross returns: Rs.1,50,000/- Cotton at Aurangabad

Short duration drought tolerant cultivars : Answer to reduced duration due to climate change Location Crop Variety Duration Varanasi Rice Pigeonpea Vandana T-21 93 176 Phulbani 160 Arjia Maize Surya 70-75 Anantapur Groundnut Vemana 105-110 Indore Soybean JS-90-41 87-98 Rewa Kalinga-3 90 Akola Cotton AKH-081 150-160 Bijapur Sunflower KBSH-1 90-95 Solapur Sorghum Mauli Hisar Pearlmillet HHB-67 60-62 Bangalore Fingermillet GPU-26 90-105 CRIDA Source: AICRPDA-CRIDA, Hyderabad 32

Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders (eg.India) 33

Crop diversification in Rice-wheat system : Short duration maize & pigeonpea South Bihar Interventions Demo Critical input No of farmer Area (ha) Yield (Q/ha) Local % increase Maize Short duration varieties Seed Var. GK3017 Var. DMH849 104 7.5 40.2 18.7 114 Economics of Demo Rs/ha Economics of Local Rs/ha Gross Cost Gross Return Net Return B:C:R 18750 56280 37530 3.00 16650 24310 7660 1.46 MAL-13

Crop diversification – Contingency measure No. of. farmers Area (ha) Av. Yield (q/ha) Gross Cost (Rs/ha) Gross Return (Rs/ha) Net Return BC Ratio Groundnut 3 5 7.7 18500 24640 6140 1.33 Castor 15 6 8.83 16250 32671 16421 2.01 Foxtail millet 12.3 7500 23000 15500 3.07 Field day on ‘foxtail cultivation’ Castor + pigeonpea (1:1) intercropping

Crop Diversification of Wheat with Maize and Bed Planting 20-25 % Saving in irrigation water Conventional Raised Bed planting Opportunity for crop diversification Suitable for mechanical weeding & reduces herbicide use Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem CRIDA 36

Agro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events (eg.India) CRIDA Leucaena + Sunhemp Neem + Cowpea Faidherbia Albida+Sorghum Guava + stylo Mango + Greengram 37

Integrated fish-duck farming Rice-fish-poultry farming Integrated Farming System modules Minimize risk from a single enterprise in the face of natural calamities and diversified enterprises Year round income to farmers in monocropped paddy growing areas and improve their livelihoods and resilience to extreme weather events. Integrated fish-duck farming Rice-fish-poultry farming

Declining apple yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling Shift in apple cultivation to higher elevations due to non fulfillment of chilling requirement and replace d with non-traditional horticulture Source: HPKVV/ICAR network

Community Seedbank: Dubri, Assam Intervention Purpose Maintenance of seed bank Quality seed of submergence tolerant and short duration late transplanted rice varieties for flood affected area Quality seed of summer rice and toria for rabi

Small Farm Mechanization through Custom Hiring Centers TDC Small Farm Mechanization through Custom Hiring Centers Facilitates timely sowing operations in narrow windows of moisture availability Precision planting, good germination and better crop stand Access to small & marginal farmers of costly machinery Crop residue recycling Water saving, in situ moisture conservation Increase in crop productivity Labor saving Multiple operations e.g. planter & rotavator Most Popular Implements in CHCs Zero till drill Drum seeder Rotavator Happy seeder Ridge & furrow planter Multi crop planter Multi crop thresher Power tiller Revenue generated: Rs. 18,00,000 Sustainability fund: 25% of revenue

VCRMC- Key institutional Intervention Village Climate Risk Management Committees constituted in all NICRA villages Bank account opened for each VCRMC Custom hiring centres for farm machinery setup in all NICRA villages Proceeds of hire charges deposited in bank and managed by a sub committee New enthusiasm due to financial empowerment of village institutions Regular meetings held for resolving community related issues while implementing NICRA interventions

Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch NRM interventions In-situ measures Farm bunding with pucca waste weir, 41 farmers, 82 ha, convergence with DWDU (Farmer contribution @ Rs 1000) Stop dams for community use (3) Efficient use thro’ drip irrigation (convergence) Recharging of wells Border plantation (578 fruit plants)

Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch Crop Inteventions Cumin (GC-4), 170 demos, 68 ha, 32% increase, 9.5 vs 7.2 q/ha) Cotton (drip irrigation), 20 farmers, 31 ha Cluster bean (GG-2), 100 demos, 40 ha, 26% productivity increase (17.5 vs 13.8 q/ha) Castor (GCH-7), 15 demos, 6 ha, 16% productivity increase (40 q vs 36.6 q/ha)

Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch Livestock interventions Improved shelter for livestock for heat stress (5 models) Community fodder production – Dhaman grass Breed improvement in the village (3 pure breed Kankrej bulls) Cattle health, 678 animals, convergence with Dept. Milk yield increased by 15-25% in the village

Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch VCRMC Custom hiring centre Rs 30000 Fodder sorghum (Gundri) (860 kg), Lucerne (620 kg) Seed bank Community fodder bank, 380 animals, 142 livestock owners Bank deposit Rs 3.25 lakhs 24 meetings, Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch Zonal Monitoring Committee (ZMC) recommendations: Mineral Nutrient Feed Blocks Scaling up of seed & fodder bank

Simple agronomic options can increase adaptation

Conclusions Climate change is a reality Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to climatic variability and climate change. This will be one of the major factors influencing future food security. Adaptation strategies including technological interventions, management practices, institutional and policy interventions can help minimize negative impacts. Crop and/or land use diversification may be one of the proposition. Under technology demonstration component of NICRA, a number of climate resilient practices and technologies have shown promising results. Mainstreaming of these smart practices in NMSA has begun with a Policy Dialogue with the Ministry of Agriculture for its out scaling. Initiative taken for follow-up of TDC on cluster village basis through National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change. Need for evolving suitable insurance products for risk minimization and promote climate change mitigation and adaptation.

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