1 Weather in the NextGen Era- Progress and Challenges Ahead Steve Abelman NWS Office of Science and Technology May 4, 2010 Steve Abelman NWS Office of Science and Technology May 4, 2010

2 Overview The vision of NextGen weather (only 2 slides, I promise!) Progress toward an initial operating capability Capability Evaluation Numerical Model Enhancements Forecaster In/Over the Loop Techniques Aviation Weather Testbed Challenges Ahead The Transition from “NowGen” to NextGen Product Consistency Probabilistic Information The vision of NextGen weather (only 2 slides, I promise!) Progress toward an initial operating capability Capability Evaluation Numerical Model Enhancements Forecaster In/Over the Loop Techniques Aviation Weather Testbed Challenges Ahead The Transition from “NowGen” to NextGen Product Consistency Probabilistic Information

3 The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) NextGen is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation System in order to: Increase capacity and reliability Improve safety and security Minimize the environmental impact of aviation Weather impacts today: Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information NextGen is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation System in order to: Increase capacity and reliability Improve safety and security Minimize the environmental impact of aviation Weather impacts today: Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information Aviation Weather Today NextGen (new requirements) Not integrated into aviation decision support systems (DSS) Today’s requirements can lead to inconsistent info Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making purposes) Disseminated in minutes Updated by schedule Fixed product formats (graphic or text) “Stovepipes” Totally integrated into DSS Updated requirements/ Nationally consistent High temporal resolution Disseminated in seconds Updated by events Flexible formats The 4-D Cube! ***The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.***

4 The 4-D Weather Data Cube A Conceptual Model 4-D Wx Cube Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Integration into User Decisions Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations ForecastingForecasting 4D Wx SAS Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings Private Sector Forecaster Forecast Systems Forecast Integration Statistical Forecasting Systems Numerical Modeling Systems

5 4-D Wx Data Cube Collaborations The FAA and NOAA are jointly developing the 4-D Wx Data Cube (Cube). The FAA and NOAA interact with many different organizations in order show interagency cooperation as well as demonstrating Cube capability. The following organizations are common collaborators: National Weather Service (NWS) NOAA Global Systems Division (GSD) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Labs (MIT/LL) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) Department of Defense (DoD) The FAA and NOAA are jointly developing the 4-D Wx Data Cube (Cube). The FAA and NOAA interact with many different organizations in order show interagency cooperation as well as demonstrating Cube capability. The following organizations are common collaborators: National Weather Service (NWS) NOAA Global Systems Division (GSD) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Labs (MIT/LL) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) Department of Defense (DoD)

6 FY10 Capability Evaluation: Objectives Since FY07, a yearly IT Demonstration (called Capability Evaluation starting in FY10) is conducted in order to exemplify progress towards the development of the Cube. For the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation, the following objectives were established: Primary Objective: To simulate operational Cube functionality as closely as possible to show how the Cube will operate at the Initial Operating Capability (IOC), including all applicable Cube standards and any available hardware and software infrastructure. Secondary Objective: To test performance and security of data dissemination utilizing Cube standards. Since FY07, a yearly IT Demonstration (called Capability Evaluation starting in FY10) is conducted in order to exemplify progress towards the development of the Cube. For the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation, the following objectives were established: Primary Objective: To simulate operational Cube functionality as closely as possible to show how the Cube will operate at the Initial Operating Capability (IOC), including all applicable Cube standards and any available hardware and software infrastructure. Secondary Objective: To test performance and security of data dissemination utilizing Cube standards.

7 FY10 Capability Evaluation: Architecture The diagram below shows the anticipated data flows for the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation. Data will be published by those participating in the Evaluation with the actual Evaluation being completed at the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center. The diagram below shows the anticipated data flows for the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation. Data will be published by those participating in the Evaluation with the actual Evaluation being completed at the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center.

8 Numerical Model Enhancements NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts NOAA producing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away CoSPA depends on HRRR NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts NOAA producing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away CoSPA depends on HRRR

9 WRF-RR to HRRR Observed 13-km RUC 3-km HRRR

10 Forecaster In/Over the Loop In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, forecaster responsibilities will change Some current initiatives: Autonowcaster – convective initiation Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output C&V Grids into NDFD and NWS Eastern Region initiatives to use grids for TAF production But the real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is a necessity! In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, forecaster responsibilities will change Some current initiatives: Autonowcaster – convective initiation Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output C&V Grids into NDFD and NWS Eastern Region initiatives to use grids for TAF production But the real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is a necessity!

11 ‘01 ‘02‘03‘04‘05‘06‘07‘08‘09 C-SIG Climo Convective SIGMET Climatology CIP-40 Current Icing Potential – 40 km NCWF/D National Convective Forecast & Diagnostic CIP-20 Current Icing Potential – 20 km ADDS Aviation Digital Data Service GTG Graphical Turbulence Guidance G-AIRMET Graphical AIRMET FPT Flight Path Tool CIP Severity Current Icing Product - Severity FIP Forecast Icing Potential TEGO (Test, Experiment, Guidance, Operational) AWTT (Aviation Weather Technology Transfer) NWEC NextGen Wx Eval Capability Technology Transfer Process Fully Operational CCS Candidate Replaced Not Yet Approved for Oper use GTG-2 Graphical Turbulence Guidance NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed: Past Success:

12 NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed Today: Location: Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO Purpose: Test, evaluate, and refine new and emerging weather forecast technologies for eventual inclusion into the National Airspace System FY10 Projects: 2010 Spring Experiment at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (Convection) Volcanic Ash model review and evaluation CoSPA and LAMP evaluation (2010 Spring Experiment) Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) test and refinement NextGen Capability Evaluation (September, FAA Tech Center) Future Projects: AWIPS-II OT&E Next Generation Turbulence (GTG-N)

13 From “NowGen” to NextGen Do we have to change the FARs and other regulations to meet NextGen Requirements? When planning for alternate airports what impact will forecasts updated every 15 minutes have? Some of the FOC NextGen requirements are estimated here to the right Today’s forecast operations cannot meet these requirements! Do we have to change the FARs and other regulations to meet NextGen Requirements? When planning for alternate airports what impact will forecasts updated every 15 minutes have? Some of the FOC NextGen requirements are estimated here to the right Today’s forecast operations cannot meet these requirements!

14 Product Consistency A huge challenge for NOAA/NWS (and no doubt the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs Also a weather consumer challenge as we are barraged by weather data The “SAS” definition specifies ATM decision- makers only A huge challenge for NOAA/NWS (and no doubt the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs Also a weather consumer challenge as we are barraged by weather data The “SAS” definition specifies ATM decision- makers only

15 Probabilistic Information From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes… We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty Aviation decisions are deterministic From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes… We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty Aviation decisions are deterministic 30% “likely” “I believe…” “There is a high Probability…” “This model Indicates…” “numerous” From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes… We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty Aviation decisions are deterministic From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes… We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty Aviation decisions are deterministic 30%