HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, :00 PM

Hurricane Earl – 12:45 PM

HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION Earl will pass about 75 miles southeast of Nantucket around or just after midnight tonight – as a weakening but large Category 1 hurricane Primary area of concern continues to be Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard for wind Primary area of concern for localized flash flood potential is broader and covers eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island

HURRICANE EARL WATCHES/WARNINGS Hurricane Warning: – Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard Tropical Storm Warning – New Haven CT to Woods Hole MA – North of Sagamore Beach to Hull Tropical Storm Warning over land north of Hull canceled but remains over Mass Bay, Stellwagen Bank, and coastal waters about Cape Ann

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS Marine High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents through Saturday – Along most ocean exposed beaches whether south or east facing – High surf and dangerous rip currents may be the greatest risk to life – Seas over open coastal waters 10 to 20 feet to left of track 20 to 30+ feet very near track 30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Wind Tropical Storm Force winds Cape Cod and the Islands with hurricane force gusts possible – especially over the outer Cape and Nantucket Tropical Storm force gusts likely rest of Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline – Possibility of a short duration of sustained tropical storm force winds immediate Rhode Island south coast, including Block Island, Buzzards Bay coast, and Plymouth County coast Gusts strong enough for scattered tree damage and scattered power outages along and southeast of a Boston to Providence corridor

WIND SPEEDS Outer Cape and Nantucket – NE, then N, and NW 40 to 50 mph with gusts 70 to 80 mph possible Rest of Cape and Martha’s Vineyard – NE, then N and NW 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph possible Rhode Island coast (incl. Block Island) and Plymouth County coast in Massachusetts – NE to N to NW winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph Rest of immediate Massachusetts coast and along Boston to Providence corridor: – NE to N to NW winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible

WIND TIMELINE Gusts to near Tropical Storm force arrive south coast and islands by around 5 PM Strongest winds for a 3 to 6 hour duration between 8 PM and 3 AM for most locations – Signal suggesting peak gusts could be from N or NW 11 PM to 3 AM Winds diminishing 4 to 8 AM W to NW winds gusting to 30 knots Saturday late morning and afternoon

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Heavy Rain/Flooding 2 to 4 inches of rain with narrow band or two of higher amounts eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island – Flash Flood Watch for all of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island For localized urban poor drainage or small stream flooding 1 to 3 inches possible for eastern Connecticut and portions of Worcester County Heaviest rain 4 PM to midnight – Tropical downpours can dump over an inch within an hour River flooding not so much a concern as street flooding and flooding of small streams with urban drainages

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Minor Storm Surge Flooding at Worst Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet may cause minor flooding along vulnerable portions of the Nantucket, Chatham and Martha’s Vineyard shoreline during this evening’s high tide Surge of around 2 feet may cause spotty minor coastal flooding Narragansett Bay – not a serious concern Rain runoff will come after high tide along Narragansett Bay Splash over around the time of the late afternoon high tide ocean exposed RI south coast due to large breakers Up to 2 feet of surge rest of Massachusetts east coast during the evening high tide with splash over possible Minor storm surge flooding possible for Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors after Earl passes Friday night – 3 to 6 foot surge possible 2 to 4 AM but between high tides

POST HURRICANE EARL Mostly Sunny and gusty Saturday – NW wind gusts 30 to 35 mph Swells, surf, and rip currents subsiding during Saturday but still dangerous May have some lingering rip current concerns on Sunday…especially east facing coasts