1. Dan Noah NWS Ruskin Email to reach Operations sr-tbw.ops@noaa.gov Download this and archived Webinar PPTs & PDFs at http://go.usa.gov/9ark http://go.usa.gov/9ark “T.S. Colin”

2. Potential Impacts Tropical Depression 3 forecast to become Tropical Storm Colin late this afternoon as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula 1.Above normal tides 1-3 ft Mon afternoon into Tues morning Down a bit from previous forecast NHC/NWS Ruskin will re-evaluate for 7 pm Webinar 2.Flooding rain of 4”-6” Mon-Tue Night, isolated 8” Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough. Fast moving system means rain totals down from previous forecasts River flooding possible Monday night and persisting into Wednesday 3.Moderate Risk for tornadoes Monday & Monday evening

3. Tropical Storm Warning Tropical Storm Warning

4. NHC Wind Timing & Impact 4 PM Monday Max wind to be within rain bands as they pass through county Barrier Islands and areas near coast Sustained 45-50 mph with higher gusts Inland 35-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph

5. Wind Speed Probabilities - Sustained 39+ mph wind http://digital.weather.gov/

6. Coastal and Bay Flooding Potential Cedar Key to Hernando Beach 12 pm – 9 pm Monday 3 ft AGL @high tide (5 ft MSL on Tide Poles in Levy County) Hernando Beach to Longboat Key Barrier Islands: 2 ft AGL 10 am – 2 pm Monday Tampa Bay 3 ft AGL in Bay 12p-6p. Bayshore Blvd floods at 3.5 ft at high tide Longboat Key to Englewood Barrier Islands 2 ft AGL 10 am – 3 pm Monday1 Charlotte Harbor 2 ft 1 pm – 7 pm Monday2-3 ft AGL Less than 2 ft Englewood south

7. Know Your Tides http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/index.shtml?type=TidePredictions&region= Click on Pin then click here

8. Visualize Surge Flooding Potential https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/ Sea Level Rise & Coastal Flooding Impacts: 1-6 feet surge at high tide Crystal River - Kings Bay 3 ft Surge + High Tide

9. 6-8 inches 4-6 inches 1-2 inches 3-4 inches Heavy Rainfall Forecast Sun-Tue Night 4-6 inches 3-4 inches 2-3 inches 3-4 inches 2-3 inches

10. Rainfall / Flood Impacts If realized: Impact Monday & Tuesday Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, Pasco, Pinellas & Hillsborough Rivers could and overspill their banks, mainly in historically vulnerable places Areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas Flood waters may prompt several evacuations and road closures

11. Tornado Threat 4 PM Monday Right front quadrant relative to the motion of the storm has the highest risk Moderate risk for all counties in west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday evening

12. Potential Impacts Tropical Depression 3 forecast to become Tropical Storm Colin late this afternoon as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula 1.Above normal tides 1-3 ft Mon afternoon into Tues morning Down a bit from previous forecast NHC/NWS Ruskin will re-evaluate for 7 pm Webinar 2.Flooding rain of 4”-6” Mon-Tue Night, isolated 8” Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough. Fast moving system means rain totals down from previous forecasts River flooding possible Monday night and persisting into Wednesday 3.Moderate Risk for tornadoes Monday & Monday evening

13. New SLOSH Model v1.77 – Google Earth KMZ Files CAT 0 (Tropical Storm) & CAT 1 MOMs KMZ Files available at http://go.usa.gov/9arkhttp://go.usa.gov/9ark In Google Earth, zoom in then right click on square of interest then click “Properties” to get height above average ground level in square

14. http://weather.gov/tampabay http://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay http://facebook.com/NWSTampaBay Hurricane Threat & Impact Graphics http://digital.weather.gov http://youtube.com/NWSTampa sr-tbw.ops@noaa.gov Download this and archived Webinar PPTs & PDFs at http://go.usa.gov/9ark http://go.usa.gov/9ark Contact Us