1. Weather Briefing Dangerous Early Season Winter Storm October 29, 2011 Prepared 3pm EDT Saturday, October 29, 2011 Nelson Vaz– Senior Meteorologist NOAA’s National Weather Service New York, NY Forecast Office

2. Executive Summary Historic and Dangerous Early Season Nor’Easter underway. Damaging Heavy Wet Snow and Strong Winds This Afternoon through Early Tonight across NYC metro and interior. Widespread Tree Damage and Power Outages expected. 8 to 14 inches of snowfall across interior sections…6 to 10 inches of snowfall across NYC metro. Heavy Rain “Changing” to Wet Snow Eastern LI/coastal SE Conn this Evening. Strong to High Winds (25-35 MPH with Gusts 45-60 MPH +). Widespread minor Coastal Flooding with early Tonight High Tides Extremely Dangerous Travel Area Wide into Tonight

3. 200 PM Surface Analysis 10/9/2014 3

4. Forecast for 8 PM This Evening 10/9/2014 4

5. Forecast for 2 AM Tonight 10/9/2014 5

6. Winter Storm/High Wind Warnings 10/9/2014 6

7. HPC’s Additional Forecast Storm Total (Liquid) 7

8. Storm Total (Liquid) Forecast 10/9/2014 8

9. Storm Total Snowfall Forecast 10/9/2014 9

10. Winds 10/9/2014 10 Highest Winds Along Coast - Sustained 25-35 with Gusts 45 to 60 mph+ Winds 20-30 with Gusts to 45 mph Inland Strongest winds this evening through overnight. Widespread tree damage and power outages from combined strong winds and heavy wet snow on trees with full to partial foliage.

11. Coastal Flooding Widespread minor coastal flood threat with early Tonight high tides. Locally moderate coastal flooding across south shore backs bays of western LI.

12. Tidal Forecast 10/9/2014 12

13. Climatology of First Measurable Snow 0.5 Inches in Central Park on 10/21/1952 0.3 Inches in Newark on 10/20/1952 0.5 Inches in Bridgeport on 10/4/1987 10/9/2014 13

14. Further Information National Weather Service New York, NY -http://www.weather.gov/nyc 10/9/2014 14