1. HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY
UPDATED AUGUST 31, 2010
2:30 PM

2. Hurricane Earl – Category 4 Storm

6. HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION
Major category 4 hurricane currently but may encounter dry air to the northwest
NHC track has Earl passing 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket as category 2 or 3 hurricane
Consistent with most computer models that show passage near or just east of 40N 70W “Benchmark”
Average track error 150 miles either side this far out
Interaction with northern U.S. weather system may be critical player

7. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS Marine
High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents likely Thursday through Saturday
Swells from Earl likely by early Thursday
Dangerous rip currents likely along most ocean exposed beaches whether south or east facing Thursday through Saturday
Seas over open coastal waters
10 to 20 feet to left of track
20 to 30+ feet very near track
30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

8. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Wind
Slightly greater than 50/50 probability to Tropical Storm Force winds Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
Around 50/50 risk of hurricane force gusts outer Cape and Nantucket
20 to 30 percent chance of tropical storm force gusts rest of southeast MA along and SE of I-95 corridor (including Boston) as well as southern Rhode Island

9. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Heavy Rain/Flooding
Increasing likelihood of 1+ inches of rain across much of southern New England Thursday night through Friday evening
Axis of 4 to 7 inches of rain possible Cape and Islands
Modest shift of track to west could place axis of 4 to 7 inches of rain across Rhode Island and rest of eastern Massachusetts
Greatest flood risk will be urban drainages

10. HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Storm Surge Flooding
Storm surge of a few feet due to northeast winds could cause flooding along Nantucket Harbor and northeast shore of Martha’s Vineyard, if coinciding with Friday evening high tide
If Hurricane Earl passes closer to outer Cape, then some concern for storm surge flooding behind the storm for Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors