Asian climate change workshop- introduction Julian Hunt Trinity College Cambridge University College London TU Delft.

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Presentation transcript:

Asian climate change workshop- introduction Julian Hunt Trinity College Cambridge University College London TU Delft.

Themes –Asian and global Science ---CC phenomena; --- Modelling ;Concepts Impacts/hazards Causes – emissions (ghg; pollutants) - land surface ; Policies –Integrated approaches? Research and future collaboration

Note IPCC-WMO Curve presented at International meetings. And to policy makers. Not widely known By politicians And policy makers -people live on land!

Global Climate Data Trends 2011 UKMet Office

Global, Snow and Ice (UK Met Office) Modelling of ice edge /extent is not reliable. Effects of varying ice edge on ocean winds and currents could be significant (studies at UCL)

SCHEMATIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESSES-note geographic var’n Less snow/ice -> more volcanoes? More convection in moister atmosphere

(i)Buoyancy + upslope (L s ) upslope turn right (ii) Triggers convective upwind flow (Note L u L uc + L s ; > 3*10 3 km) L u as N, h ; H (Climate; Aerosol; QBO?) Ls as H (Geology) uusualuusual usus Usual -> Unusual  _UPSLOPE Deeper convection?

1. Regimes CASSOU & GULYARDI 2007 CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE WITH GLOBAL WARMING EXTENDED STAGNANT AIR

Asymmetric dishpan experiment-what does el nino do to global circulations? ASU (HpPeng)

Note + 2deg since 1950 –in data for Likely to exceed 4deg by 2100—cf Hansen warning (historic)

DRAG OF URBAN AREA –ALSO TURNS WIND -WEAK BUOYANCY FORCES BELOW INVERSION LAYER. NOTE DOWNWIND WAKE SCALE LR-EXTENDS OVER 10LR – (J.Chan HK) 500KM DOWNWIND OF MEGACITIES (J CHAN..) ; (RIGHT DEFLN IF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CITY AND LOW WIND)

STERN GLOBAL REVIEW _NOT VALID AFTER COP15? NEW IDEAS FOR ?

Normal Econ Dev. Sustainable development (.)' RANGES OF LIKELY EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF COUNTRY Normal Economic Development or with sustainable development policies ILPG – Industrialized low pop. Growth (EU; Japan) IHPG – Industrialized High pop. Growth (USA) DRI – Developing- rapid industrialization- limited pop. Growth (China) DRI(LA) – DRI plus large agricultural sector – high pop. Growth (India) -> DIFFERENT LEGISLATION FOR EACH REGION/COUNTRY- AFTER CANCUN.

Fusion ResearchHybrid Fusion- Fission? Hybrid FF Efficient use of uranium/ thorium resources - no long term radioactive waste (100 yrs)? China – pilot project 2020? No plans for Europe? TOKAMAK Fusion Device OR MORE WIND ENERGY?

Policy Issues -Note International trend for national/regional policies on emissions/ conservation -UNFCC/IPCC role is now monitoring, comparing, and predicting -Need for International cooperation (including UN ) +ASIAN CLIMATE NETWORK? *science, (monitoring ;modelling tropical/polar /terrestial effects on cc) technology-Clean Energy, water; deforestation; bioreactors Finance-Clean Development Mechanism; clean /green trading /pricing Governance- national/(regional?)climate legislation Cultural, Communications-eg water recycling, waste energy; low energy food; life styles.

SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH INTEGRATION BY GOVERNMENTS, COMMUNITIES, INDIVIDUALS IN DIFFERENT GLOBAL REGIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL, ENERGY, TECHNOLOGICAL, AND SOCIAL, SECURITY POLICIES ?, Note advantages – economy (eg adaptation (flooding)and mitigation (clean energy) - public understanding/acceptance (with leadership) Note problems – short term costs versus long term advantages. (reF JH. Proc Inst Civ Engrs uk 2009)