World Meteorological Organization Development of Capacities for Managing Risk Associated with Weather-related Hazards in Middle-East & North Africa (based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006) Jaser Rabadi WMO Regional Office for West Asia, Bahrain

Weather-related hazards ….

We cannot avoid them ….but we can prevent them from becoming disasters $ 1 invested in disaster preparedness can save $ 5 - 10 of disaster-related losses Source: World Resources Institute

Agenda Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events in MENA Region How the WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services can help in disaster risk reduction Analysis of the Response of MENA Countries to the Survey of Meteorological and Hydrological Technical Capacities and Services in Support of Disaster Risk assessment and management How the WMO can help support Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA

Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iran, Islamic Republic of Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Mauritania Morocco Occupied Palestinian Territory Oman Qatar Republic of Yemen Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia United Arab Emirates Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

1. Facts…MENA Hazards Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

Distribution of Natural Disasters in MENA Region (1980-2005) Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium More than 80 % of natural disasters were caused by Weather-related hazards.

Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Casualties Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium (99% Sudan) (90% Iran) Nearly 70 % of casualties were caused by Weather-related hazards.

Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Economic losses (45% Iran 43% Algeria) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium 45 % of economic losses were caused by Weather-related hazards.

2. Increasing Risks Associated With Climate Change Conclusions from 4th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Phenomenon Likelihood Major projected impacts Increased frequency of heat waves Very likely Increased risk of heat-related mortality, health, impacts on ag., … Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events Increased loss of life and property due to flooding. Area affected by drought increases Likely Increased risk of food and water shortage Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Increased risk of deaths, injuries, Potential for population migrations, loss of property, …. Increased incidence of extreme sea level rise Disruption of coastal echo systems, fisheries, infrastructure, water resources, migration of populations.. Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence Very likely 90 to 99% probability Likely 66 to 90% probability 10

WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA

Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction 187 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were Surveyed to Identify: The hydrometeorological hazards affecting their countries Their involvement and role in national organizational and governance structures for disaster risk reduction Their capacities to deliver products and services to support disaster risk reduction Major gaps and needs related to their capacities Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 24/52 54 % 14/19 74 % 139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded Least developed countries: 25/50 50 % Developing countries: 85/137 54 %

Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iran, Islamic Republic of Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Mauritania Morocco Occupied Palestinian Territory Oman Qatar Republic of Yemen Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia United Arab Emirates Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

Capacities of National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities vary highly country-by-country Algeria Iran, Islamic Republic of Jordan Saudi Arabia Tunisia Bahrain Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Egypt Globally Averaged Results Qatar Oman Morocco United Arab Emirates Sudan Republic of Yemen

Number of responding countries who identified themselves as being affected by specific hazards Top 10 hydrometeorologocial hazards include strong winds, thunderstorm or lightning, flash floods, sand storms, heat wave, dense fog and drought

Archival of Hazard Data vs. Socio-Economic Impact Data The socio-economic impacts of hazards are archived by only a few countries

Warnings which are Nationally Mandated through National Meteorological service, National Hydrological Service, combined service or other agencies The majority countries are mandated to provide warnings for the top ten hazards

Support provided by NMHSs (through expertise, products and services) to agencies responsible for disaster risk reduction

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide early warning information to: The majority of NMHSs provide early warning information to government ministries, news media, general public and emergency response services

Meaning ???? Capacities or Services, in support of disaster risk management: Vary highly from country to country; Capacity development would be needed at different levels.

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind Food security Transport Intensity Health Industry Urban areas Exposure is increasing ! Hazard Need for Prevention and Mitigation Frequency

How Can WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Help in Disaster Risk Reduction?

Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification and Assessment Risk Reduction (Prevention & Mitigation) Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification Sectoral planning Early warning systems Emergency preparedness & planning Catastrophe insurance/ bond markets Alternative risk transfer EWS are a critical part of disaster risk management Education, Training and Information and Knowledge Sharing

Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling …. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling …. Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies Future hazard trend analysis Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts Probabilistic climate models –

Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008. Risk Assessment/Partnership UNDP and World Bank Flood, Drought, Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms 1. Standardized hazard data and metadata 2. Standardized hazard analysis and mapping methodologies 3. Mainstreaming risk assessment in sectoral planning (partners) 4. Capacity development and training 5. Demonstration projects in selected countries FLOOD SEVERE STORMS / TROPICAL CYCLONES DROUGHT Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008.

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Information providers for sectoral planning (agriculture, water resources, transport, tourism, health, etc.) Early warning systems Probabilistic forecasting and warnings Integration of risk information into warning messages Communication and dissemination Supporting emergency preparedness and response Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations Shift from emergency response to risk reduction through prevention and preparedness…

post-disaster response Why are early warning systems not working? Communities at risk National to local governments In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster reduction management and focus remains on post-disaster response post-disaster response NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological warning Geological Marine Health (etc.)…

Effective Early Warning Systems Community Preparedness National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms Feedback preventive actions Feedback warning warning COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) warning Feedback

Effective Early Warning Systems (different view) National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical components Need for coordination and collaborations among various types of agencies for implementation and strengthening of EWS

project in MENA countries WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWS EWS Demonstration projects Europe France 8 South-Eastern Europe countries (with World Bank and ISDR) European river basin (transboundary) Asia China (Shanghai) India North America, Central America and the Caribbean United States/Canada transboundary Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador in Central America (with World Bank and IFRC) Technical Capacity Development for Specific Hazards Severe weather (Southern Africa and Pacific) Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa) Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa) Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa) Opportunities to initiate coordinated multi-hazard early warning systems project in MENA countries

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification and Assessment Risk Reduction (Prevention & Mitigation) Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification Sectoral planning Early warning systems Emergency preparedness & planning Education and training Catastrophe insurance/ bond markets Alternative risk transfer EWS are a critical part of disaster risk management Information and Knowledge Sharing

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement Forecasts for management of risk portfolio Technical support and service delivery

WMO Initiative in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets Partners: World Bank, World Food Programme, Reinsurance, WRMA Guidelines for standardized data and forecast products Work with partners on country-specific cases; Development of standard indices (technical commissions); Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations); Modernization of observing networks, data rescue programmes and capacity development of NMHS; Raise political awareness on benefits of NMHSs products and services (with private and public partners).

World Meteorological Organization How can the WMO support projects in MENA?

WMO Strategic Goals in DRR - Key Words Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations Public outreach campaigns Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.

Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Telecommunication System Global Data Exchange: WMO Resolutions 40 and 25 Global Data Processing and Forecasting 37

Leveraging WMO Regional Forecasting Centers to Assist Members WMO’s Global Data Processing and Forecasting Centres MENA Countries Sharing Resources and Providing Technical Support for Analysis and Forecasting (short to long term)

Regional Training Centres MENA Countries Promoting use of relevant new and emerging technologies and techniques for effective provision of meteorological and hydrological services in support of sustainable development

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Hazard analysis, advisory and warning services for a wide range of hazards Feedbacks, needs, requirements

Examples of Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region Agriculture: Desert Locust, with FAO

Other Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region Transport Water Resource Management Health Industry & infrastructure Marine Safety

Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region Across all sectors: Climate Outlooks and El Nino / La Nina updates

Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making Improved Information to assess future climate scenarios WMO/World Bank Project: Africa Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Downscaling Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making 44

Modernization of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region: Enhancing Potential Contributions to DRR Bahrain* Islamic Republic of Iran Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Oman Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates* * With support from UNDP

WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region At the international level, WMO is Partner of World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, WHO, FAO, OCHA, UNOSAT, and Member of GFDRR, ISDR System Management Oversight Board. WMO and NMHSs assume a lead role in implementation of Hyogo Framework for Action, particularly related to the second Priority for Action, “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.” At regional and national levels, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Specialised Centres (Casablanca, Algiers, Tunis, Cairo, Jeddah) should be considered as partners for disaster risk reduction

WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region Provision of hazard information data, forecast and mapping to support: Risk assessment Sectoral Planning (infrastructure, food security) Financial risk transfer markets Capacity development in multi-hazard early warning systems Operational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Organizations and RCRC Providing expertise in assessments and capacity development projects and implementation planning Coordinated projects among partners to assist countries in a more comprehensive manner

Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters For more information please contact: Dr Jaser Rabadi WMO Representative for West Asia UN House, PO Box 26814, Manama, Bahrain Tel. : 00 973 173 19 401 Fax. : 00 973 173 11 607 Cell : 00 973 390 64 305 Email: JRabadi@wmo.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters