The food crisis, water crisis and economic development: Food scarcity Water scarcity Poverty Simon Cook Basin focal projects Challenge Program on Water and Food

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 My talk… Global crisis of food, water and development How does this crisis appear in river basins? Realities and underlying causes? Conclusions and policy targets

Niger We analyze patterns in 10 basins globally

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Why study at a GLOBAL scale? To understand drivers of problems –These are not random To compare across basins –Solutions often come from outside To enable judgments under uncertainty –Sometimes it helps to know why

World food & water crisis Food crisis Water crisis

…World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water Africa World Asia MENA ‘ 000 m 3

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 The poorest rely on agriculture – the livelihood base Other activities contribute later Size of bubble proportional to rural population Economic development

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Global picture Food production must increase …food production consumes huge volumes of water Other demands also increasing Food & water systems need co- development to support broad change …without compromising environmental flows

What the food & water crisis looks like in river basins

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Limpopo

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Yellow River: China’s sorrow

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Mekong: Conflict over hydropower

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Mekong: China’s view

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Ganges

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Andes

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Summary of the news from basins News tends to report events, not causes –Crises make good headlines of conflict, catastrophe, Longer term stories not so sexy –Success is a slow steady process –Failure of the food and water system a (non story) of ‘not much happening’

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Looking more closely at factors in basins that influence development Water availability Water use Water related hazard Water productivity

Water availability less influential than we might think Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP Per capita income vs. water availability World Bank, 2008

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Water availability is one poverty factor…of many From Sao Francisco Torres et al., 2008 Drought Poor education Access to credit Poverty

Devaraj de Condappa Volta Water use Grassland dominates water use Rainfed crops >> irrigated Runoff generated differentially within basin

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 From Kirby et al., 2009 Nile: Rainfed agriculture by far the biggest user Grassland 45% RF crops 27% Irrigation ~1%

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 How people develop from water use: Globally, irrigation supports dense populations …. Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed Relative values better than absolutes Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed Woodland + Grass Irrigated Rainfed …but not in Africa (or Latin America)

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Fish and livestock much more important than we realized Andean Fish Livestock Crops YR L Ni SFM G Woodland / other K Grass Irrigation Rainfed cropping Net runoff Rainfall (normalised) ET (normalised)

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Water related hazard Flood Drought Disease If uncontrolled, a major obstacle to investment

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Limpopo

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Eastham 2009 (Preliminary draft) Drought

Volta Malaria prevalence 0 100%

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Water productivity Benefit per m 3 water consumed Key diagnostic of how much people gain Applies to –irrigated crops –rainfed crops, livestock –fish

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Water productivity must respond faster than demand crisis response WP time Demand

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Water productivity: In some places responding to demand Mac Kirby, 2007 Rice VN, Mekong Delta Vietnam VN Central Highlands Laos Cambodia NE Thailand

Volta Generally <<0.2 kg/m 3 African basins, Wproductivity low or patchy Potential= ~2 kg/m 3 IRD, 2007 – Limpopo, generally v. low (a few high patches) – Volta V low but with some patches – Niger WPr very low – Nile, Large areas of very low WPr Extremely high in Delta (including aquaculture)

Actual water productivity well below potential Basins in Asia responding to pressure… …most in Africa ‘dormant’ Wpr (potential) Volta Limpopo Nile Niger Ganges Yellow Mekong

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 The water and food crisis is really a development crisis Final thoughts What factors are preventing people moving “up the slide”?

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 4 causes of water-related poverty Water scarcity: –A problem but not necessarily the worst Lack of access or unequal sharing: –Widespread problem, but less certain effect Exposure to hazard: –Drought, flood, water-related diseases Low water productivity: –Very widespread –Other factors prevent full benefit

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 4 targets for water-related policy Water scarcity: –(not sure what can be done) Lack of access or unequal sharing: –Institutions, informed and transparent politics Exposure to hazard: –Forecasting, mitigation, risk sharing Low water productivity: –Focus on agriculture as the first driver of change –Institutes to support integrated development

Consider the development trajectory Agriculture contribution to growth (%) World Bank, 2008 % Rural poor % Contribution of agriculture to GDP Volta Niger Limpopo Nile Basins in Africa strongly agricultural

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 …the development trajectory determines conditions and options Rural poverty Agriculture as % of GDP Andes Sao Fran Karkheh Yellow Niger Nile IGB Limpopo Volta Mekong Agriculture only Extreme poverty Low WR development (no irrigation) Complex LLH support High vulnerability (LS and fish may dominate) Some sectors moving Pressure on others Agriculture ‘left behind?’ Institutions imbalanced - risky Markets very active Rural poor in pockets Institutions developing power to cope Improved potential for ecosystem services

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Conclusions Food and water insecurity are most obvious effects of the global F&W crisis –But power shortages, loss of livelihoods and land use change less dramatic, but worrisome in long term Water scarcity a problem Lack of access to water and vulnerability to hazard more widespread. Main obstacle is low water productivity due to low activity of food system

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Thank you

Consider the development trajectory Agriculture contribution to growth (%) World Bank, 2008 % Rural poor % Contribution of agriculture to GDP Volta Sao Francisco Karkheh Mekong Niger Limpopo Andes IGB YR Nile