1. Water Crisis in the Middle East

2. Contents The Importance of Water The Water Problem Water Scarcity
Climate
Water Sources
Politics and Conflict
Use of Irrigated Agriculture
Increasing Availability of Water
Government Initiatives
World Community
Summary
As you can see this topic is very broad as it also spans over many decades, thus this presentation offers only a small insight into this subject.

3. The Importance of Water
Human & Environmental Health
Economic Growth / Poverty Reduction
Food Security
Energy Generation / Flood Control
Civilization has historically flourished around rivers and major waterways and is a crucial requirement for (!)
- Human & Environmental Health (!)
- Economic Growth / Poverty Reduction (!)
- Food Security (!)
- Energy Generation / Flood Control (!)
- Conflict Prevention
Conflict Prevention

4. The Water Problem Uneven Distribution Water Scarcity
Enough water for everyone in the world, however distribution is tremendously imbalanced and the infrastructure inadequate
MENA region accounts for about 5 % of the world population yet has less than 1 % of the world’s renewable freshwater
Water Scarcity
By 2025, 25% of the world’s population will live in regions that will experience severe water scarcity
A large proportion of this 25% includes 17 countries from the Middle East
The problem is that water is unevenly distributed....
This can be seen with the statistic that The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (READ) Showing this great uneven distribution of water around the world.
This leads to water scarcity and According to International Water Management Institute, by
This lack of water is severely detrimental to the development of these countries. But what is water scarcity?
Sources: World Bank, UN

5. Demand for water outstrips the lands’ ability to provide
Water Scarcity
Water Scarcity
‘the point at which the aggregate impact of all users impinges on the supply or quality of water under prevailing institutional arrangements to the extent that the demand by all sectors, including the environment, cannot be satisfied fully’
Physical
Demand for water outstrips the lands’ ability to provide
Economic
Water is sufficient to meet user demand but lack the funds to develop the necessary infrastructure to access the resources
The UN gives a long definition for this as shown, a short version is that water scarcity occurs when the demand for water exceeds the available amount
Now, there are two main causes of water scarcity…. (READ)
Source: UN

6. Water Scarcity
From this map it can be seen that the majority of water problems lie near the equator, (!) with the Middle East suffering from both physical and economic scarcity, whether it is due to the high population growth rate leading to the unsustainable uptake from aquifers or poorly maintained water ways. Countries in this region are either facing problems now, or will in the near future.
Source: FAO

7. Climate Summer temperatures between 30-40°C
Droughts and water shortages are permanent features with dry periods lasting 6-10 months
Most areas are considered arid i.e. <250mm of rainfall per year
With global warming, the climate in the Middle East is set to become less favourable
The climate has a crucial role to play as it determines the extent of the availability of water. (!)
Across the Middle East summer temperatures often range between 30-40°C (!)
Droughts and water shortages are permanent features in most countries in the region. Rainfall is low in most parts but highly variable seasonally and inter-annually. Precipitation occurs here only in the winter with long summer dry periods lasting 6-10 months (!)
Most areas in the Middle East live in either extremely arid lands with 0 mm per year or arid lands which have less than 250 mm of rainfall per year (USGS, 2001). (!)
With the effects of global warming now beginning to show, the climate in the Middle East is set to become less favourable and will soon start to experience hyper arid conditions. Droughts are likely to occur and will decrease water availability, the consequences of this are widespread and life threatening. Since it is clear that the Middle East cannot depend on rainfall as a steady source of water, they are resorting to other water sources.

8. Water Sources
The Middle East depends on vast underground aquifers as shown here on the map, as well as 3 main river systems which include, the....

9. Water Sources Nile Nile
Which flows from central Africa through to Egypt where it empties into the Mediterranean Sea.
It is these coastal Mediterranean regions where the mountains of Turkey and Iran lie that are favourably endowed with water and where the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers originate.

10. Water Sources Euphrates
With the Euphrates originating in the mountains in eastern Turkey, it flows through Syria and Iraq to join the Tigris in the Shatt al-Arab, which then empties into the Persian Gulf.

11. Water Sources
Tigris
And then finally the Tigris which flows south from the mountains of south eastern Turkey through Iraq where it joins the Tigris and then again empties into the Persian Gulf.

12. Politics & Conflict Major ‘Hot’ Spots
With these increases in population size comes with it a greater demand for this limited resource and thus conflict can ensue.
As shown by the map the Middle East is where this conflict over water is most prevalent. The Arab countries have the least renewable water supply per capita of any region in the world and thus tensions run high within this area.
Since populations are going to carry on increasing, the demand for freshwater will follow suit. The control of water could be a devastating weapon in Middle East conflicts and will certainly have a significant influence in shaping the Middle East’s political development. This is already starting to occur.
Major ‘Hot’ Spots
Source: USAID

13. Politics & Conflict Euphrates Tigris Southwest Anatolia Project
There are two examples in the Middle East where powerful countries have dictated the allocation of water resources with devastating affect.
Since demand for water in this region is high, deciding on distribution agreements is difficult since differing amounts of water originate from different locations, this can create tension between countries as can be seen between Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
Turkey is currently investing billions into developing the (!) Southwest Anatolia Project on the Euphrates and the Tigris River. The aim of this project is to eliminate regional development disparities of 9 million people by raising people's income level and living standards. However it has involved building 22 Dams along the two rivers which has had severe consequences for those downstream. Various studies produce different results, but on average it is estimated that Syria will lose 40% and Iraq 80% of their supply from the Euphrates.
This coupled with the fact that Syrias and Iraqs water stress has worsened over the past three years, when precipitation has diminished to less than 50 percent of the average annual quantity has caused economic and social unease. This has resulted in large-scale internal migration.
Euphrates
Tigris
Majority of water originates from Turkey
Receives negligible amounts when passing through Iraq
Receives 60% of its water from tributaries joining it in Iraq
Iraq less vulnerable to upstream developments compared to Euphrates

14. Politics & Conflict Aquifers
The second example of water control involves Israel’s use of its international and military power to dictate the outcomes on the West Bank and Gaza Strip with regard to their aquifer use. After June 1967 when Israel took control of these regions they imposed regulations which severely restrained the growth of Palestinian consumption. This caused great resentment among the Palestinians of the West Bank, especially when the springs began to run dry. To further rub salt in their wounds, when Jewish settlers moved into the West Bank, the volume of water in which the settlers consume per person, is five times that of the Palestinians. This is one of many disputes currently on going between Israelis and Palestinians.
Each trans-boundary aquifer holds another potential for international conflict - if two countries share an aquifer, pumping in one country will affect its neighbour's water supply

15. Politics & Conflict Nile Shared between 9 countries
Population size of countries rising
Egypt's main source of water
Egypt current at quota consumption limit under the 1959 agreement
When looking at the Nile, the potential for conflict is tremendous since
(!) The Nile is shared between nine countries, (!) whose populations are growing rapidly and are expected to double in less than two decades (UN, 1992). (!) Egypt is particularly vulnerable as the Nile is its main source of fresh water and it is situated downstream of all the other Nile basin states. (!) Furthermore, Egypt is currently at the limit of its allowed water consumption quota under the 1959 agreement. Thus the outlook of this situation is particularly bleak for Egypt.

16. Politics & Conflict
Another area where politics is playing a part in shaping the accessibility to water was highlighted recently in the Economist. In this they described how 32 countries have recently acquired millions of hectares of food-producing lands and water in other countries, with some of this land being bought situated in the Middle East. Over the past two years, as much as 20 million hectares of farmland in poor countries have been quietly handed over to countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and China. Saudi investors have spent $100 million to raise cereals on leased land in Ethiopia, tax-exempt initially, and are permitted to export the entire crop back to Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the World Food Program implemented a $116 million food aid program to Ethiopia which began back in 2007 and continues through to this day. With this ‘outsourcing’ of crop production, cash-strong governments secure food for themselves while offering little expertise and insignificant trade development for the local populations. This together with the farmers, who lost their land leads to increasing poverty and urban slums. It is this imbalance between what is needed and what is done by the government that needs to be changed. But what is also obvious, is that the dominant objective of these actions is to secure water to grow crops, not just land.
Source: Economist

17. Use of Irrigated Agriculture
Irrigated agriculture consumes approximately 60-75% of total water consumption in the Middle East
Access to water should be prioritised to others
Agriculture has been in decline
Whilst agriculture provides a third of jobs, it contributes to only a fifth of GDP and 14% of foreign exchange earnings
A reduction in agriculture through less irrigation would only be reinforcing this already existing trend
So what is the break down of there water usage?
(!) Irrigated agriculture consumes approximately 60-75% of total water consumption in the Middle East, however this process generally yields low returns per cubic metre compared to other industries, particularly in arid climates such as these. Economic logic suggests that in these water scarce areas, access to water should be prioritised to others and that agriculture bear the brunt of any reductions. It can be argued that losing agriculture would be damaging to the countries involved as it not only creates self-sufficiency and employment, but also earns foreign exchange. (!) However, as is the case in Egypt, this sector has been in relative decline compared to other industries such as manufacturing, oil and gas. (!) Also whilst this sector provides a third of jobs, it contributes to only a fifth of GDP and 14% of foreign exchange earnings (CBE, 1990). Since 1970 Egypt has not had a balance in its trade in agriculture, since it imports a greater amount of its basic foods, (!) So a reduction in agriculture through less use of irrigation would only be reinforcing this already existing trend.
Source: CBE

18. Government Initiatives
Investment in:
Dams
Desalination Technology
Water Services
Organisations
Countries in this region have invested in a variety of schemes with the aim of improving water supply to the people. This includes investment in dams, desalination technology, water services and various organisations.
Dams
Governments in this region have addressed water scarcity and variability by investing heavily in water storage techniques, this helps smooth supply between seasons and minimises supply risks.
Desalination Technology
The Middle East is the largest investor in desalination technology and has consequently brought down the cost of this technique and it is now a reasonable option for drinking water for countries with population centres near the coast.
Water services
There has been investment in water supply and sanitation infrastructure since it is now relatively widespread in the region. Coverage varies by country, but the general trend is that sanitation investments have typically lagged about a decade behind water supply. Furthermore, as in most parts of the world, service in rural communities is lower than in urban areas.
Organisations
Investment in variety of organisations which focus on Water supply, sanitation, Irrigation, Finances and end-user efficiency

19. Scope for Increasing Availability of Surface Water
Reduction of losses
Removal of dams
Conservation measures
It is possible to increase the availability of the surface water through various techniques, here we will look into just a few of them, this includes (!) reduction of losses, (!) the removal of dams and (!) conservation measures.

20. Scope for Increasing Availability of Surface Water
Reduction of Losses
Significant evaporation losses at dams
Can be reduced if dam relocated
Deep valleys in Ethiopia offer better surface area to volume ratio
Requires significant co-ordination between countries
(!) There are significant evaporation losses that occur at some of the dams such as at Lake Nasser. When this lake was maintained at a high level by the High Aswan Dam 13 bcm of water evaporated per year (!) By implementing dams further upstream on the Blue Nile, this would remove the need for this Dam and allow the reservoirs to be moved to the deep valleys in Ethiopia, (!) where evaporation rates are much less due to the geography of the land, giving a better surface area to volume ratio, thus minimising the area exposed to evaporation. (!) Whilst this technique has the potential to save large amounts of water it would require significant co-ordination between the countries.
Note: bcm = billion cubic meters

21. Scope for Increasing Availability of Surface Water
Removal of Dams
Some no longer serve their original purpose
Jebel Auliya Dams reservoir capicity is 5.5bcm
Looses approximately 2.3 bcm to evaporation
(!) Numerous dams exist which no longer serve their original purpose. The Jebel Auliya Dam is a prime example of this, as it was initially built for irrigation and flood control back in 1937, however over the years its requirements have fallen to only maintaining the level of the water to ensure its accessible for the pumps used for irrigation. (!) The cost in terms of water lost to evaporation is significant as the reservoir’s capacity is 5.5 bcm, (!) and approximately 2.3 bcm is lost to evaporation per year.
Source: Hotzl, F.Z

22. Scope for Increasing Availability of Surface Water
Conservation Measures
More efficient irrigation techniques available
Crops with lower requirements for water
And finally conservation measures. Currently many famers still use traditional irrigation techniques; however other methods are available which are far more efficient including sprinklers and drip systems. The farmers could also grow crops which have less demand for water, such as pomegranites and figs which conserve water well, however with changing market prices these crops can sometimes offer low returns on investment and thus lower the desirability to grow them.

23. World Community The World Community should undertake the following:
A plan with designated resources to deal with the potential human and economic calamity;
Construction/financing of basin infrastructure;
Technical and institutional assistance;
Provision of intermediaries/negotiators
Indus Water Agreement between Pakistan and India was a success
So what role does the world community have to play in this situation.
The triggers of growing water shortages are inevitable and thus the role the world community will soon need to take action in the form of (!)
A plan with designated resources to deal with the potential human and economic calamity; (!)
Construction/financing of basin infrastructure (!)
Technical and institutional assistance; (!)
Provision of intermediaries/negotiators
Agreements among regions should seek the joint ownership and benefits of major storage facilities. External help would bring many qualities such as expertise and resource development to name a few. This can be most beneficial as was seen with the (!) Indus Water Agreement between Pakistan and India. Here following a dispute with India, Pakistan requested that the World Bank lend its offices to help negotiate a treaty on the allocation of transboundary water in the Indus River basin. Negotiations ensued and an agreement that entailed construction of several major dams, canals and diversion works, most financed by the World Bank. This agreement was instrumental in ensuring peace and permanent water allocations, essential for the long-term development of Pakistan and India’s northwest. This shows that external help, if done correctly can help solve these problems.

24. Summary Water crisis set to get worse
Use of irrigated agriculture at the moment is not sustainable for these regions
Should look to economic diversification by lifting the economy, allowing people the option of living in different, more sustainable ways
World community help required
Water is helping to shape the Middle East’s political development
Oil was the resource that defined the last century, but water may define this one
Water crisis set to get worse
Use of irrigated agriculture at the moment is not sustainable for these regions
Should look to economic diversification by lifting the economy, allowing people the option of living in different, more sustainable ways
World community help required
Water is helping to shape the Middle East’s political development
Oil was the resource that defined the last century, but water may define this one

25. References
World Bank. (2004). Seawater and brackish water desalinisation in the Middle East - Final Report. World Bank.
UN. (1992). Population and Vital Statistics Report. UN.
UN. (2010). Water Scarcity. Retrieved 2010 йил 24-December from United Nations:
FAO. (2007 йил 2-February). A Comprehensive Assessment ofWater Management in Agriculture. Retrieved 2010 йил 24-December from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations:
FAO. (2009 йил 2009-September). Water scarcity. Retrieved 2010 йил 23-December from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations:
The Economist. (2009, May 21). Outsourcing's third wave. Buying farmland abroad .
Hotzl, F. Z. (2008). Climate Changes and Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa. Berlin: Springer.
IWMI. (2000 йил 4-March). Revealing the Face of Water Scarcity. Retrieved 2010 йил 24-December from International Water Management Institute:
CBE. (1990). Central Bank of Egypt, Annual Report. Cairo, Egypt.