1. The 2002/3 Season in South Africa Complex stresses, complex warnings & responses Ackn: SEI, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, NOAA-OGP, USAID Emma Archer and Gina Ziervogel

2. The big picture for 2002/3… SADC region experienced state of ‘complex crisis’ In South Africa, dry summer rainfall season with substantial impacts Will view at the national and district level Despite improved warning & response support measures; constrained response & adaptation What went wrong ?

3. At the national level in South Africa Limpopo Province: widespread livestock mortalities Potential R46 million payout in aid/subsidy Mpumalanga & Northwest: further livestock mortality and crop water stress

4. At the district level in South Africa Vhembe district: drought impacts Particularly significant north of the Soutpansberg – livestock mortality Crop water stress reported January and ongoing throughout the remainder of the season Built on substandard (quality, not amount) rainfall season of 2001/2002  accumulated effects

5. The good news … A time of advances in climate prediction + intermediary mechanisms Vhembe: forecast received by –Farmers –District institutions Limpopo Province: forecast received by PDA What happened ?

6. Some preliminary ideas EWS itself needs improvement CONSTRAINTS on RESPONSE –Individual Multiple stressors Need to couple EWS with VA –Institutional Institutional issues central to 2002/3 Need to couple EWS with increased institutional capacity building A broad framework for considering such case studies 

7. Climate Population Growth (might be + or – in rural areas) Economic growth Technological change Food insecurity Degraded environment Stressed social relations Relationships between Global/regional/national and local Regional and national drivers Local realisations Key Relationships in the South African case

8. Food security/Drought as a local realization of global, regional, national and local drivers

9. South African Case In the South African story, which are the key relationships that were identified? What is the nature of those relationships –Who are the key actors? –How have the interactions changed over time? –How might the interactions change in the future to best address the local concern?

10. Key Relationships National Department of Agriculture and District Departments Suggestions that relationships have become more complex this year (needs work) Media Radio broadcast of the forecast  SAWS and local users (farmers) Improved this year District organisations and farmers Extension officers Education/outreach Not certain if improved this year Agricultural advisory -ARC and NDA Improved this year (needs work)

11. Conclusions Process mapping is paramount Stakeholder and institutional mapping helps to identify strengths and weaknesses in roles and relationships This helps to focus further action –At the intervention level –For research