1. Upali Amarasinghe IWMI Delhi
National River Linking Project Issues Underlying the Water Demand Estimation
Upali Amarasinghe
IWMI Delhi

2. Outline
NRLP – Rationale, Components, Envisaged Benefits and concerns
IWMI’s Analysis of NRLP
Water Availability across river basins
Water Scarcities of river basins
Issues underlying Water Demand projections

3. 973 – 1180 km3 (low-high scenarios)
NLRP - Rationale
NCIWRD’s water demand projections were the basis for inter basin transfers
Total Water Demand by 2050
973 – 1180 km3 (low-high scenarios)
Irrigation
km3
Domestic
km3
Industrial
63-70 km3
Environ.
20 km3
Others
81 km3
Irrigated Area
Million Hha
Grain demand
Million Mt

4. NLRP - Rationale Key Observations
High water demand > potentially utilizable water resources
Irrigated area ( high demand) > Ultimate potential of 140 M ha
Source:

5. NLRP - Rationale National Water Development Agency (NWDA) states
….for meeting 450 Million Mt of food grains, the irrigation potential has to be increased by 160 million ha for all crops by 2050…..
….. one of the most effective ways to increase the irrigation potential for increasing food grain production, mitigate flood and droughts and reduce regional imbalances in the availability of water is the interlinking of rivers……
Source:

6. NLRP – Project Components
Himalayan component
Store, transfer surplus water Brhamaputra and Ganga river basin to west and south through 14 link canals
Peninsular component
Transfer water to water short areas through 16 link canals
Source:

7. NLRP - Envisaged benefits
Transfer 178 km3 of water through km of link canals
Irrigate 30 million ha
25 M Ha of Surface, 10 M Ha Groundwater)
30,000 MW of hydropower
Flood control
Domestic and Industrial water supplies
Navigation
Salinity and pollution control
Source:

8. NLRP – Concerns
Contentious issue among the civil society, media, and academics
Project concept itself was dubious
Needs assessment was not adequate
Alternative water management/development options were not fully explored
Environmental water needs, especially of the water surplus basins, were not given attention
Social displacement cost was enormous
Total cost of the project is very huge etc.

9. IWMI Analysis of NRLP Phase III 12 Months Phase II 15 Months Phase I
Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050
Phase III
12 Months
Phase II
15 Months
Phase I
9 Months
OUTPUT
ACTIVITIES
PHASE
11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I
A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future /2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the Nation
Phase II A
Phase II B
16 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop II
7 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop III
Phase III A
Phase III B
14 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop IV
8 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop V
How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge 2050?
How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project
If NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050?
How best to put into operation the National Perspective Plan

10. Water Availability – Spatial Variation

11. Water and Food accounting

12. Water Scarcities

13. Issues Underlying Water Demand projections
Total and regional Population growth
Economic growth, Urbanization and Consumption pattern changes
Economic growth and Domestic, Industrial and service sector water demand
Contribution of Irrigated agriculture to crop productivity growth
Expanding groundwater irrigation, environmental impacts
Potential in Rainfed agriculture and rainwater harvesting
Potential of Crop Diversification and Expanding Worlds food trade
Environmental water demand

14. Issues – Regional Population growth to 2050
Population growth Scenario
UN 1994 revision
NCIWRD assumption
UN 2004 Revision (HIV/AIDS in)
New projection??
Low
1346
1333
Medium
1640
1593
High
1980
1581i
1541ii
i – Visaria & Visaria projections < UN Medium projections
ii- New Population projections << could be 40 million less than NCIWRD projections

15. Issues – Regional Population growth
Where would this less growth occur?

16. Issues – Changes in consumption patterns
NCIWRD assumed substantial increase in food grain consumption in projecting total grain demand of 424 to 494 Million Mt.
Assumed 284 Kg/person/year of food grain consumption by 2050
But, consumption has decreased 182 kg/person in 1991 to 175 kg/person by 2000 – A declining trend or ????

17. Issues – Changes in consumption patterns

18. Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand
NCIWRD’s domestic and Industrial water demand projections seems to be on the low side
Withdrawals (m3/pc/year)
1997/
1998
NCIWRD
2050
Low
High
Domestic 30 67 70
Industrial 60 51

19. Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand
Per capita demand would increase many fold by 2050.

20. Grain yield (ton/ha) 1995 2050 Rainfed 1.00 1.5 Irrigated 2.35 4.0
Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield
NCIWRD assumptions of grain yield growth
Grain yield (ton/ha)
1995
2050
Rainfed
1.00
1.5
Irrigated
2.35
4.0
Grain yields in 2050 are low compared with developed countries grain yields ate present.
Are there any scope for increase in water productivity?

21. Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield
What is the contribution of irrigation (surface and groundwater) to crop yield growth?

22. Groundwater Expansion
Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield
Groundwater Expansion

23. Issues – Scope for groundwater expansion and its impacts
Scope for expanding groundwater irrigation and then scope for increasing irrigated crop yield ?
What is the potential for increasing groundwater irrigated area without surface irrigation expansion?
What would be the implications of environmental impacts-depleting water tables, salinity, poor quality groundwater- on existing groundwater area?

24. Issues – Changes in rural employment patterns and Cropping patterns
Future trends of rural employments and their impacts on irrigated area expansion and cropping intensity?
NCIWRD assume that livelihood of much of the population depends on agriculture
What would be impact of cropping patterns changes on irrigated area expansion and cropping intensity increase?
NCIWRD assumes 67%-70% of the total crops area under grain crops by 2025
But the grain crop area as a % of total area has decreased over the last decade and is already below the NCIWRD assumptions.

25. Scope for rainfed crop yield growth with supplemental irrigation?
Issues – Rainfed potential
Scope for rainfed crop yield growth with supplemental irrigation?
Scope for supplemental irrigation through rainwater harvesting?
Locations where rainwater harvesting can have negative impacts?

26. Self sufficiency targets and international trade?
Issues –Virtual water trade
Self sufficiency targets and international trade?
NCIWRD assumes national self sufficiency of grains including animal feed?
What are the implications of WTO agreements of agriculture on food trade?
Scope for virtual water trade between basins and between countries?

27. NCIWRD estimates of Environemntal water demand is only 20 km3.
Issues – Environmental Water Demand
NCIWRD estimates of Environemntal water demand is only 20 km3.
Preliminary estimates of minimum river flows to maintain rivers in fair condition is in the order of 475 km3
What are the environmental water demands of different basins? And How they will affect future water scenarios?

28. Thank You