1. Policy Issues Facing the Food, Agriculture and Rural Sectors and Implications for Agricultural Statistics Mary Bohman and Mary Ahearn Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ISI Satellite Meeting on Agricultural Statistics Maputo, Mozambique August 13-14, 2009

2. Overview Issues driving demand for agricultural statistics Questions lie at the intersection of agriculture, resources, and people Examples –Measuring well-being and off-farm income –Policy outcomes and gender –Resources and environment and links to land Conclusions

3. Food, agriculture, & rural issues high on agenda Global food crisis Climate change and climate policy Bioenergy production Water quantity and water quality Millennium Development Goals

4. Farm and rural prosperity key to MDGs Poverty concentrated in rural areas Agriculture serves as a major source of employment Agriculture is dominant user of natural resources: land and water

5. Global consensus on importance of agriculture Investment by countries and international organizations had fallen –Concern about benefits given shrinking role in economy with growth Broad consensus that prosperity in agriculture supports overall growth –Research finds that investment in rural and agriculture lead to higher rates of overall economic growth

6. Maputo Declaration in 2003 Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa Includes “commitment to the allocation of at least 10 percent of national budgetary resources to agriculture and rural development policy implementation within five years” In 2009, African Union meeting of experts emphasized importance of productivity and resilience in agricultural systems

7. Agricultural statistics key to making smart investments and tracking progress What should be the mix of investments in agriculture and other rural activities? What types of investments best capitalize on differences by gender in outcomes? How do subsidies for fertilizer affect markets and the environment? What are the consequences of investments in alternative energy, including biofuels? How do future changes in climate affect the optimal choice of research investments?

8. Understanding decision-making and behavioral adjustments Economic models provide guidance –Development economists have made important contributions which recognize the close links (nonseparability) of production and household consumption choices –Micro-level data are required for analysis with these models Micro-level data strengthens aggregate statistics –Availability of micro-data changed picture of farm vs national incomes

9. Questions lie at the intersection of agriculture, resources, and people NONFARM HOUSEHOLDS Land Rural communities Water Crops Livestock Climate Energy FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARM BUSINESSES Labor Biodiversity

10. Many farm households rely on off-farm income and strong rural economies The share of farm operators engaged in off-farm work varies across countries

11. Total income and off-farm income vary within countries US farm household income levels and sources vary with farm size Poverty linked to human capital, assets, and off- farm job availability

12. Role of Gender Research has shown that in many countries consideration of gender is critical Giving women more power can lead to beneficial outcomes: –Increasing yields –Improved investments in health and nutrition –Enhanced ability to manage income shocks Agricultural statistics need to consider how to best acquire and analyze data that supports analysis of women’s roles

13. Importance of agricultural employment varies across countries, as does the role of women

14. Agriculture part of global land use Farmer and rancher decisions about land use key to GHG emissions Potential for participation in mitigation represents a complex decision Link land to farm to HH?

15. Panel data: “the holy grail” Decisions about investments and savings critical to productivity growth Inform questions policies to address adverse weather and other shocks

16. Conclusions Role of agricultural statistics to support policy decisions requires understanding how: –resources, production, returns, and household income are distributed among the population –farm and rural households make choices and respond to change Importance of working with data users