Lubëck Octobre 2003 Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2 A freight transportation simulation model An emission permit policy analysis.

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Presentation transcript:

Lubëck Octobre 2003 Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2 A freight transportation simulation model An emission permit policy analysis tool

2 SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2  To model  To apply  To convince

3 To model  Simtrans (developed in ) An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail, Inland waterways) Funded as a Research Program

4 To apply  SimTrans-Co2 ( ) Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)

5 To convince  Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses

6 To model  Simtrans is focused on land transportation and modal split  3 sectors Road Rail Inland Waterways

7 To model  A Modal supply is a combination of Means (Capacity) Productivity Quality

8 To model Means (Capacity) ProductivityQuality

9 To model  Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness  Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels

10 To model Agriculturalproducts Metallurgicalproducts Globaldemand Food Constructionmaterials Otherproducts Chemicals & Fertilizers Energycomponents General menu Demand menu

11 To apply + Simtrans + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol

12 To apply  The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming  In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2  CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010

13 Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.

14 To apply  SimTrans-Co2 explores a C0 2 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)

15 To apply Fuel consumption ProductivityCapacity Unit fuel consumption Investment Emission regulations and norms Co2 emitted Negociable emission permits Taxation Warming effect policy Fuel unit cost Simplified causal diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit a

16 Co2 Emission (ton) 1998 Emission trading has no impact To apply No action 2. Emission credit 3. Gobal policy package 1 2 3

17 To convince Feedback loop analysis

18 To convince Feedback loop analysis -

19 To convince Feedback loop analysis +

20 To convince Feedback loop analysis +

21 To convince Feedback loop analysis -