Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx Congress on Climate Change, Plenary Session (Theme 3) on Reducing the Risks of Climate Change: Opportunities for Mitigation, Copenhagen — 11 March 2009 Towards Complete Decarbonization The World in Transition

Nakicenovic # World Primary Energy

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Global Mean Temperatures are Rising   Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years  /decade

●Sustainable access to energy and food (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) ●Security and reliability of systems ●Deep CO 2 and GHG reductions ●Investment in R&D and deployment ●Climate, Economy, Investment Crises Global Change Challenges

Nakicenovic # Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005

Nakicenovic # Food for a Week, Germany © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005

Two Faces of the Athropocene Astronaut Sunita Williams

Nakicenovic # Pounds (2000 £)/ m lumen-hours Gaslight Kerosene-light Electric-light Trillion lumen-hours Electric-light Gaslight Price Energy service The Example of Lighting Trillion lumen-hours Electric-light Gaslight United Kingdom Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003

Nakicenovic # Global Primary Energy – A2r

Nakicenovic # Global Primary Energy – B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Surface Temperature Change AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Long-Term Stabilization Profiles ~$100/tCO 2 A2 B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Global warming ( o C) A2 B1 B1 450 Vulnerability of Key Sectors Australia and New Zealand

Nakicenovic # Global Mitigation Challenges Significant mitigation potential by 2030 at carbon price up to about $100/tCO 2 (~$370/tC ≡ $50/bbl) Significant mitigation potential by 2030 at carbon price up to about $100/tCO 2 (~$370/tC ≡ $50/bbl) Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentials Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentials “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costs Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costs

Nakicenovic # Emissions and Probability of 2C Based on Forest et al CS PDF Optimal target Feasibility frontier Not attainable economically less desirable Source: Riahiet al., 2008 Source: Riahi, et al., 2008

Nakicenovic # Emissions and Probability of 3C Not attainable economically less desirable Optimal target Feasibility frontier Probability of staying below 3ºC (2100) Based on Forest et al CS PDF Source: Riahiet al., 2008 Source: Riahi, et al., 2008

Nakicenovic # *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C Share of Carbon-Free Energy

Nakicenovic # Energy Supply Investments Supply Side Only *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C

Nakicenovic # *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C Energy Systems Investments Supply Side and End Use

Nakicenovic # Government R&D in IEA countries in billion US$ (2006) Source: Doornboschet al., 2008 Source: Doornbosch, et al., 2008

Nakicenovic # History of US Federal Government R&D JFK Apollo Program Carter Energy Program Reagan “Star Wars” Program Homeland Security

Nakicenovic # Bank lending to energy-sector and total bank lending to emerging markets Energy sector bank lending Total bank lending $ billions * As of September Energy is one-third of total international bank financing Source: World Bank, 2009

●The magnitude of the change required in the global energy system will be huge ●The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses simultaneously climate change, security, equity and economics issues. ●Paradigm change is needed: radical improvements in energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. ●Needs to be globally integrated but with maximum support of countries and local levels. ●In the best spirit of science: fact-based and peer- reviewed 23 Towards a more Sustainable Future

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present and its international partners present