1. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Facing the truth: EU energy policy in the age of shortage of supply How can we ensure energy supply in the long term? Jürgen-Friedrich Hake Head of IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) Forschungszentrum Jülich Germany

2. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake In the 1990s low energy prices seemed to suggest that energy supplies were secure But in the last two years surges in the price of oil, the number one source of energy, and power outages in North America and Europe have shown the urgent need for a renaissance in energy policy targeting secure supply In the longer run, securing energy supplies will be possible only with a broad range of measures The needs of the moment call for the use of all available levers – the diversification of energy carriers and technologies and the mobilisation of all conservation, reactivation and efficiency-boosting strategies Facts

3. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Challenges Energy Policy CompetitivenessSecurity of Supply Climate Protection

4. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Source: World Energy Outlook 2005 World Primary Energy Demand

5. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake EU- Greenpaper 03/2006 Dependency on primary energy carriers is more than 70% high oil / gas prices investment in infrastructure: 1 trillion euros fair and transparent debate about the use of nuclear energy promotion of REN: 21% until 2010 strengthening of internal solidarity climate change mitigation security of supply and common market (electricity and gas) promotion of new technologies

6. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Balance between various sources of energy in primary energy consumption. different global problems have to be faced in the next decade(s): shortage of resources population growth / economic growth climate change increasing dependency on imports of primary energy carriers Energy Mix

7. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake The third priority identified in the Green Paper goes to the heart of a European energy policy, the EUs energy mix. How to reconcile the fact that the choice of a Member States energy mix is and will remain a question of subsidiarity with the reality that choices made by one Member State inevitably have an impact on the energy security of its neighbours and of the Community as a whole? For example, decisions to rely largely or wholly on natural gas for power generation in any given Member State have significant effects on the security of supply of its neighbours in the event of a gas shortage. Decisions by Member States relating to nuclear energy can also have very significant consequences on other Member States in terms of the EUs dependence on imported fossil fuels and CO2 emissions. In reality, therefore, a European approach on the EUs energy mix is vital, that nonetheless respects subsidiarity. Source: Andris Piebalgs /Energy Commissioner A Common Energy Policy for Europe EU Energy Policy and Law Conference Brussels, 9 March 2006 Statement of EU comission

8. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Share of total primary energy supply in different EU countries Source IEA 2003.

9. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake EU-25 energy use (in Mtoe) oil gas nuclear power REN rest coal / lignite

10. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Environmental Protection CompetitvenessSecurity of Supply Innovation + Diversification + Competition Prices Availability Emissions Challenges of Energy Policy

11. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Recommendations (I) 1.Return to a national energy policy is no longer possible due to increasing interdependences But is it necessary to create a common European energy policy? 2.Co-operation in energy policy and climate change issues is essential for European Union Energy policy has to be seen in a global context: geopolitics of oil/gas is back! How to integrate the USA in climate protection regime? New strategies? 3.Dependence can be reduced only by diversification and intelligent use of energy increase energy efficiency, use of REN, nuclear energy,and CCS

12. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Recommendations (II) 4. Global and European context: to be aware of the emerging problems of the transport sector Do we have alternatives to hydrocarbons? How to reduce emissions?

13. Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Not one solution, but some features are clear We need: Energy Efficiency … available at which cost? Natural Gas, Coal … with CO 2 capture & storage? Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs, higher availability? Nuclear Energy … safe waste management? H 2 & Fuel Cells … lower cost and technical advances? Fusion … maybe, in the very long term? Need to pursue a Portfolio approach for policy, technology deployment and R&D Conclusions