1. Scenarios & Developments: The Energy Industry between the Conflicting Priorities of Global Warming, Energy & Security
AGN International World Congress 2013
Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes
Venice, 23 September 2013

2. Starting point #1: Future world energy (Oil) prices will be high and volatile
BP, EIA, Öko-Institut

3. Starting point #1a: Will shale gas emerge as a game changer in Europe
Starting point #1a: Will shale gas emerge as a game changer in Europe? Probably not!
EIA, Energate, EEX, A.T. Kearney, Öko-Institut

4. Starting point #1b: Increasing wealth transfers to energy exporting countries (i.e. Germany)
Destatis, Öko-Institut

5. Starting point #2: The transition phase towards a liberalized market comes to an end
VDEW, BDEW, Öko-Institut 2012

6. Starting point #3a: Significant increase of conventional power investment costs
CERA, Öko-Institut

7. Starting point #3b: Significant decrease of renewable power investment costs (e.g. PV)
Öko-Institut

8. Starting point #4: Ambitious GHG emission reduction targets for the European Union
Öko-Institut 2012

9. Starting point #4a: The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme in a deep crisis
EvoMarkets, EEX, ECX, Öko-Institut

10. Some interim remarks
Business as usual is not an option – in any case
major investments needed, probably higher than ever in the past – due to higher costs
price volatilities creates significant vulnerability – and wealth transfers
new (renewable) technologies create major challenges for business models of the past
climate change and climate policy will not disappear

11. Effects 1a: Record low prices at electricity exchanges (and for large customers)
Evomarkets, EEX, ECX, Öko-Institut

12. Effects 1b: Record high prices for residential/commercial customers
Evomarkets, EEX, ECX, Öko-Institut

13. Effects 2: Much less oil & natural gas imports than assumed in the past?!
European Commission, Öko-Institut

14. The European Dimension
Energy & climate policy towards 2030 & 2050
Heads of State decisions: long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction goals (2050)
Emerging debate on goals, strategies and policies towards 2030 and beyond
Roadmaps (Low-carbon economy, Energy 2050, Transport) from 2011 present background analysis
longer-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets
strategies for a world with >60% power generation from renewables (market design!)
different views and perceptions on competitiveness effects
status quo is not (!) the counterfactual (in many dimensions, also costs), business as usual is not an option
Emerging climate policies/action in many regions of the world
(Ambitious) carbon pricing policies in US States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, South Africa, China etc.

15. European power system: Long-term trends from the Energy Roadmap 2050
1. higher system costs
2. (very) comparable system costs
3. capital-intensive
4. medium-term challenge: storage costs ≈
European Commission, E3MLab 2011, Matthes 2012

16. The new European diversity? Status on (emerging) capacity mechanisms
Öko-Institut 2012

17. The new European diversity? Status on RES support schemes
Öko-Institut 2012

18. Major infrastructure upgrades (in Germany)
Driven by renewables and power trading
Source: NEP 2012 as of August 2012,

19. Future energy and climate policy
The challenges ahead
Limiting the vulnerability to high and volatile fuel prices
energy efficiency will be (back) on the agenda – again and again
electrification as a new approach for transport and heat markets
Transforming power market design
building an enabling framework for the upcoming (necessary) phase of major investments
dealing with an extremely capital-intensive system (transition to a market dominated by capacity payments)
Limiting and re-balancing the cost burdens
For the European Union: re-defining the role of Member States and the Union in energy policy
New approaches to deal with the external dimensions (competitiveness, energy imports etc.)

20. Thank you very much Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes Energy & Climate Division
Berlin Office
Schicklerstraße 5-7
D Berlin