Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal

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Presentation transcript:

Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal Vincent N. Sakwa KMD

Login page http://www.meteo.go.ke/rsmc/index.php Username: swfdp Password: swfdp1

NWP MODELS-REGIONAL PRODUCTS COSMO(7km) WRF(7km) LAKE VICTORIA PRODUCTS ALADIN LA RE-UNION INDIAN OCEAN WAVES UK MET OFFICE LAM MET OFFICE EPS

GLOBAL PRODUCTS NOAA EA PRODUCTS ECMWF PRODUCTS UK MET PRODUCTS TIGGE-GIFS East Africa products for

GUIDANCE PRODUCTS Short range forecasts (1-2 days) Medium range forecasts (3-5 days) Agrometeorology Products (5days) Satellite products Evaluation Form

Risk tables Indicate areas where severe weather is expected, ‘X’ if it applies for the entire area, otherwise specified. Eg. S coast Risk categories: No risk, Low, Medium or High

SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RISK TABLES RSMC-NAIROBI SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RISK TABLES SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) Issue Date: Saturday 19th November 2011 In order to provide more information about the geographical location of the severe event the following convention is adopted when filling in the cells: X for the whole country, N for the northern part, S for the southern part, W for the western part and E for the eastern part. Day 1: Saturday 19th November 2011 Heavy Rain Strong Winds RISK No risk Low risk Medium risk High risk X DRC N,E S

SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) RSMC-NAIROBI SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) Issue Date: 19th November 2011 Valid for: 19th to 20th November 2011 Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table. Degree of confidence: High Day 2: Sunday 20th November 2011

Links to International Centers ECMWF NCEP UK MET OFFICE WMO DWD KMA RSMC-PRETORIA ICPAC ICMWF ACMAD AGRHYMET

Regional and International Centres ECMWF http://www.ecmwf.int NCEP http://wwwt.ncep.noaa.gov UKMO http://www.metoffice.gov.uk WMO http://www.wmo.ch RSMC-Reunion http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/ ACMAD http://www.acmad.ne

Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Products that can be provided include: Site specific “Meteograms”. Precipitation threshold probability charts. Windspeed threshold probability charts. Spaghetti Diagrams. Tropical cyclone tracks forecasts.

Links to National Met Services Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Burundi

Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM Fields available include: Accumulated precipitation (6 and 24-hour) Outgoing longwave radiation Pressure at mean sea level Wet bulb potential temperature at 850 mbar Temperature at 1.5m, 925hPa, 700hPa Wind at 10m, 850hPa, 700hPa, 200hPa Relative humidity at 925hPa, 700hPa

Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM How can you get it? Through a password protected website www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/africa/lam/ The user name is afr_nms, and the password is uk_alam. (ii) The forecast fields are available through EUMETCAST using satellite receiver stations. This allows the data to be viewed using forecaster workstations.

NCEP NWP Products Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm

GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Deterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS Probabilistic , 30mm/day threshold Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009 Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009 Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009 26

Surface and Column Parameters

Real Time Access to Products http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ Daily QPF Probability of P exceedance Rainfall anomaly Last 7 days Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days

Real Time Monitoring 2. Current Status 7 days 30 days 180 days 90 days Daily Evolution

Extreme Forecast Index