1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 06 April 2015 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary

3. Highlights: Last 7 Days Weekly total rainfall exceeded 120mm over portions of eastern Angola, western Zambia, and local areas in northern Botswana and western Kenya. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over portions of eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, portions of Namibia, and Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC, northwestern Angola, portions of Ethiopia and northern Kenya.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over northern Congo- Brazzaville, CAR, portions of South Sudan Republic, local areas in Sudan, many parts of DRC, portions of western Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, northern Tanzania and western Tanzania, eastern Angola, much of Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and local areas in Mozambique and South Africa. In contrast, many places in the Gulf of Guinea countries, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, western Angola, many parts of Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, central and southeastern Nigeria, local areas in Cameroon, western Gabon, eastern CAR, western South Sudan Republic, many parts of DRC, local areas in Angola and Tanzania, portions of Namibia, much of Botswana, and portions of South Africa Madagascar. In contrast, southern Cameroon, much of Angola, eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southeastern South Sudan Republic, portions of Ethiopia, Tanzania, eastern Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique,, local areas in South Africa and Madagascar had below-average rainfall.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over local areas in the Gulf of Guinea countries, portions of southern CAR and northern DRC, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique, and Madagascar. In contrast, Equatorial Guinea, much of Gabon, Angola, portions of DRC, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, portions of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa and southern Mozambique had below- average rainfall.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over parts of Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, local areas in Nigeria, southern CAR, western Gabon, portions of northern DRC, South Sudan Republic, local areas in Ethiopia, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique, and central and southern Madagascar. In contrast, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, eastern Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, Angola, southern DRC, Namibia, portions of Botswana, Zambia, and portions of South Africa had below-average rainfall.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected places reflects moderate to heavy rainfall helped to erode accumulated rainfall deficits over parts of western Zambia (bottom left) and western Kenya (bottom right). In contrast, rainfall deficits continued to prevail over portions of Ethiopia (top right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days The 850hpa wind anomalies (left panel) featured lower-level cyclonic circulation across southern Africa, which may have contributed to the observed above-average rainfall in the region.

10. NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 7 April – 13 April 2015 Week-2: Valid 14 April – 20 April 2015 For week-1 (left panel), there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over portions of Cameroon and Gabon, southern and eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, parts of Kenya, and many parts of Tanzania.

11. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 07 April – 13 April 2015 1.There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC and northwestern Angola: Anomalous lower-level divergence, coupled with anomalous upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 2.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over portions of Namibia: Anomalous lower-level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 3.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over portions of eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, and Tanzania: A broad area of anomalous lower level-convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 4.There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of Ethiopia and northern Kenya: Anomalous lower-level dry northerly flow with its associated lower-level divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

12. Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 14 April – 20 April 2015 1.There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern Cameroon, southern CAR, and portions of northern Congo-Brazzaville and northern DRC: Anomalous lower-level dry northerly flow with its associated divergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 2.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern DRC, and portions of northern Angola and western Tanzania: A broad area of anomalous lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 3.There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over many parts of Ethiopia: Anomalous lower-level southerly flow from the Indian Ocean, with its associated lower-level convergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over northern Congo-Brazzaville, CAR, portions of South Sudan Republic, local areas in Sudan, many parts of DRC, portions of western Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, northern Tanzania and western Tanzania, eastern Angola, much of Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and local areas in Mozambique and South Africa. In contrast, many places in the Gulf of Guinea countries, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, western Angola, many parts of Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall. During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, central and southeastern Nigeria, local areas in Cameroon, western Gabon, eastern CAR, western South Sudan Republic, many parts of DRC, local areas in Angola and Tanzania, portions of Namibia, much of Botswana, and portions of South Africa Madagascar. In contrast, southern Cameroon, much of Angola, eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southeastern South Sudan Republic, portions of Ethiopia, Tanzania, eastern Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique,, local areas in South Africa and Madagascar had below-average rainfall. During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over local areas in the Gulf of Guinea countries, portions of southern CAR and northern DRC, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique, and Madagascar. In contrast, Equatorial Guinea, much of Gabon, Angola, portions of DRC, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, portions of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa and southern Mozambique had below-average rainfall. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over portions of eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, portions of Namibia, and Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC, northwestern Angola, portions of Ethiopia and northern Kenya.