1. © Crown copyright Met Office SWFDP: Met Office support for East Africa Rob Varley – Met Office Operations and Services Director

2. © Crown copyright Met Office SWFDP Support – East Africa SWFDP Aims Improve severe weather forecasting, Improve lead time and reliability of warnings, Improve interaction of NMHSs with media and with disaster management and civil protection authorities, SWFDP East Africa - Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nairobi - lead centre Regional Forecasting Support Centre (RFSC) Dar es Salaam - coordinates and provides specialised products from high-resolution NWP (LAM) over Lake Victoria. Regional centre needs: Model knowledge and interpretation Confidence and accuracy in issuing warnings; including increasing lead times Appreciation of impacts rather than thresholds WMO request for support from the Met Office Global Guidance Unit (GGU)

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Global Guidance Service September 2012 – 4 month pilot Met Office visit KMD and TMA to assess requirements and gain appreciation of working environment Met Office issue daily written guidance across all models available in region Regional centres use information to inform forecasts Feedback on forecasting accuracy February 2013 – Phase 2 KMD and TMA visit Met Office. Shadow forecasters, view facilities and processes Parameters for daily guidance agreed Met Office generate graphics-based guidance and establish Huddle site to share information Daily video conference call to share learning Met Office takes mentoring role, handing over responsibility to regional centres as confidence grows July 2013 KMD and TMA visit Rwanda to assess requirements & re-enforce national cascade

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Video conferencing discussions Met Office GGU Kenya (x region) Tanzania (Lake Victoria)

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Video conference development? Met Office GGU Kenya (x region) Tanzania (Lake Victoria) Rwanda

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Vision..... Met Office GGU Kenya (x region) Tanzania (Lake Victoria) Rwanda Uganda Burundi Ethiopia South Sudan Consensus Support Collaboration

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Timeline Time in project African Met Centres Responsibility for guidance Stage 1: Support -MO visit to NMHS -Needs assessed -Guidance generated -Feedback shared Stage 2: Mentoring - NMHS visit to MO - parameters agreed - video conferencing - mentoring relationship - case study collection - transfer of leadership Stage 3: Collaboration - Video conferencing led by Africa - Validation embedded - Continuous improvement - MO ongoing model data provision & and development GGU Met Office

8. © Crown copyright Met Office