1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Peter Chen
Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division
Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department
WIS Common Alerting Protocol Implementation Workshop
Geneva
6-7 April 2011

2. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere
“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”
Eugenia Kalnay (2003)
From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

3. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007)
“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”
WMO Strategic Thrusts
Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery
Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services
Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards
Strengthening Capacity Building

4. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
SWFDP Main Goals
Improve Severe Weather Forecasting
Improve lead-time of warnings
Improve interaction of NMHSs with users, including media, disaster management and civil protection authorities, and user communities in the various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.)
SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for
preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings
SWFDP Regional Subprojects
Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria)
South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington)
Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries; possible start-up 2011)
Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; possible start-up 2011)
Several others being considered

5. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process
Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project
Global Centers
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs
Disaster Management Centres 5

6. SWFDP – Southern Africa (in progress)
16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion,
Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF
Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria)
Since 2006 6

7. Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)
WMO
Project develop in progress
Focus on:
Strong winds
Heavy precipitation
Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
Users: general public, disaster management,
media, agriculture and fisheries
Domains: (TBC)
5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP
(NWP guidance material)
Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia
Possible start-up 2011

8. Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia
WMO
SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress
Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at:
Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)
Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E
Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA
(NWP guidance material)
Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast
Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi
(TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and
technical support)
National Met. Centres: Cambodia, Lao PDR,
Thailand and Viet Nam
Possible start-up 2011

9. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) main components
Regional Centre
Global Centres
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products TC
Guidance
Products
(risk/probability)
GDPFS
National Met Centres
(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
PWS
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Media
; etc.
Radio; TV

10. CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) in the SWFDP context
SWFDP is helping WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting
to support multi-hazard warning services with improved content (including reliability, lead-time)
Within the generic framework and activities of SWFDP, CAP fits in the "dissemination" part
This could include regional
parts as well a national parts
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
Public Weather Services
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Media
; etc.
Radio; TV
Should become CAP-enabled

11. SWFDP links and synergies
General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.)
Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications
AgM, MMO,
AeM, etc.
Specific Comm. Systems
Flash Flood Guidance
HWR
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Regional Centre
Global Centres
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products TC
Guidance
Products
(risk/probability)
GDPFS
National Met Centres
(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)
PWS
WWRP
Research Projects
Satellite Imagery and Tools
WMO SP
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
; etc.
Radio; TV
Media
Specific Communication
Systems
Disaster Management and Civil Protection

12. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)
Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS)
High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet)
Forecast Verification
Warning Services (e.g. alerting technologies, exchange)
Phase in other developments
Forecasting gaps:
Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

13. SWFDP – paving the way for the future
“ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …
detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; …
“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;”
- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)
Goal:
To further exploit the use of existing products from NWP centres, without the need (burden) of additional investment in development effort.
Focus on severe weather forecasting because NWP products have become more relevant in providing advanced (lead-time) warnings and is complementary to the role of observational data as the basis for issuing warnings.
Notes:
SWFDP is intended to further the implementation of the GDPFS, and not a R&D initiative.
Will be linked to the development of a WMO NWP Strategy for Developing Countries.
Tell us how to fish
Show us how to fish
Fish with us

14. SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services
Thank you!
Peter Chen
Alice Soares
Haleh Kootval