1. SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE
SG-SWFDP
23 Feb 2010

2. The key issue: how to combine data from different ensembles
Until we know more about this, our requirements can only be very usual ones
2 sets of requirements:
Short term
Longer term

3. Short-term requirements
Usual stuff: …

4. Tools for Tropical Convection
Tropical convection is key to severe weather prediction in many developing countries
Global models are generally poor due to parameterized convection
Research required into better diagnostics
Non-hydrostatic hi-res modeling – expensive!
Feature based diagnostics eg convergence lines
More reliable model field indicators eg mid-level moisture fields (found useful in N. Australia)
Downscaling – how to estimate peak convective rainfall accumulations from grid-box average parameterized amounts
Calibration

5. Long term requirements
Possibility of generating products from any combination of TIGGE data-base of EPS
Guidance on how to combine fields usefully
Scientific basis => more research needed!

6. Tropical Cyclone Issues
Position and intensity prediction (probabilistic)
Probabilities relative to user defined thresholds:
Wind strength
Quantitative Precipitation
Surge
Cyclone following and gridded probabilities
Strike probabilities at user defined points
Probability of time of arrival of max rainfall, wind thresholds at user defined points

7. Even longer term requirement: interactive capability which would permit centres, especially regional centres, to generate user driven products, depending on the nature of events and situations
Products using local SWFDP thresholds
Interactive EPSgrams (locations, parameters) …

8. Verification
Improved objective verification of relevant severe weather phenomena and impacts
Including SERA impact verification
Consistent observational data
Methods for verification of warnings which may be probabilistic or « low confidence over a large area »

9. SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE
Timeline:
End of 2010 