1. African Training Desk National Centers for Environmental Predictions Staff Wassila M. Thiaw, Team Leader Vadlamani Kumar Endalkachew Bekele Visitors from NMHSs

2. 2 Training Coverage African Desk NCEP International Desks Week1 Precipitation Probability of exceedance Mission: Support capacity building at NMHSs in Africa: Professional development training in weather and climate and product exchange Provide access to NCEP global data and products to promote decision support services in developing countries: Africa, Afghanistan, Central America New Website Africa Hazards

3. Overview African Training Desk established in 1994 – WMO/VCP –Climate Training Desk – Support to WMO/ CLIPS –Weather Training Desk – Support to WMO/ SWFDP Evolved to focus on DSS:USAID/ FEWSNET & OFDA, USDA Foreign Ag Service, and WMO –Africa, central America, the Caribbean, and Afghanistan –Real time monitoring for humanitarian assistance –Food security –Disaster Risk Reduction –Health Early Warning System 3

4. Provides an opportunity for professional meteorologists in Africa to train at NCEP on operational weather and climate forecasting as part of the US contributions to the WMO VCP Operates a Climate Desk and a Weather Forecasting Desk. Each desk has the capacity to host 6 meteorologists per year arriving at staggered intervals of 2 months for a total of 12. NWS provides a 4-month WMO/VCP fellowship Training is hands-on in an operational setting with an instructor to monitor daily activities and progress Concept of NCEP African Desk

5. Objective is to help strengthen the capacities of the NMHSs in weather and climate forecasting Focus on the operational use and application of numerical model products, climate forecasting and monitoring tools All fellows must submit a WMO VCP application form to WMO and NWS to be considered Concept of NCEP African Desk

6. African Training Desk Partnership –National Weather Service International Activities –WMO –African NMHSs –African regional institutions Resources –NCEP – base –WMO VCP –USAID 6

7. Weather Desk Training Curriculum NAWIPS Use and interpretation of NWP Use of ensembles in operational weather forecasting Write forecast bulletins GIS applications Week-1 forecasts Access and process large data Conduct model verification studies WRF modeling

8. Visitor’Projects 8 Khalid Muwembe, Uganda Met Service Guy Razafindrakoto, Madagascar Met Service

9. International Program web Interface

10. NCEP NWP Products CPC/International Desk

11. Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm NCEP NWP Products

12. GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

13. Ensemble Mean Ensemble Spread Ensemble Products, GEFS, 24 to 72-hr rainfall Forecasts Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009 Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009 Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

14. DeterministicProbabilistic, 30mm/day threshold Deterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009 Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009 Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

15. African Desk Forecast Guidance for Africa

16. Surface and Column Parameters

17. 17 Daily QPF Probability of P exceedance Rainfall anomaly Last 7 days Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days Real Time Access to Products http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/

18. 2. Current Status Real Time Monitoring 7 days30 days 180 days90 days Daily Evolution

19. 19 Collect points, and other relevant data and convert to a point shapefile GFS Forecasts JTWC and NWS Official Tracking Points TRMM Data Sum up for duration of cyclone and convert into A GIS raster Send all to a windows platform and merge into a graphic Email graphic to interested parties and send to web CPC Global Tropical Alert System

20. 20 Automatic Tracking of Global TC Development TC Hina, 23 Feb 2009 South Central Indian Ocean TC Gael, 2-11 Feb 2009 Southwestern Indian Ocean

21. 21 WRF Modeling Experiments for Africa http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/wrf_fcst/safrica/

22. 22 Some output of the wrf model Wrf forecast valid 0600z and 0900z, 17/10/2008 and data time 0000z 16/10/2008 (i.e. the model run was of 0000z of 16/10/2008) The actual observations were as shown on the next slide WRF EMS – Tanzania Experience Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA

23. 23 Lake Forecast (Nested) data time is 0000z, 18/10/2008. For the forecast starting after 0600z on 18/10/2008 to 0900z, 19/10/1008. Compare with the observations to the next slide Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA

24. Future Plan Work with other NOAA agencies to expand the African Training Desk; e.g., aviation weather & marine forecasting Conduct field visits in the form of workshops for former African Desk trainees Continue to work with sister agencies within the US government to improve DSS and early warning systems