1. Current status of development of TIGGE products and support to SWFDP KYOUDA Masayuki 1, YAMAGUCHI Munehiko 2, and MATSUEDA Mio 3 1: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 2: Meteorological Research Institute of JMA (MRI/JMA) 3: University of Oxford and MRI/JMA 10 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting Boulder, NCAR and NOAA/ESRL 25 – 27 June, 2012

2. Contents SWFDP in Southeast Asia – as a GIFS/TIGGE FDP GIFS/TIGGE product for SWFDP provided from MRI/JMA – Tropical Cyclone (TC)–related product – High impact weather (HIW)-related product Improvement on support to SWFDP – Provision of HIW-related product to SWFDP – Change of working area – For a near real-time basis 2

3. SWFDP in Southeast Asia as a GIFS/TIGGE FDP 3

4. Target Severe Weather Events The following events are focused in order of decreasing priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell: tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge); heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography; thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection; cold conditions and frost; extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect. 4

5. SWFDP in SOUTHEAST ASIA Participating Centres – Global Centres : CMA, JMA, and KMA – Regional Centres : Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support Centre), RSMC Tokyo, RSMC New Delhi (tropical cyclone forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) – NMCs : Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Thailand, and Viet Nam 5 The red-colored rectangle is the target domain for SWFDP-SeA. Field phase – Period : One-year period from Summer 2012 to Summer 2013 – Target Severe Weather – Tropical cyclone both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal – Heavy rain

6. Presentation at Regional Training Workshop (1) 6

7. Presentation at Regional Training Workshop (2) 7

8. TC-related product for SWFDP at MRI/JMA 8

9. A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) ” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project. The objectives of the NWP-TCEFP Project are: -to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track forecast data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast -to develop software for a real time multi-model TC forecasting system from data transfer to verification -to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of TC track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi-model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs 9 NWP-TCTEF Project

10. Tropical Cyclone Products - MCGE - Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Homepage (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php) by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA Multi Centre Grand Ensemble by TIGGE Strike Probability Each Track Send email to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp to get ID and passwordthorpex@mri-jma.go.jp 10

11. List of available products - TC track - Deterministic forecastEnsemble forecast Strike ProbabilityPoint Strike Probability 11

12. CMA MSC EMCWF STI JMA KMA NCEP Meteorological Research Institute Regional Centre Hanoi National Met. Centres Cambodia Lao P.D.R.Vietnam Thailand UKMO Multi-Centres Grand Ensemble GIFS Products Daily Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance Feedback - Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation Testify GIFS Products for Operational Use 12

13. Progress to date 2010/04The first release of the Web site for the Project 2010/10Major update of the Web site 2010/10WMO sent the letter to PRs of the Typhoon Committee Members on the Project and Web page 2010/11Presentation of the Web site at the IWTC-6 in La Reunion 2011/08Presentation of the Web site at the THORPEX GIFS/TIGGE WG meeting in Geneva 2011/12TCS sent the questionnaire to the TC Members on the Web site 2012/01TCS received the replies of the questionnaire from 13 TC Members 13 Original source : Progress report for NWP-TCEFP at ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee – 44 th session, Hangzhou, China

14. Results of the questionnaire 14 Original source : Progress report for NWP-TCEFP at ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee – 44 th session, Hangzhou, China

15. HIW-related product for SWFDP at MRI/JMA 15

16. http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_SWFDP.html (for SWFDP regions) precipitation wind temperature 13 areas including 4 SWFDP areas thresholds for prob. forecasts Forecast time up to +15 days Updated everyday! (2-day delay) Multi-center grand ensemble Specification of HIW-related TIGGE product 16

17. Multi-center grand ensemble Verification results of HIW-related TIGGE product 17 Multi-centre grand ensemble shows a better relationship between forecast and observed probabilities (is less overconfident) than single- centre ensembles.

18. Improvement on support to SWFDP 18

19. ECMWF Oxford Univ. Data size: 2.5GB/day for ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO (prcp, t2m, u10m, and v10m on 1.25deg. grid) TIGGE portal: ECMWF Until Feb. 2012: got TIGGE data and made products at MRI Since Mar. 2012: get TIGGE data and make products at Oxford, and then transfer products to MRI web server MRI/JMA Total time: 4.5 hrs Data transfer to Oxford: 1hr Make products @Oxford: 3hr Products transfer to MRI: 0.5hr Total time: 12.5 hrs Data transfer to MRI: 8hr Make products @MRI: 3.5hr Products transfer to MRI: 0hr more stable! Provision of HIW-related TIGGE product for SWFDP 19

20. Change of working area Presently, the TIGGE data transfer and the creation of all TIGGE products are conducted at the University of Oxford. Details of the data transfer are as follows: Data processing at ECMWF, an archieve centre, requires 60 minutes. Data transfer from ECMWF to the University of Oxford requires 15 minutes. It is because it takes quite a long time to get the TIGGE gridded data from ECMWF at MRI. In the case of MRI operation, Data processing at ECMWF requires 60 minutes. Data transfer from ECMWF to MRI requires 7 HOURS. ? Geographical reason ? So hard to reduce the processing time anymore... MRI intends to continue providing its TIGGE products widely. 20

21. For a near real-time basis TIGGE was well established to provide a new world- wide service on distributing the operational NWP and EPS data. – especially on the assumption of data exchanging on a real time. The THORPEX IPO should approve a near real-time TIGGE access for TIGGE product providers such as Met Office (potential) and MRI (current). – As well as UCAR and NCAR at a meningitis prediction pilot study in the Sahel region of Africa. 21

22. Thank you for your kind attention. 22