Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation The Next Era of Global Technological Development Seminar at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy Curtin University WA. Tuesday June 17 th Presented by Mal Bryce, Kelvin Willoughby and Ron Johnston

About Continuity, Breakthroughs and Convergence The Mature Phase of the Digital Era. The Biological Nexus of Technological Innovation. The Resource Efficiency Era. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation More Digital Disruption Breakthroughs in Life Sciences Resource Efficiency The Next 30 years

Presentation 1 The Mature Phase of the Digital Era. Mal Bryce Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Digital Revolution Based on Information Technology and Telecommunications had its beginnings in the early 1970’s and is expected to extend through to the 2040’s. The nature and scope of innovation which it has produced has been unprecedented. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

A “Game Changing” environment….a wholesale shift for society and the economy. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Online Householders Internetworked Community - virtual - physical LOCAL GLOBAL COMMUNICATION INFORMATION EDUCATION COLLABORATION ENTERTAINMENT TRANSACTIONS The Digital World & High Speed Networks. Online Business Online Government Online Community Groups

’s1920’s ’s 1 st wave 2 nd wave 3 rd wave 4 th wave 5 th wave Iron Water power Mechanisation Textiles Steam Power And Railroads Steel Electricity Chemicals Heavy Engineering Oil Automobiles Petrochemicals Aviation Space Digital Networks Software Information Technology Telecommunications Innovation Waves of Innovation 1770’s – 2030’s 6th wave Nano Technology Bio Technology Bio Mimicry Resource Efficiency Re Newable Energy Industrial ecology

Classic Phases of the ICT Revolution 1970’s – 2040’s Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution Turning point INSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIOD Time big-bang Next big-bang 50 – 60 YEARS IrruptionFrenzySynergyMaturity ?? SOURCE: Perez, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”

Digital Disruption is widespread. Almost everything we do is impacted. The nature of consumption, competition, and work has changed. The balance of power between organizations and individuals has changed. Major new competitive pressure has arrived. Disruption varies across sectors and geography. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Age of High Speed Networks mean: More people, more data, more locations “Online” and faster outcomes Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Globally from 2 Billion, (in 2010) the number of people online will double and treble quickly. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Drivers for Further Digital Disruption Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Rollout of High Speed Networks Infrastructure for Gigabits and 100’s of Megabits National retrofit for the copper telephone network. The best possible mix of fibre glass, wireless and satellite. Infrastructure for global competitiveness. Eg: Telstra to increase its data traffic One Thousand fold between 2011 and 2020 Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Exponential Growth of Social Media. Customer service becomes customer intimacy By 2012 > 1billion people per day were accessing Facebook. Facebook is now second only to Google for Internet activity. Growth Rate for Twitter is greater than Facebook. Customer profiling is ubiquitous. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Mobility of devices, apps and data services Smart phones and tablets are the basis of a mobility revolution. The Age of the App has arrived Cheap to access Meet specific needs Keep track of their owners Generate massive volumes of data. Globally (by 2013) 30% of all mobile phones were smart phones. One in seven online searches is now from a mobile device. Wearable computers for enhanced reality are next. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Big Data and Analytics Unprecedented volumes of data are now generated daily on a global basis. Big Data allows large volumes of data to be analysed to identify trends and patterns. Current data is now cross referenced with previous data. Supercomputing handles the mountain of data. Data literate people are in increasing demand. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Devolution of Cloud Computing Origins in the surplus capacity of the Big Five. Outsourcing takes over from traditional “in-house” IT Infrastructure. Expected to be a Trillion Dollar business activity by 2015’ Delivers new services, cost reductions and support for remote working patterns. Provides superior security services. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Internet of Things 26 Billion THINGS connected to the Net by 2020 ?? (Gartner Group) Objects, animals and humans automatically transferring data. Mountains of data will result. Billions of sensors and transponders interacting with; the internal state of things the external environment. Future concerns about data privacy. Sovereignty and security. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Maturity of eCommerce Basic commercial processes remain the same. Technology has changed. By 2013 eCommerce (globally) reached a turnover > $1.3 Trillion. Now infinite options to buy goods and services online. Key Message: Adapt or Disappear. Unsolicited and targeted advertising push is of growing concern. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

A Wave of New Content: entertainment, visualisation and video collaboration Telepresence, video collaboration and 3D come of age. Dramatic changes for traditional media. Smart Glasses leaders in wearable computers ? Spontaneous citizen Video footage enters the arena. Since the mid 90’s Online Gaming has become a $70 Billion industry activity. Consumers looking for interactive involvement in entertainment. Migration of artists and audiences to new media Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Cyber Security A new playground for digitally savvy criminals. Vulnerability of Online services. Limitations of national “Statute Law” Identity theft and the need for certification. New generation of end user “security services”. Cyber warfare and new threats to national security. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Conclusions Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Numerous Technologies and Disciplines have converged with Informatics eg: Bioinformatics Geoinformatics Hydroinformatics Business informatics Engineering informatics Environmental informatics Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

High Speed Networks and the new digital services have become basic sinews of our economy. Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Links are now undeniable

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation More Digital Disruption Breakthroughs in Life Sciences Resource Efficiency Era The Next 30 years

Presentation 2 The Biological Nexus of Technological Innovation. Kelvin Willoughby Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

For One Baby, Life Begins with Genome Revealed How a California father made an end run around medicine to decode his son’s DNA. Antonio Regalado, MIT Technology Review, June 13, An infant delivered last week in California appears to be the first healthy person ever born in the U.S. with his entire genetic makeup deciphered in advance. His father, Razib Khan, is a graduate student and professional blogger on genetics who says he worked out a rough draft of his son’s genome early this year in a do-it- yourself fashion after managing to obtain a tissue sample from the placenta of the unborn baby during the second trimester. … The idea of sequencing fetuses is extremely new and sensitive. Khan, who had no real medical reason to learn his son’s DNA code, says sequencing his son in utero “was more cool than practical.” He did it to show where technology is headed and because he likes “pushing the envelope.”

Myriad Genetics Posts Key myPath Melanoma Data - Analyst Blog NASDAQ --- Zacks.com, June 03, Myriad Genetics, Inc. ( MYGN ) reported results from a crucial clinical validation study of its myPath Melanoma test at the 2014 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago. The Myriad myPath Melanoma test is a clinically validated gene expression molecular test that has been designed to differentiate malignant melanoma from benign skin lesions, with a high level of accuracy. With certain melanomas imitating benign skin lesions, it becomes quite difficult for clinicians to diagnose melanoma in patients accurately. In such situations, Myriad myPath Melanoma comes of help as it has the ability to discriminate malignant melanoma from benign skin lesions, as has been observed in the validation study. The test differentiates between the two diseases by using traditional dermatopathology as a gold standard. A quick and accurate diagnosis of potentially fatal melanoma is now possible, thanks to Myriad myPath Melanoma.

U.S. organizations signing: American Farm Bureau Federation; National Association of Wheat Growers; National Farmers Union; North American Millers' Association and U.S. Wheat Associates. Canadian signatories: Canadian National Millers Association; Cereals Canada; Grain Farmers of Ontario; Grain Growers of Canada and Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association. Australian signatories: AgForce Queensland; Grain Growers Limited; Grain Producers Australia; Grain Producers SA; Pastoral and Graziers Association of Western Australia and Victorian Farmers Federations Grains Group.

Metabolix biopolymers are based on polyhydroxyalkanoate polymers (PHAs) and are made by fermentation using renewable carbon based feedstocks, making them 100% biobased in neat form. Metabolix has developed leading technology for production of a broad range of PHA biopolymers as evidenced by an industry leading intellectual property portfolio and continues to innovate further to expand the range of performance and production economics of our PHA biopolymers.

© Prof. Kelvin W. Willoughby, 2005.

Technologies categorized by the types of MEANS they incorporate An approach to categorizing biology-related technologies Technologies categorized by the types of ENDS they serve

Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate Fields of Bioscience Technology Biotechnology Medical Technology Bio-systems Technology Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related ENDS they serve Bioscience Technology

 2006 Professor Kelvin W. Willoughby. Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate Fields of Bioscience Technology Biotechnology Medical Technology Bio-systems Technology Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related ENDS they serve “Life Sciences”

Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate Fields of Bioscience Technology Biotechnology Medical Technology Bio-systems Technology Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related ENDS they serve Bioscience Technology Medical Devices Agri-bio Technology Bio-industrial Technology Pharmaceuticals Sub-categorized by the types of bio-related means they incorporate Sub-categorized by the types of bio-related applications they express

Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate Fields of Bioscience Technology Biotechnology Medical Technology Bio-systems Technology Technologies categorized by the types of bio-related ENDS they serve Bioscience Technology Medical Devices Agri-bio Technology Bio-industrial Technology Pharmaceuticals Molecular biology, genomics, proteomics Drug delivery devices, Cardiac rhythm devices Monoclonal antibody based diagnostics Fermentation, Industrial bioprocessing, Food processing. Illustrative Examples (selections only) Pharmacologically active GMOs Nutritionally enhanced food “Nutraceuticals” Bio-pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals (traditional) Veterinary technologies Agri-biotech Diagnostic devices, Medical biosensors Bio-materials Bio-fibers Bio-fuels / Bio-energy Bio-security technologies Bio-sensors

1800s 1900s Today’s advances leverage the accomplishments of previous ages, products, and technologies. “Bio” business …

U.S. Bioscience and Total Private Sector Employment, , Indexed (2001 = 100) Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechno logy Industry Organization, 2012)

Employment Trends in the Biosciences and Other Knowledge-intensive Industries, Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechno logy Industry Organization, 2012)

Change in Real Average Annual Wages, United States, Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechno logy Industry Organization, 2012)

U.S. Employment by Bioscience Subsector, Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechno logy Industry Organization, 2012)

Food Minnesota Life Science Community NanoTech & Materials Science Genomics, Proteomics & High Throughput Biology Bioinformatics & Systems Biology Imaging / Navigation Catalysis & Synthesis (Biological & Chemical) Enabling Knowledge Clusters EducationInfrastructurePolicy Foundational Capabilities Minnesota Industries v.19jan09 Renew- able Energy Renew- able Materials Medical Devices Biologics/ Biopharma Animal Health Commercialization Catalysts Int’l Business Support Center Component/Service Suppliers Academic Tech Transfer Acceleration/ Incubation Funding Leadership Talent Skilled Workforce Bioengineering & Clinical Capabilities

Modes of Activity, Bioscience Technology Firms, New York, Late 1990s Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function. Source: Willoughby

Modes of Activity, Bioscience Technology Firms, Utah, Late 1990s Source: Willoughby Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function.

Variations in Modes of Activity Between Industry Sectors, Bioscience Technology Firms Source: Willoughby Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function. New York, Late 1990s

Source: Willoughby Technological Diversification by Bioscience-Technology Firms New York State, Late 1990s Primary Field of Technology Number of Firms in Population % of Population Active in Other Fields of Bioscience- Technology % of "C" Active in Biotechnology Biotechnology 14057%100% Pharmaceuticals 7455%85% Medical Devices 10921%91% Life-Systems Technology 4088%80%

Source: Willoughby

“Take Away” Themes Biology is an emerging nexus zone of technological innovation. The business of bioscience-technology plays an increasingly significant role the wider economy and in a range of other industries. The business of bioscience-technology may provide great leverage for regional wealth generation. Communities compete with one another to become bio-business zones. Successful bioscience-technology firms tend to be multi-functional, interdisciplinary, and communicative.

Presentation 3 The Resource Efficiency Era: Doing so much more with Less Ron Johnston Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Our Understanding of Technology 1.Anything that is in the world when you are born is a natural part of the way the world works 2.Anything that is invented between when you are fifteen and forty is new, exciting and you can probably get a career out of it 3.Anything invented after you are forty is against the natural order of things Douglas Adams

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation The Challenge of Predicting Technology and its Effects Bell’s talking telegraph only creates interest in scientific circles; as a toy it is beautiful; but its commercial value will be limited (Elisha Gray, 1876) The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty (Michigan Bank manager to Henry Ford, 1908) Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? (Jack Warner, 1930) There is a world market for about five computers (Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943) Guitar music is on the way out (Decca Records rejecting Beatles, 1962) If anything will remain unchanged, it is the role of women (David Riesman, 1967) Before the year 2000 is over, the first child will have been born on the moon (Werner von Braun, 1972) The Internet is full. Go away. (T-shirt, 1995) No-one will buy anything over the Web (Newsweek, 1995) Spam will be gone within two years (Bill Gates, 2004)

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Predicting Technology and its Effects – Technological Trends and National Policy (1937) Needs focussed, identified thirteen key technologies within a year time horizon Identified predicted uses, market timing and impact, and social implications Television, facsimile transmission, air conditioning, mechanical cotton picker, synthetic rubber – essentially correct on all counts Cotton/wool substitute and photo-electric eye – optimistic timing, different form and uses Steep flight aircraft, prefabricated housing, automobile trailers, tray agriculture, gasoline from coal - essentially wrong on all counts

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Our Challenge (2014) Global population growth – 2.5B in 1943, 7.2B today, B by B people in China, India and other developing counties will enter the ‘middle class’ by 2030 Increased demand on already constrained resources of food, water, energy and minerals Non-sustainability of many current industrial practices, and the growing levels of pollution and environmental degradation Climate change

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Our Opportunity (2014) The need to achieve a Factor Ten increase in the efficiency of resource use will be a major driver of economic activity in the next 20 years. Factor Ten is the radical idea that humanity must reduce resource turnover by 90 percent on a global scale within the next 30 to 50 years. To achieve dematerialisation, within the next generation human energy use must decrease by a factor of 10 while resource productivity and efficiency must increase by a factor of 10. This will lead to transformation of resource dependency and advantage, the creation of a new technological landscape and shifts in the global factors of production.

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Sources of Factor Ten Productivity Growth Substitution – lighter stronger, cheaper, lower Waste reduction Circularity – closed-loop use of resources Optimisation – predictive and real-time analytics to reduce resource requirements and increase asset use Virtualisation – resources as a service Heck and Rogers, Resource Revolution, Harcourt, 2014

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Case Study – Transport Current massive inefficiencies in car-based transport  Usage - 95% of time unused  Fuel consumption – 86% of fuel never reaches the wheels  Average occupancy – 1.6 people  Motorways operating at peak capacity are less than 10% covered by cars  Peak capacity is achieved only 4-5% of the day Opportunities  Car sharing  Smart roads  New fuels - electric  Efficient batteries  3-D printed manufacture

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Case Study – Smart Agriculture Networks of low-cost sensors, actuators and wireless networks for data collection and process monitoring of crops and livestock Robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks, such as harvesting fruit and controlling weeds and pests Vehicles that can navigate and operate with reduced or no human control to herd livestock and harvest crops The simulation of real-time agricultural processes using data and algorithms Inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices with high-speed internet connectivity to the farmer in the field Intelligent software that can perform farm planning tasks, and support decision-making and optimize large-scale production processes.

Australian Centre for Innovation Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation Case Study – and Smart Food Smart packaging to enhance life and detect breakdown Interactive labelling to advise on nutrition, energy load, etc Food tracking and management systems to minimise wastage Decentralised and localised food production (vertical gardens)