Recession and Recovery: A Look Into Our Economic Future First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference and Expo Jacksonville, FL March 23 rd, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Recession and Recovery: A Look Into Our Economic Future First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference and Expo Jacksonville, FL March 23 rd, 2010

Credit Freeze Financial Market Sclerosis that developed into Credit Infarction Plunged the Economy Deep into Recession Quadruple Policy Bypass Averted a Worse Fate Interest Rate Cuts/ Quantitative Stimulus Stimulus Package I T.A.R.P. Stimulus Package II Rehabilitation / Ugly scar

U.S. Forecast U.S. has endured a Severe Recession The Great Recession is now over So why doesnt it feel like it? The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass Recovery and rehabilitation underway Ugly scar on prominent display and slow to fade Labor market will take a long time to recover

U.S. Forecast What will be the shape of the recession and recovery? Alphabet soup: U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped Sports equipment: Hockey stick

U.S. Economic Outlook 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast

U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 1 st Quarter 2010 Forecast 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate * Consumer Price Index % Chg, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Total Consumption % Chg, Annual Rate

Capital Continues to Flow into the U.S. Foreign countries have purchased U.S. government bonds at record levels. Will this continue as the U.S. runs deficits measured in the trillions of dollars? A return to crowding out?

Foreign Ownership of US Treasury Bonds Billions of Dollars Dec Dec Mar Jun Jun Jun Total outstanding Foreign- owned Percent foreign- owned Percent foreign official

U.S. Forecast Greatest risks to U.S. Economy may come from policy Sky Mall Policy

U.S. Forecast

Sky Mall Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2008 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Stimulus act) Health Care Reform?

A look at the housing data: January 1994– January 2010

Florida Forecast Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling. Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector Economic recovery in Q Labor market to remain in a funk Short-run demographics hinder recovery Long run population growth rates lower

Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona Gainesville 0.86 Jacksonville 1.04 Lakeland 1.62 Miami 0.67 Naples 1.04 Ocala 2.31 Orlando 1.43 Palm Bay 0.58 Pensacola 0.49 Tallahassee 0.86 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast

Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 1.16 Gainesville 0.68 Jacksonville 1.62 Lakeland 1.07 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.25 Ocala 1.53 Orlando 2.11 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 0.68 Tallahassee 0.59 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast

Post-recession Outlook for Florida and Jacksonville in 2010

Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness Thank you

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