1. U.S., Florida & Miami Economic Update 2016 Outlook Summit Coral Gables, FL January 20 th, 2016

2. The Rules of the Game Matter  They change the way the players play the game.  They can change the outcome of the game itself.  Freeze tag

3. The Rules of the Game Matter Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth by John W. Dawson and John J. Seater Journal of Economic Growth (2013) 18:137-177 Examined Economic Growth and Productivity 1949-2005

5. The Rules of the Game Matter Results: Regulations have reduced real GDP growth an average of 2% per year. Real GDP in 2005 would have been $53.9 trillion instead of the $15.1 trillion

6. The Rules of the Game Matter 2013 CFR 175,000 Dodd-Frank law 2,300 pages – 22,296 pages of rules so far – Another 13,000 on the way Affordable Care Act

7. The Rules of the Game Matter Dan Gallagher, Commissioner of the SEC: “And really, to me, Bob, the burden isn’t necessarily as much as the regulations that came from Dodd-Frank. Some of them are just completely nonsensical. I mean, nothing to do with the financial crisis, aren’t really germane to the function of the SEC and that’s what happens when you get a runaway piece of legislation.”

10.  Is the Chinese economy a pagoda of cards?  Economy slowing  Stock market plunge (again)  Desperate attempts to stop the decline  Depreciation of the Yuan Global Factors - China

11.  IMF revised down 2015 and 2016 world growth outlook  2015: 3.1%, 2016: 3.6%  Advanced economies  2015: 2.0%, 2016: 2.2%  Latin America/Caribbean sub 2% outlook  China continues to slow Global Factors - ROW

12.  Brazil – worst recession in 100+ years  Canadian recession 1 st half 2015  Much stronger U.S. Dollar  U.S. Dollar up nearly 55% against the Brazilian Real over the past year  U.S. Dollar up more than 21% against the Canadian Dollar over the past year Global Factors - ROW

13.  Greece and the Euro  All the Greek bailouts, haircut & the election are stays of execution and not pardons  The Euro still facing greatest threat since inception.  Crisis on back burner again, for now. Global Factors - Eurozone

14. Florida Housing Market  Housing market recovery continues  Double-digit price appreciation has returned  Investors chasing shrinking pool of distressed properties  Housing finance still an issue

15. 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015201620172018 GDP % Change, Annual Rate 3.92.00.62.12.42.32.5 Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate 3.01.6-0.80.02.12.42.6 Consumer Sentiment 94.290.790.992.192.692.392.6 Consumption % Change, Annual Rate 3.63.01.73.12.82.92.6 U.S. Forecast

16.  Will the Bankruptcy of Sky Mall Put an End to Sky Mall™ Policies?  Sky Mall™ Policy:  An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

17. U.S. Forecast

18.  Sky Mall™ Policies:  T.A.R.P.  Foreclosure Prevention Act 2009  ARRA of 2009  Affordable Care Act  Dodd-Frank

19. U.S. Forecast

26. Florida Forecast

35. 2015-2018 Averages; Q4 2015 Forecast Florida Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction6.6 Professional & Business Services3.7 Trade, Transportation & Utilities3.4 Leisure & Hospitality2.8 Education-Health Services2.6 Manufacturing1.0 Financial0.9 State & Local Government0.8 Information0.5 Federal Government-0.2

36. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.5--- Deltona 1.18 Gainesville 0.811 Jacksonville 1.45 Lakeland 1.19 Miami 1.17 Naples 2.51 Ocala 1.63 Orlando 2.12 Palm Bay 1.26 Pensacola 0.812 Tallahassee 1.110 Tampa 1.54 2015-2018 Averages; Q4 2015 Forecast

37. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 2.3--- Deltona 1.79 Gainesville 1.511 Jacksonville 2.08 Lakeland 2.06 Miami 2.07 Naples 3.01 Ocala 2.53 Orlando 2.92 Palm Bay 2.15 Pensacola 1.510 Tallahassee 1.512 Tampa 2.44 2015-2018 Averages; Q4 2015 Forecast

38. Miami Forecast

42. 2015-2018 Averages; Q4 2015 Forecast Miami Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction6.4 Professional & Business Services4.1 Leisure & Hospitality2.4 Education-Health Services2.0 Trade, Transportation & Utilities1.4 Financial0.7 Information0.5 State & Local Government0.5 Manufacturing0.3 Federal Government-0.6

43. 2016 Economic Outlook

44. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) 823-1453 Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDUwww.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith Thank you