1. Economic Outlook Las Vegas, NV November 29th, 2018

2. Trump Administration
How are the policies of the Trump administration impacting the U.S. economic outlook?
Is Trump lifting us “up where we belong?”

3. Trump Administration

4. Trump Administration

5. Impact of the Trump Administration
Fiscal Policy:
Spending plus tax cuts
$1 trillion infrastructure plan(?)
Boost in defense spending

6. Trump Administration Tax reform Personal Corporate Lower tax rates
Nearly doubles standard deduction
Caps mortgage and SALT deductions
Corporate
Tax rate 35% to 21%
15.5%
Immediate expensing for small business
Pass through income

7. Trump Administration Much needed regulatory relief
22 deregulatory actions for every 1 regulatory action
Agencies have:
Withdrawn 653 regulations
244 regulations made inactive
700 regulations delayed

8. The Rules of the Game Matter
Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth
by John W. Dawson and John J. Seater
Journal of Economic Growth (2013) 18:
Examined Economic Growth and Productivity

10. The Rules of the Game Matter
Results:
Regulations have reduced real GDP growth an average of 2% per year.
Real GDP in would have been $53.9 trillion instead of the $15.1 trillion

11. The Rules of the Game Matter
Results:
Productivity is impacted by regulatory growth
The conundrum of declining productivity in the 1970’s attributable to a doubling in the number of pages of regulation.

12. Trump Administration Trade policy a potential pitfall
Threats of tariffs and other trade barriers in response to unfair trade practices and currency manipulation
Trade war happening?

13. Trump Administration
New administration has thus far avoided SkyMall™ Policies
Sky Mall™ Policy:
An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

14. U.S. Forecast

15. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policies: T.A.R.P.
Foreclosure Prevention Act 2009
ARRA of 2009
Affordable Care Act
Dodd-Frank

18. U.S. Forecast

19. U.S. Forecast

20. U.S. Forecast

21. U.S. Forecast

22. U.S. Forecast

23. U.S. Forecast
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GDP
% Change, Annual Rate
1.5
2.4
3.1
3.3
2.8
Consumer Price Index
1.3
2.1
2.5
2.6
Consumer Sentiment
91.8
94.4
95.7
97.5
Consumption
2.7
3.2
3.7
3.5

24. Quarterly Forecast Publications Available
Florida & Metro Forecast
U.S. Forecast
Download at:

25. Institute for Economic Competitiveness
Thank you
Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
Director
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
(407)