1. Economic Outlook Orlando, FL January 5 th, 2010

2. U.S. Forecast  U.S. has endured a Severe Recession  The “Great Recession” is now over  So why doesn’t it feel like it?  The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass  Recovery and rehabilitation underway  Ugly “scar” on prominent display and slow to fade  Labor market will take a long time to recover

3. U.S. Forecast  What will be the shape of the recession and recovery?  Alphabet soup:  U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped?  Sports equipment:  Hockey stick?

4. U.S. Economic Outlook 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast

5. U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate 2.22.1*1.42.11.82.4 Consumer Price Index % Chg, Annual Rate 1.91.80.30.61.71.5 Consumer Sentiment 68.4 70.873.775.376.276.8 Total Consumption % Chg, Annual Rate 2.00.2-0.41.13.02.6

8. A look at the Florida housing data: November 2009 Snapshot

9. Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268,694 61 $139,000$158,200-12 Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167,900-18 Gainesville 1669084$167,000$160,0004 Punta Gorda 27017455$100,000$97,7002 Pensacola 33019173$150,500$152,100 Jacksonville 1,04261270$149,200$154,300-3 Tallahassee 17410074$162,000$170,000-5 Florida Sales Report – November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes

10. Florida Sales Report – November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268,694 61 $139,000$158,200-12 Ocala 25115958$87,800$122,800-29 Fort Lauderdale 70750739$182,100$229,100-21 Miami 45536624$184,800$224,700-18 Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167,900-18 Melbourne-Titusville- Palm Bay 39132819$105,000$126,700-17

11. A look at the housing data: January 1994– November 2009

16. Florida Forecast  Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling.  Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector  Economic recovery in Q1 2010.  Labor market to remain in a funk  Short-run demographics hinder recovery  Long run population growth rates lower

22. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 0.9--- Deltona 0.210 Gainesville 0.86 Jacksonville 1.04 Lakeland 1.62 Miami 0.67 Naples 1.04 Ocala 2.31 Orlando 1.43 Palm Bay 0.58 Pensacola 0.49 Tallahassee 0.86 Tampa 0.95 2010-2013 Averages; Q4 2009 Forecast

23. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.6--- Deltona 1.16 Gainesville 0.68 Jacksonville 1.62 Lakeland 1.07 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.25 Ocala 1.53 Orlando 2.11 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 0.68 Tallahassee 0.59 Tampa 1.62 2010-2013 Averages; Q4 2009 Forecast

24. ORLANDO Sector % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 4.8 Manufacturing 2.5 Education-Health Services 2.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 Leisure 1.9 Other Services 1.4 State & Local Government 1.3 Financial 0.8 Information 0.5 Construction & Mining 0.4 Federal Government -0.6

25. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) 823-1453 Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU Thank you